Ten years ago I wouldn't have had to pen this "strategy." So why do I have to in 2015? People like me are at fault. Not me in particular, I've been against building a team around rookies for 15 years, but the fantasy sports industry in general is to blame. All day every day, all we hear about is the great talent that is Player A, how that guy is going to revolutionize the game. We've become brainwashed into thinking that the game of baseball is easy. It ain't. Some recent instances to put your mind in the right frame of, well, mind. Here are the rookie numbers for some of the stars of the game.
Mike Trout hit .220 with a .672 OPS over 40 games
Justin Upton hit .221 with a .647 OPS over 43 games
Michael Brantley had a .623 OPS over 72 games
Jose Bautista hit .190 with no homers over his first 75 games
Clayton Kershaw had a 4.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 107.2 innings
The fact is that it's way more likely that a player will fail to live up to expectations in his first year than succeed, meaning the Jose Abreu's of the world are the exception.
Here's a look at one leading publications top-10 list of rookies for 2014. How many "hits" are on this list?
Jose Abreu, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Martinez, Bill Hamilton, Oscar Taveras, Travis d'Arnaud, Yordano Ventura, Jonathan Singleton, Nick Castellanos, Matt Davidson
I completely respect the organization I'm pulling this list from by the way. Ranking rookies is a lesson in futility, just the way it is.
Not convinced? Quick case study of Gregory Polanco. The Pirates' outfielder is a tremendous talent and all-star appearances are in his future, I have no doubt about that. The Pirates waited forever to call up Polanco last year causing folks that drafted him to sit on an entity that didn't even appear in a game until June 10th. He proceeded to crush it in June batting .288 with a couple of homers, four steals, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored in just 19 games. Superstar. He then hit .214 in July and .225 in August, was demoted to the minors, and returned to hit .179 in September. Panty waste. So is the life with rookies. Even the most talented don't always hit the ground running in year one. People forget that players like Polanco have been the best player on the field for their entire lives. How do they adjust when there are guys that are their equal on every team in the league? How will they handle the pressure of the big leagues? The media? Being in new places for the first time?
It's absolutely fine to roster rookies and the deeper the league the more worth it is to take a chance. Just be careful you're not depending on rookies to carry your squad.
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