Another Tuesday, another Category Impact article for the wonderful tool that is the Seasonal Playbook Pro. If you aren’t a subscriber, not only are you not reading this, but you are behind others who are utilizing it. A few guys in this week’s piece are more heavily owned than what I’m used to in writing this article, but when I saw ownership percentages on ESPN sites, I figured they still deserved to be placed in this article. Welington Castillo and Chris Owings are raking. Gerardo Parra is running. Jason Hammel is dealing. Tanner Roark is coming off the best start of his career, but the strikeout numbers are a false light for fantasy owners.
Without further ado, let’s get into it. As always, hit me up on Twitter (@colbyrconway) if you have any questions. Here we go!
Welington Castillo, C ARI— Castillo is currently the top fantasy performer at his position. Why the hell is he only owned in 43 percent of ESPN leagues? He’s hitting .290 with six home runs on the year and four have come within the last week. He’s hitting in the heart of the Arizona order, which is going to be very lucrative in 2016. How is he not owned more? Obviously he won’t be able to sustain this sort of scolding hot streak, but it’s worth noting that his BABIP is roughly 20 points under his career line, showing that he still may be getting a tad unlucky in 2016. If Castillo is available in your league, you need to pick him up immediately. He could also make for a trade-high candidate, because his batting average dropped over 40 points after the All-Star break in 2015. However, for his career, his batting average in the second half is 16 points better. The Arizona coaching staff said they were going to rest Castillo more often to prevent fatigue, which they should. Once again, this guy is raking right now and he can immediately impact quite a few categories for your team.
Gerardo Parra, OF COL— Much like Castillo, Parra is also hot right now. He is 6-for-10 in his last two games, and he’s hit safely in nine of his last 12. His fantasy value sees a large increase when he is leading off, but unfortunately, those days could be coming to an end rather soon. Charlie Blackmon will return to the leadoff role when he returns from a toe injury, but Parra is still valuable in fantasy formats when he isn’t leading off. With what exactly is Parra going to help you? Well, he’s a .277 career hitter who has hit under .270 only three times in his eight-year career. 23 of his 57 career home runs have come in the past two years, and his home park is now the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Parra has also stolen nine or more bases in each of the last five seasons. The speedy outfielder already has five stolen bases in just 18 games this season, putting himself in the conversation of setting a new career-high in stolen bases for a season. He’s owned in over half of ESPN leagues, but he’s still available in more leagues than he should be.
Jason Hammel, SP CHC— Jake Arrieta is dominating all the headlines among the Chicago pitching staff, which he rightfully should. However, Jason Hammel is a guy who demands your attention. His ownership over the past week or so has dramatically increased, which it rightfully should. He’s rattled off four straight quality starts, allowing just two earned runs on 16 hits in 24 innings during the 2016 campaign. He’s also punched out 22 batters during that span. His ERA sits at 0.75 on the season, just a few points above teammate Jake Arrieta’s 0.68 ERA. The only thing Hammel hasn’t been great at this season is limiting the walks, because he’s walked nine in 24 innings. There is no doubt that he is going to regress at some point, but at least for now, he looks poised for his best season yet. He’s limiting batters to a .195 average, which is way below his career mark of .268. As long as he can stay healthy, his is going to set a new career high in wins for a season. His current high is 10, which he’s done four times during his career. The Chicago offense is going to get him plenty of runs, so don’t be surprised when Hammel ends the season right around 15 wins. Like the other guys in this piece, if he’s available, go get him. Now.
Chris Owings, OF ARI— Owings is hot right now, making him a quality add for those in NL-only or deeper mixed league formats. He doesn’t carry much pop (10 career homers in 277 games) but he does provide a little bit of speed and the ability to get red hot in streaks. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .346 (9-for-26) with six runs scored, four RBI and three stolen bases. His primary asset over the course of the season is speed. He swiped 16 bags in 147 games last season, and he already has three in 19 contests this season. The injury to A.J. Pollock opens up regular time for Owings, which could be very profitable for those who roster Owings. If you’re in a 10-team mixed league, possible even 12 teams, don’t be too concerned with going to swipe Owings, but if your league has more than 12 teams or is NL-only, Owings is a guy who could be a sneaky addition for you. Sure, he hit a career worst .227 last season, but that was likely in part to being unlucky. His BABIP was under his career mark, so his average by seasons end should be sitting in the .260 range.
Tanner Roark, SP WAS— To be completely honest with you, if it weren’t for his last start, I probably wouldn’t be writing about Roark in this piece. However, I will tell you that his 15-strikeout performance against the Minnesota Twins was a complete outlier. It says more about the Twins than it does Roark and his repertoire. Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park are all viable power threats in the Minnesota lineup, but they are all prone to striking out in bunches. His K/9 across 664 minor league innings was 7.7, while his career mark in the majors is 6.32. Hey, that 6.32 mark includes that 15 strikeout performance. Roark is not and hasn’t been a strikeout pitcher, so while it’s great that he punched out that many Twins, it’s not something fantasy owners should get used to. Also, uber-prospect Lucas Giolito is in the minors and the clock is ticking until he gets the call up. When that happens, it will likely be Roark who gets bounced from the rotation. What should you do with this guy? Pick him up for the time being, but he’s going to be a guy who you are going to want to trade at some point, because when Gioloto comes up, Roark’s fantasy value is doomed to take a noticeable hit. While he is starting, he is going to help you in wins, because the Washington Nationals are playing extremely solid baseball.
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