There are numerous ways to go about saying this. I could start by mentioning the KISS method which is Keep It Simple, Stupid. Or maybe you prefer a more nerdy approach and I can cite Occam’s Razor which states that often times the most simple answer is the correct one. Or, as you can see by the title of this week’s edition, my favorite is the Bull Durham approach – Don’t think, Meat. Or in this case, over-think.

Based on emails I’ve received and questions I frequently get on Twitter, far too many people are over-thinking their lineup decisions. And it’s not just in season-long leagues. The concept of over-thinking lineup choices runs rampant in DFS play too. Again, based on questions I’ve been asked, there are too many people ready to throw away their money in cash games because they’re over-thinking a number of matchups and turning to unproven players they believe will have a strong performance. That’s fine if you want to throw darts in a tournament, but it is not a recommended move for cash games.

I don’t care if Julio Jones is dealing with Josh Norman. I would still rather use him in a cash game than to turn to Brandon Coleman because he’s facing the Bucs and Brandin Cooks is concussed. I’m not shying away from Greg Olsen because Austin Seferian-Jenkins is facing the Saints who ranked 32nd in the league against the tight end. And I’m certainly not going to use Jameis Winston or Alex Smith over Drew Brees, Tom Brady or even Tyrod Taylor. Those plays should be reserved for GPP tournaments , not cash games. When it comes to cash games, I’ll take proven talent over potential upside. Give me chalk, not darts.

Just as an example, take the guy who won the FanDuel World Championships this past week. Yes, the game was considered a tournament, but as we’ve discussed before, with fewer than 150 participants, you should treat the lineup as if you were submitting for a cash game. If that’s not a point that was emphasized enough, mark it down now.

In any event, you can see the winning lineup here. Take notice of chalk players such as Blake Bortles, A.J. Green, Alshon Jeffery and Delanie Walker. But also realize, that this guy’s “darts” were Todd Gurley, Eddie Lacy and Allen Hurns, all of whom have a better track record than the likes of players with favorable matchups such as Brandon Coleman, Darren Sproles and Shaun Draughn. Proven talent over upside. He didn’t over-think the lineup. He didn’t try to be overly-contrarian. He went with solid guys who have been productive and had good matchups – exactly how you should treat all your cash game lineups.

And why am I preaching this? Well, have a look at my cash game lineup this week:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eli Manning, QB NYG – I’ve used Eli in a number of cash lineups when his matchup is soft this year and he hasn’t disappointed yet. Miami’s pass defense was weak coming in and since the Giants' defense was soft as well, this had all the makings of a high-scoring game.  Not to mention, he’s got probably the second-best receiver in the game.

David Johnson, RB ARI –I don’t normally play the Thursday night game as they are, historically, poor choices for fantasy. But I was looking for an inexpensive back with a decent matchup and with the way Johnson was being used and the way Minnesota’s run defense had been looking, I thought it was a decent play. He wasn’t a terrible choice, but I’ll put this as my first mistake.

Shaun Draughn, RB SF – Ayup, mistake No. 2. I opted to stay cheap with my running backs because Draughn, who had been OK but not great, was facing one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Odell Beckham, WR NYG – Do I even need to explain?

Antonio Brown, WR PIT – Here’s a lesson in watching the weather. I set this lineup before the gloomy weather reports started coming in and as we’ve learned with FanDuel, you can’t make a change after the contest has started. Another reason to not play the Thursday game.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN – I know. I know. It’s almost embarrassing. The reports of Darrelle Revis returning weren’t confirmed until it was too late for me to change my lineup and again, I had no business using him as my cheap play based on one game and a whole mess of hype this past week.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB – Oops. With the money I spent on Beckham and Brown, there wasn’t a whole lot of money left to spend on my tight end. I fell for the banana in the tailpipe. I went with the upside here rather than spread the money around better. Again, fine for a GPP lineup, but not for here.

Stephen Gostkowski, K – Again, I deviated from my usual play and paid up for Gostkowski. He played well, but in looking over my running backs and tight end, I probably could have used that $500 extra a little wiser.

Seattle Seahawks, DEF – I don’t mind paying up for a defense in a cash game if it’s a really tasty matchup. The Ravens were a mess and I was hoping for some turnovers.

My score of 126.88 managed to barely cash in this game, but it fell short in my $5 Triple-Up that I also entered. It was a terrible lineup and one I had no business using, especially in a cash game. I did throw it into a single-entry tournament which obviously failed miserably, but that’s not the point. There are at least four players in this lineup who have no business being relied upon in a cash game.

In truth, I’m not even sure of what I was thinking when I put this lineup together. It goes against every single thing I have learned and tried to preach. So if you’re going to take anything away from this week’s edition of the #DFStudent, it’s that you need to stick to your strategy if it’s been successful, stop over-thinking some of these matchups and never think that you’ve got it so figured out that you forget the first two points.