Coors Field. It is the bane of any hard working DFS players existence. Though on the other hand it is every hard working DFS players best friend at times also. How can this be so? Because the fact of the matter is that playing or fading Coors Field does NOT mean winning or losing. There are so many variables at play here which is exactly why daily fantasy sports is truly a game of skill and not some offshoot of a scratch off lottery ticket. More on that another time though.

Last night (May 31st), Coors Field smashed the earth. The Rockies put up a whopping 17 runs on 19 hits and collected a total of 24 baserunners. An amazing feat to be sure but as most of us know that is not all of that out of the ordinary at Coors Field. Over the past four seasons (including 2016) Coors has ranked first in total hits each season. It has ranked first in runs scored each of the last three full seasons and currently sits second in this category this year. But what people really care about in DFS these days seems to be homeruns. Surely Coors is by far the top HR hitter ballpark, right? Not necessarily. Sure it does rank first so far in 2016 (was 6th until this Red series!). But Coors Field wasn’t the top HR hitting ballpark in MLB in any of the past three full seasons. In fact, in 2013 it finished eighth in this category. Last season it was fifth in HR park factor. Of course this is not too shabby whatsoever and still obviously demands our attention every time there is a Rockies game on the slate.

But people are getting way too carried away with the need to always play Coors Field. I don’t know how many times I can say that the number one rule in DFS (or in life for that matter) is to have a plan. You should know what your goals are each and every night you play DFS. If you think that “score the most points possible” is a plan then you are lazy bastard and will likely never get anywhere in life. Sorry, but it’s probably true. If you want to battle me on that point I will have to cede to your ex-wife/girlfriend/boyfriend for the official declaration.

Playing Coors Field is always a viable strategy. In cash game, in GPP’s it doesn’t matter. It’s always what we would call “in play.” But there are situations in which fading Coors is much more beneficial or at least can be and thus you need to consider it. If the entire planet is on a Rockies game and your plan for the night is to win a qualifier or multi entry GPP, you must ask yourself what the ownership is going to look like. If half the field is going to stack Coors as well, then is this your clearest path to winning? Usually no. Not if you must take the absolute top spot (for a Q) of in the top five (in GPP) to realize your goal.

Personally, I have won four baseball qualifiers by fading Coors and two by playing Coors. I won my one baseball live final by fading Coors as well. I have also lost numerous qualifiers by fading Coors. And by playing Coors. Why? Because simply making that decision is just the very beginning of your DFS MLB process. Or at least it should be.

Take last night for instance. The weather was a major factor in Colorado with a 60-70% chance of storms. It was raining in the area prior to the game. Weathermen made their proclamations and every single one of them tagged that game as a caution. So, us players had a decision. Do we play Coors and risk a rain delay or worse a postponed game? Or do we follow through because both of these pitching staffs are garbage and the weather will drive at least some of the people away. Well, we know what happened. Coors and specifically the Rockies crushed. Everybody who faded Coors lost big. Everybody that played Coors won. Right?

Wrong.

Last night and every single night there are people that fade Coors and have winning nights. Likewise there are folks that stack up Coors and lose. Yes, even last night.

Let’s take a reasonable GPP for our example. How about the FanDuel $5 Super Rally which had a top payout of $50,000 last night. Perfectly reasonable tournament that many reading this likely played. It had 69,364 entries which means the winner must have had a perfect lineup choked full of Coors Field. Right?

Well, kinda.

The winning lineup did have Coors Field exposure for sure. But it only had three Rockies players in there though. Two of those were named Gerrardo Parra and DJ LeMahieu, hardly the big time smashers that most of us would gravitate toward like Nolan Arrenado and Carlos Gonzalez. Here is the screenshot of the winning lineup:

 

Well, ok, fine. Still Jeff the winning lineup had Coors Field and thus if you had Coors exposure last night you won big like this guy. Right?

Wrong.

Take these four examples here. Notice the amount of Coors exposure is the same or even more than that of the winning lineup. Notice also that some of these players referenced here are among the best DFS players in the world including my good friend Jeff Collins from RotoGrinders (seriously one of the best qualifier players in the world and also an amazing friend). Another you see is Saahil Sud, aka Max Dullary who won probably a half a million plus last night across the industry. Yet, here he is with a lineup of Coors Field and no winning dollar sign by his lineup. 

As you can see, each of these are very respectable scores but and had plenty of Coors exposure to do some real damage. But none of them finished in the money. Well, OK but at least they were competitve here and you had to play Coors to be competitve last night. Right? 

Sort of, sure. 

I ran the top 100 lineups in this contest and sure enough 68% had what I would call a Coors stack or mini stack (minimum of 2 players). What is more is that 77% had at least some Coors exposure meaning at least one player in the game. But then there are those that had a bunch of Coors exposure but yet still failed to build a competitve lineup. Case in point...

Plenty of Coors Field, but not nearly enough points scored. As much time as we all spend looking over the top of the standings in all of these big contests and qualifiers, I think that is is equally informative and important to look over the bottom portion of the standings also. A lot can be learned about the thin line that divides winners and losers in DFS. 

My point with all of this is that having a plan is paramount in daily fantasy sports. You should have a plan of attack every single slate, every day, every week, every month, every season and every year. If you are serious about playing and winning you simply cannot just go in willie nillie. For those who just do this for fun and games that is absoltely fine. But you still should understand that the executing of a lineup with or without Coors Field is just a starting point. There is a long road ahead to you get to your winning destination. There are many good players out there and each of them have their own way. Myself and the gang here at Fantasy Alarm have our own style and it has been very very good to us. But you have to be willing to take some real chances in order to get to where you want to be. Sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't. With Coors Field, hopefully I have proven enough here today to say that it does both...frequently. 

Oh and lastly (pun intended) in case you were wondering about the last place lineup in this FanDuel $5 contest last night. Here you go. Same Coors Field exposure as the lineup that won the whole damn thing. Interesting, huh?