Chalk Stack(s)

New York Yankees vs. Sam Gaviglio

After seeing Gaviglio perform at the Major League level last season it’s hard for me to believe he’s showing us his true colors this season. The Yankees currently have the fourth highest total of the day with 5.08 implied runs. Last season he bolstered a 5.93 K/9 that has all of a sudden jumped to 9.14. His ERA and stats right in front of our faces look very good, but when looking at the peripheral numbers, we see Gaviglio has a 4.17 FIP which is nearly a full run more than his ERA. His struggles last year were with both sides of the dish, but slightly more with righties.

If we’re talking about righties, you know we’re starting with Aaron Judge. Judge is demolishing RHP on the year having hit 13 homers with a .300 AVG and .433 wOBA against them. Meanwhile, the red hot Miguel Andujar has almost one-upped the reigning AL Rookie of the Year hitting .336 versus right-handers. Andujar is scorching hot coming into this contest slashing .382/.462/.735 with six doubles and two homers over his last 10 games.

Continuing right on along, Gleyber Torres had a spectacular month of May posting an OPS of 1.082 with a .432 wOBA. He’s already taken right-handed pitchers deep eight times and has a .399 wOBA against them. Austin Romine is someone to keep an eye on because the man simply can’t stop hitting. Romine is riding an 11-game hit streak in which he’s gone deep four times and driven in 13 runs. He’s the best catcher the Yankees have right now. Yes I said it.

I’m interested in some lefty bats here too, primarily Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner. Gardner, like Andujar up top, is one of the hottest hitters in baseball hitting .370 with an OPS over 1.000 over his last 10 games. Bird has been hitting third-through-fifth, so being in the heart of this lineup presents you with a TON of run producing opportunity. He has an extra-base hit in five straight games and has scored at least five DK points in seven straight games. He’s going to be chalky as heck today. Have you guys noticed Gregorius on the base paths lately? He’s stolen a base in four straight games and five over his last seven games. Where he’s lacking in power like he showed earlier in the year, he’s making up for it with his legs.

Primary Option(s): Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner

Secondary Option(s): Austin Romine, DiDi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

 

Contrarian Stack(s)

Chicago White Sox vs. Jake Odorizzi

The White Sox are near the bottom of the list for Wednesday night’s slate in terms of implied run total with 3.93 but I’m here to tell you I don’t think that’s going to be the case. In the one meeting with the White Sox this year, it was a mixed bag of a results as he allowed five runs (three earned) and struck out eight. But the runs are something worth noting. Odorizzi has held his opponents to a decently low batting averages this year but he’s allowed a ton of pop. He’s given up 14 homers already -- eight to lefties and six to righties. His home wOBA of .363 is very scary for the Twins faithful as well. LHH have posted near elite marks of 25.9-percent line drive and 35.4-percent hard hit rates while RHH haven’t been too shabby either notching a 34.7-percent hard contact rating.

I love the lefties for the Sox here so the first few names we’re going to talk about here are Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka and Yolmer Sanchez. Moncada is flat out better from the left side of the plate. He’s hitting .272 with all eight of his homers and a .855 OPS compared to .176 AVG and a .533 OPS. Moncada is a dual threat option and not only is he a candidate to homer here off Odorizzi, but if he reaches base he could swipe a couple of bags as well. Moncada generally leads off against right-handed pitchers and is followed by Yolmer Sanchez. Sanchez, just like Moncada, is far better as a lefty bat than a righty. He’s hitting .301 as a LHH and has been spraying the ball to the tune of a 26.3-percent line drive rate off of RHP himself. Sanchez himself has swiped five bags this season so he could potentially steal a bag too. I mentioned Daniel Palka up top as well and boy has he been good for the White Sox this season. Just over his last 10 games, he’s slashing .314/.351/.629 with three homers and six runs batted in. He correlates well with Odorizzi for he has a 41.5-percent hard hit rate, something I mentioned Odorizzi has a problem with.

But the lefties aren’t the only plays I like here. Jose Abreu is one of purest hitters in all of baseball and hits righties at a .297 clip with a .373 wOBA. Not to mention he’s been great at Target Field throughout his career hitting .301 in those nice hitting conditions in Minnesota. If we’re talking about how Odorizzi allows a lot of home runs, we can’t exclude Matt Davidson. Yes Davidson could strike out four times, but he could also hit multiple homers in this spot. He sports a .874 OPS and a .375 wOBA vs. RHP on the year. The last guy I’ll mention is Jose Rondon. In limited time at the Major League level, Rondon has been a MASSIVE reverse splits guy. Versus lefties, he’s slashing just .071/.133/.286 but versus righties he has a robust .364/.391/.773 slash. He’s your punt of the group for sure.

Primary Play(s): Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu

Secondary Play(s): Matt Davidson, Jose Rondon

 

Detroit Tigers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

Although Eduardo Rodriguez comes into this game pitching really well, the Tigers could be really sneaky here. Detroit has the number one batting average (.282) against left-handed pitching this year and rank in the top-five in OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. I’m not going to lie and say it’s a great matchup for Detroit because Rodriguez’s numbers are solid across the board, but it’s more about their offense as a whole.

Detroit has three guys in Nick Castellanos, Jose Iglesias and James McCann who have already taken Rodriguez deep in their careers. Castellanos is having an insane season against southpaws slashing .458/.508/.644 and comes into this game on fire hitting .395 over his last 10 games. McCann is someone who has notoriously hit lefties well and that hasn’t changed this season. His .289 AVG and .391 wOBA as essentially right on par with his career marks of .288 and .375. Iglesias has very quietly hit lefties for not only AVG (.297) but with some power as well (.387 wOBA). He’s also in a bit of a tear at the plate hitting .290 over his last 10 including a pair of stolen bases over his last six games.

Jeimer Candelario exited Tuesday’s game after being hit on the hand with a pitch, but X-rays came back negative and if he were to enter the lineup, he’s a great play as well. Candelario is another Tiger over .300 against LHP and also happens to have a .434 wOBA. He hits in the middle of the lineup and will have plenty of run producing chances here. Two guys that could crack the lineup, and honestly should, are John Hicks and Niko Goodrum. Hicks has a .324 AVG and a .923 OPS vs. LHP while Goodrum himself enters tonight’s contest with a .294 AVG. Oh yeah, have I forgotten to mention Miguel Cabrera? He’s not a primary option for me, but he’ll hit in the middle of the lineup and obviously works in a stack.

Primary Option(s): Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Jose Iglesias, James McCann

Secondary Option(s): John Hicks, Niko Goodrum, Miguel Cabrera