The key with defenses is finding defenses that will face a lot of passing plays. Fantasy point-scoring events like interceptions and sacks occur exclusively on passing plays, and fumbles actually occur more on passing plays than running plays. Defensive touchdowns are difficult to predict, but they're also more likely to occur on passing plays with 53 pick sixes last year compared to only 33 scoop 'n scores.

One of the best ways to identify defenses that will face a lot of passing plays is identifying Vegas favorites, preferably home favorites. And obviously the lower the opponent's implied point total, the better the matchup for the defense.

Premium Options

There's some pretty obvious chalk this weekend with two of the best defenses in the league having good matchups and a below average defense having a spectacular matchup. That bad defense is New England who ranks 21st in Football Outsiders' Defense Efficiency Ratings (DVOA), but they're in an excellent spot against the Rams. The Pats are easily the biggest favorite of the day at -13.5, and the Rams easily have the lowest implied total at 15.5. The Rams have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season, and they've allowed at least seven fantasy points to all but one defense they've faced. The Pats are going to be fairly heavily owned, especially on FD where they're priced better, so you can fade them in GPPs.

The good defenses mentioned are Baltimore and Denver who rank first and second in DVOA, respectively. Baltimore will host Miami while the Broncos are in Jacksonville. The Dolphins have only been an average fantasy matchup for opposing defenses this season, but they have the third lowest implied total on Sunday. The Jaguars have the second lowest implied total and have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, so yeah, Denver has a better matchup than Baltimore. But Baltimore might be the more appealing DFS option given that they're cheaper than Denver on all sites, sometimes significantly so, and the Ravens are likely to be lesser-owned than Denver, though the Ravens should still have a fairly high ownership percentage.

Sneaky Options

This category is reserved for good defenses that may be overlooked in a given week for whatever reason, providing you with the opportunity to roster a really good unit with a lower ownership rate.

The first defense that fits that description is one that has been mentioned here quite a few times this season, Seattle. The Seahawks rank fourth in DVOA, and their opponent, Carolina, is tied with Miami for the third lowest implied total on Sunday. The Panthers have allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and opposing defenses have reached double digit fantasy points against Carolina in three of the last four weeks. But despite being a good defense with a good matchup, Seattle may be a bit overlooked this weekend with the Pats having such a good matchup and Baltimore and Denver being such good defenses without intimidating matchups.

A cheaper sneaky option is Philadelphia, as the Eagles D/ST is cheaper than Seattle across the board. The Eagles rank third in DVOA, so they're right there with Denver, Baltimore and Seattle as one of the best defenses in the league. And they have a matchup that is much better than it would appear just from looking at the season-long numbers. Philly will be in Cincy facing a Bengals team that has only been an average matchup for fantasy defenses this season, but the Bengals are not the same offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. They've essentially been without Green for two games now and have allowed eight fantasy points to poosing defenses in each of those games. Philly is likely to be very lightly owned and thus makes for a nice contrarian GPP play.

Bargain Options

If you're looking to go as cheap as you can on DraftKings, Miami at $2,600 is about as low as you can go. The Dolphins have a a good defense as they rank eighth in DVOA, and they have a slightly above average matchup against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the 14th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and they have a slightly below average implied total on Sunday.

Over on FanDuel, you could feasibly go with a minimum priced defense in Jacksonville, The Jaguars are bad but their defense is average as they rank dead in the middle at 16th in DVOA. And their matchup with Denver is a good one. The Broncos have allowed 7.1 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season, but they've gotten even friendlier to opposing defenses as the season has worn on as they've allowed nine fantasy points per game in their last seven games. They may be even more friendly this weekend with rookie Paxton Lynch starting in place of an injured Trevor Siemian.