Fantasy Baseball: Daily Statistical Nuances from the Nomad-Mat Latos

Fantasy Baseball: Statistical Nuances from the Nomad-Mat Latosby Michael Pichan (with contributions from Hecman)I recently read that Hecman has Reds SP Mat Latos ranked higher then 52 other Fantasy Baseball Experts over at FantasyPros.com, and I couldn't believe my eyes. Hecman has Mat Latos as the 53rd player off the board, and ranks Latos as the 15th best starting pitcher. Am I the crazy one, or is Hecman smoking some Brazilan ganja  he smuggled back with him from his recent vacation, (which would explain his love for Latos)?Here is Hecman's take on Mat Latos going into 2013:Mat Latos (SP – CIN)Hector Roman | @hecmanhoopsExpert Rank: #53 Consensus: #66 ADP: #87   Latos’ first and second half splits tell the story and don’t adequately reflect how stellar he was last season. Interestingly, he threw exactly 104.2 innings both Pre and Post-All Star Break in 2012. Pre-All Star break he sported a 4.13 ERA due mostly to a rough April and May. Post-All Star break Latos lowered his ERA to 2.84. His overall 1.16 WHIP and 185 Ks while tossing 209.1 innings also is a huge plus. Lastly, pitching for a contender, Latos is a solid candidate for 16+ wins. Don’t underestimate him on draft day! – Hector RomanMy take on Mat Latos going into 2013 (Check out my rankings of Latos at Fantasy Pros):Hecman makes some good points, but there are some underlying stats that lead me to believe that Latos' 2012 season may be his ceiling, a ceiling that I believe he will not match in 2013. The obvious thing working against Latos is his home park. Great American Ball Park (GABP) has the fourth highest park factor rating in all of baseball, and the second highest park factor of National League parks between 2010-2012, (according to Parkfactors.com).Of the pitchers who threw 180 plus innings, Mat Latos had the 18 th highest fly ball rate. Being a fly ball pitcher, in a park that allows 135 home runs for every 100 home runs produced in the average MLB park scares me more then if I were Dusty Baker going for a physical. If Latos’ generous HR/FB, and hitter friendly home park aren’t enough to make you shy away from drafting Mat Latos consider this: Latos’ K/9 rate, K/BB, fastball velocity, and swinging strike percent have all declined the last three seasons, while his ERA, FIP, and xFIP have increased.Although Latos had a relatively good season in 2012 it appears that he is trending in the opposite direction. If you couple these three years of peripheral declines with his hitter friendly home park it seems more sensible to be skeptical of your projections on Mat Latos going into 2013. Add in these two additional facts: One, the Reds defense takes a hit with Drew Stubbs (2012:DRS 2 UZR 6.8) being replaced in center field with former Indians Right Fielder Shin-Soo Choo (2012: DRS -12/UZR -17.0), which should surely affect Latos’ ERA, in a negative way. And, Secondly, if your physical appearance garners someone to create a negative twitter account, in this case @Fat_Mat_Latos, that can not give you a good feeling in your gut about Mat Latos’ prospects of improving, or even matching his 2012 output. In Hecman's defense, he still has Mat Latos as SP 2 valued player, which could still be a possibility.  I just have a hard time believing he will, and I'd rather take a chance on some of the other starting pitchers that could possibly be drafted a tad later, in the likes of Chris Sale, Kris Medlen, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, or Jordan Zimmermann, to name a few. A few pitchers that I know Hecman is "high" on as well. What side are you on? Is Latos a solid SP2 in Fantasy Baseball this season for you? Are you avoiding Latos in drafts? Look forward to this debate continuing in the comments section below. For a look at players that may be more accurately undervalued, check out Fantasy Pros recent article Undervalued Players for 2013