For those who have followed the #DFStudent article series all season long, you are well-aware of the promise to make it rain at Club DFS during Week 15 of the NFL season. It was a bold statement for a daily-game noob, but after studying the game intently over the first couple of weeks and finding consistent success in cash games, there was no reason to believe that I didn’t have as much of a chance to hit it big in the FanDuel  Sunday Million Dollar game even without the ability to submit 80 lineups into the contest. Unfortunately, there are times when the football gods give you a swift kick to the fantasy groin and this holiday season, everyone’s favorite DFS student was served up and forced to choke down a piping-hot pair of Schweddy Balls. They were not as tasty or delicious as Alec Baldwin made them sound.

It happens, people. It’s inevitable. A hiccup, if you will. You can play safe, smart lineups and cash each and every week, but sometimes things just don’t go in your favor. The debate as to whether this is a game of skill or chance has been and will forever be hotly contested, but from my experience here, to consistently win is indeed a skill and the luck factor, while still present, is not the driving force. Of course, the occasional bad luck does rear its ugly head and there are chance moments where you can get snake-bit. Allow me to share.

I only submitted one lineup this week. While cash game and tournament lineups are constructed differently, I thought about last week’s FanDuel World Championship winning lineup and decided I was so happy with my choices that this could be one of those weeks where my lineup cashes in both. Did it? No. Not even close.  If you told me this lineup wouldn’t cash before the games started, I would have said you were crazy. A lot of people would have said you were crazy. It looked that good and the reasoning behind the picks was sound. But again, like I said, sometimes the fantasy gods don’t feel you’re ready for that “big check photo opp” and they smack you down a few rungs on the ladder.

Here’s what it looked like:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drew Brees, QB NO – While I usually like to shop for more of a bargain at the position, this was too hard to pass up. I didn’t think the $8,000 price tag was too high given the match-up with the defensively-challenged Lions and the fact that Brees was averaging 326.7 passing yards per game in his last three home games with 13 total touchdowns to four picks. With 341 yards and three touchdowns, he did not disappoint.

Adrian Peterson RB MIN – Here was the disappointment. Nothing you can do when you get tagged with injuries. The last time Peterson faced the Bears, he rushed for 103 yards on 20 carries. After that game, he then rushed for six touchdowns in his next six games with three 100-plus yard performances. Hell, there was a 200-yard game in there too. He was running just fine this week when, unfortunately, an ankle injury knocked him out of the game in the second quarter. He managed to briefly return to the game in the third, but with the Vikings up big, there was no reason to push their top guy while they chewed up the clock. It was a big bust for the day and a costly one at that.

Brandon Bolden, RB NE – Yeah, yeah….never trust a Patriots running back. I hear you. Loud and friggin’ clear. With the pay-up for Brees and Peterson, I opted to go real cheap on my second running back and Bolden, based on reports and potential game flow, looked to be a solid play. I didn’t need him to kill it in order to pay a solid return on the investment, but I certainly needed him to do better than what he did. Sorry, but no one is winning anything when both running backs suck it for less than seven points each.

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI – I could have withstood the running back nightmare had I hit big on all three wideouts, but Jeffery re-aggravating the hamstring injury and leaving Sunday’s game early was a disaster. Was there a risk involved with using him? Sure. But he has shown up on the injury reports steadily throughout the past several weeks and has still managed to play. Sure, he caught a touchdown, but he did nothing else. One catch and 10 yards just ain’t cutting it.

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA – How do you not use Baldwin this week? The Seachickens were facing the Browns and Baldwin had eight touchdowns in his last three games. With Browns coach Mike Pettine stupidly calling out Russell Wilson, you knew Baldwin was going to get some heavy work in this week. Another solid game from him had me thinking I might just be able to overcome my running back disaster.

Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN – With the Steelers secondary looking tattered and worn, I looked closely at how the Broncos passing game was working with Brock Osweiler under center. With 33 targets in the last three games, it was clear that the perennial back-up was leaning heavily on Thomas. Maybe the Steelers would key in on that, but again, with so many issues in the secondary, they just weren’t going to be able to keep pace with high-flying Thomas. He may not have killed it on the receiving yards, but two touchdowns were exactly what I needed.

Eric Ebron, TE DET – Here was another dart for me. I say another because, in truth, that’s what Bolden was. But Eborn had a really sweet match-up in front of him as the Saints ranked dead last against the tight end this year and Ebron already had four touchdown grabs on the season. While he may have led the team in receiving yards, he did not find the end zone which I would have needed in order to come closer to cashing.

Josh Brown, K NYG – I hate kickers. I really do. I think fantasy leagues should abolish the use of them and think about a second flex. Sometimes it can be so arbitrary that, in my opinion, there is no skill involved with selecting this position. You can go through all the possible game flow scenarios and still not hit it right. Brown didn’t do squat for me here.

Kansas City Chiefs, DEF– They win the turnover battle week in and week out and rank atop the league in defensive touchdowns. Why wouldn’t we use them against “Pick-Six” Schaub and the hapless Ravens?

While this lineup probably would have cashed most weeks, this was one of those times where the scoring around the NFL was so unbelievably high that you needed to hit better than I did to come out on top even in a $10 50/50. It happens. What can you do? The strategy was proper. The selections were solid. The rationale was on-point. Injuries played a big factor here and in a high-scoring week, you have to avoid these small missteps. This is a loss that’s easy to overcome.

Here’s wishing you all a very happy holiday season and we’ll look to hit it big in Week 16.

#DFStudent out.