Baseball is full of statistics and with sabermetrics becoming even more involved in fantasy than ever before the question many have is which matter and which don’t. In the Fantasy Alarm 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Ray Flowers goes over which baseball splits matter and which ones don’t when trying to decipher the statistics of a player and identify trends that could indicate a rise or fall in production or matchup.

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2016 MLB Draft Guide: Which Splits Matter

By: Ray Flowers

Many in the fantasy game seem to think that splits only matter if you play DFS. Nonsense. Splits are meaningful in all fantasy leagues. That is, if you are in a “real” league, one that allows you to change lineups on a daily basis and not one of those soft leagues where you only set your lineup once a week (sense some anger from me in this regard? I hate soft people. Unless they are women who, if soft in all the right places, make me smile wide). This piece will give you a rundown of which splits matter, which don’t, and which men have such vibrant splits that they must be noted.

A NOTE ON TRENDS…

I know trends matter, not saying they don’t, but don’t be a slave to them. By that I mean, you should pay attention to seven-day streaks etc., but don’t take them as gospel. Sample size matters, and a handful of games isn’t enough to completely rely upon.

SPLITS THAT DON’T MATTER

Historical first and second half splits don’t really matter. The hell you say? Here’s why my statement should ring true.

1 – First/second half splits are completely arbitrary data points to begin and end a discussion. What is different on July 5th from July 15th? The answer is nothing.

2 – What if a player was hurt in one half but healthy in the other? Of course his numbers would be better/worse.

3 – What if the player’s team played more games at home or on the road in one year or the next? What if that player is better at home or on the road?

4 – The most obvious for last -- splits can be completely misleading. Example:

Player A has played four years. That gives him eight half-seasons to discuss. Here are his home run totals for each season per half:

First half: 10, 8, 7, 10 = 35 total

Second half: 13, 4, 13, 5 = 35 total

In this instance he is the same, right? There are 35 homers in each half. However, which guy is more consistent? First half guy, of course. Is he really the same half-to-half or not?

Another example. Assuming the exact same at-bat total, 250 for each half (go with me)…

First half: .285, .295, .325, .295 = average of .300

Second half: .280, .375, .280, .280 = average of .304.

According to the overall numbers this guy is a “second half hitter.” In truth, every one of his first half efforts was better than all but one of his second half.

Simply put, the splits here can be misleading.

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