In the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Ben Diamond gives his take on the importance of Sabermetrics and which set of stats actually matter when trying to predict which players could be in for better or worse seasons based off of their 2015 averages in certain categories.

Here is a sample of some of the content inside the BRAND NEW 2016 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide that is available online RIGHT HERE. 

2016 MLB Draft Guide: 2nd Level, Sabermetrics That Matter

By: Ben Diamond

We’re now in the age of accessibility where anybody can get hold of anything. That’s a relatively general statement, but it’s applicable to fantasy baseball. Any data a fantasy player could want is available, and it’s up to you to use that data appropriately. The easiest way to gain an edge in fantasy baseball is to use this data, often termed sabermetrics, to your advantage. While BABIP and FIP are useful, these days all experienced fantasy baseball players understand them. But there are many other sabermetric type measurements which are lesser known, though arguably more important.

 BABIP
 

BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a frequently used measure. It’s easy to understand and incredibly versatile. Each player will establish their own BABIP baseline. The average is different with all players, as a fast and hard-hitting player will have a higher average on balls on play than a slow and light hitting player (in general). Once a baseline is established, any deviation from the average can indicate either good or bad luck. For example, Chris Davishad a .242 BABIP in 2014, despite a career mark of .320. His BABIP rose to .319 in 2015 leading to a significantly better season overall.

 Notables: Odubel Herrera: .297/.344/.418, .387 BABIP… batting average is likely to decrease

                Albert Pujols: .244/.307/.480, .217 BABIP… batting average is likely to increase

BABIP works for pitchers very similarly to the way it does for hitters, as mentioned above. If a pitcher’s BABIP is significantly higher or lower than their career average, then it is not a sustainable performance. The only difference is that pitchers want a lower BABIP, unlike hitters who will excel with a high BABIP.

Notables: Marco Estrada: 3.13 ERA, .216 BABIP… ERA is likely to increase

                Nathan Eovaldi: 4.20 ERA, .337 BABIP… ERA is likely to decrease     

 

Soft%, Med%, and Hard%


Soft, medium, and hard contact percentages go hand in hand with BABIP. There’s so much luck built into baseball that you can hit the ball hard four times in a game and go 0-for-4, or hit four bloopers and have a 4-for-4 game. That said, it’s important to recognize when hitters are making quality contact and getting unlucky, and vice-versa. These measures can point to breakouts, as well as artificial hot and cold streaks. Fangraphs.com lists the averages for Soft%, Med%, and Hard% are 20 percent, 50 percent, and 30 percent, respectively. If a player is well above average in a category, then it may be worth looking into. For example, Luis Valbuena came out of nowhere with 25 home runs in just 132 games in 2015. Or was it out of nowhere? Upon closer inspection, his hard percentage was 36.2 percent in 2014, pointing toward a power breakout.

 Notables: Brandon Belt: .280/.356/.478, 18 HR, 39.5 hard%… power production is likely to increase

               Josh Reddick: .272/.333/.449, 20 HR, 25.2 hard%… power production is likely to decrease

You can read the rest of this article and much more by purchasing the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide found HERE