Chalk Stack(s)

Boston Red Sox vs. David Hess

Somehow, David Hess has navigated through lineups allowing one run or less in three straight games. His ERA is nice and is WHIP isn’t bad either, but dig deeper into the numbers and you’ll see everything is about to go south for Hess. He has a 3.20 ERA, but his SIERA and xFIP sit at 5.18 and 5.32 respectively. He rarely strikes anyone out (13.6-percent) and he allows a bunch of homers (1.86 HR/9) and that’s WITH the three good performances in a row.

Speaking of home runs, the Red Sox have a few guys that can hit them. Against RHP, Boston leads in AVG, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They have four guys in Mookie Betts , J.D. Martínez , Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland that have already belted 10-plus home runs this season. Betts returned on Monday and went 1-for-5, but is hitting .352 with 11 homers and a .484 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the year. J.D. Martínez has faced Hess twice this year and in both at-bats he took him deep. He could potentially be the top play on the slate when you factor in his 1.084 OPS, .385 ISO and .447 wOBA vs. RHP. Benintendi has also homered off of Hess and after his stolen base on Monday, has 11 homers and 11 stolen bases. He’s a dual threat option that could give us one of each in this spot, especially since Hess is a righty and it’s obviously easily to swipe bags off righties. Mitch Moreland is slumping a bit hitting .229 over his last 10 games, but he’s done all of his damage this year against RHP. He’s hit nine-of-10 homers and has a .420 wOBA against them. This Boston four-pack probably isn’t doable unless you punt your pitchers spot(s), but it could pay off tremendously.

A few other guys I’m considering here are Rafael Devers and Brock Holt . Devers looks to be snapping out of it at the plate riding a six-game hitting streak. He’s also been more productive away from Fenway Park and although Fenway is a great hitting environment, Baltimore’s stadium is a left-handed hitters paradise. Holt has been fantastic away from home this season slashing .333/.362/.556. Both Devers and Holt are cheap additions to your stack in order to fit two or three of the big guns in there.

Primary Option(s): J.D. Martínez , Mookie Betts , Andrew Benintendi , Mitch Moreland

Secondary Option(s): Brock Holt , Rafael Devers

 

Contrarian Stack(s)

Chicago White Sox vs. Adam Plutko

Plutko has started off his 2018 season with a bang going 3-0 in his first three professional starts. His last one actually came against these same White Sox and he actually didn’t perform too well allowing five runs over five innings of work, he was just picked up by his offense. In his limited time in the show, lefties have smashed the ball against him posting a .300/.382/.655 slash. He’s already allowed five homers in three starts which translates to an ugly 2.45 HR/9. His sub-four ERA and north of five SIERA and xFIP’s don’t correlate, and it’s all going to come crashing down on Tuesday.

The White Sox don’t send out a ton of lefties in their lineup, but the best three they have to offer are Yoan Moncada , David Palka and Yolmer Sánchez . Moncada is struggling mightily, especially in the strikeout department, but Plutko only strikes out 16.7-percent of his opponents, so this could be a blessing for Moncada who is bound to put bat on ball in this one. Despite his struggles, he still has a .355 wOBA against right-handers this year. Sanchez comes in struggling as well, but he’s been great at home hitting .306 and he’s always a threat to swipe a bag. I’ll have more interest in him if he’s hitting in the two-hole. Palka has power and that upside plays in tournament stacks. He has a SLG north of .500 this year and although he’s another White Sox player that’s struggling at the dish, this could be his breakout game.

I’m not going to overlook the best player in this lineup in José Abreu . Abreu continues to hit the ball year in, year out and has a .291 AVG and .375 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Abreu, Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson all hit flyball’s over 35-percent of the time, which correlates well with Plutko’s 60-percent rate against right-handed hitters. If they get ahold of one, it can go a long way. Anderson already took Plutko deep in their last meeting just two weeks ago.

Primary Option(s): José Abreu , Yoan Moncada , Yolmer Sánchez , David Palka

Secondary Option(s): Tim Anderson , Matt Davidson , Omar Narváez

 

Minnesota Twins vs. Blaine Hardy

Outside of his last start against the Red Sox, Hardy has been very good this year. He enters Tuesday’s game with a respectable 3.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Lefties actually have had more success on the year posting a .331 wOBA against him. There is a lot of downside to Hardy’s game on the mound, however. He has a very tiny 6.19 K/9 mark, he’s allowing a lot of hard contact (33.7-percent) and he’s more of a flyballer than anything else, giving up FB’s at a 43.8-percent clip.

The Twins have some big time boppers in their lineup that can explode on any given day and a few of them were All-Stars in previous years that just haven’t broken out yet. I’m talking about Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano . I’m not saying start your stack here, but throughout the years they have been a fantastic 1-2 punch when facing left-handed pitching. In 2017 and 2016, Dozier posted 1.057 and .965 marks in the OPS category respectively against LHP. Sano was at .992 last season, .818 in ‘16 and even notched an .881 mark as a rookie back in 2015. Both crush lefties and although they’re struggling this season, the breakout is coming.

If you don’t want to start your stack with them, Eddie Rosario , Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler are just fine. Rosario has been on a tear for over a month now and is slashing .361/.404/.652 with a .442 wOBA since May 1. Let’s not breeze past the fact that left-handed pitching doesn’t impact Rosario at all as he’s hitting .304 against them on the season. He’s also 3-for-9 off of Hardy in his career, so he also has a slight BvP advantage as well. Escobar is actually 4-for-10 off of Hardy, so he too has the advantage. Escobar has also been scorching hot hitting .395 with four homers, one triple and SEVEN doubles while driving in 13 runs over his last 10 games. Kepler, someone who’s been atrocious against southpaws his entire career, has a .302 AVG and .419 wOBA against them this season and is SO cheap across the industry.

One of Fantasy Alarm’s very own Jon Impemba loves using Ehire Adrianza against left-handed pitching and he’s 100-percent right as to why. On both FanDuel and DraftKings he’s 2.9K and against left-handed pitching on the year he’s hitting .343 with a .417 wOBA. He has a five game hitting streak in games he’s started and over his last 10 contests he’s slashing .308/.400/.808. If you do the very challenging math (OBP + SLG) you realize that equals an OPS of 1.208. Elite value option today. One more name to throw out there just in case is Robbie Grossman . He oddly led off for the Twins over the weekend and if he’s hitting there again, he’s definitely in play here, but more as a secondary option.

Primary Option(s): Eddie Rosario , Eduardo Escobar , Brian Dozier , Ehire Adrianza

Secondary Option(s): Miguel Sano , Max Kepler , Robbie Grossman