Given the ugliness of the pitching match-ups today, this could end up the shortest Pitching Coach piece to date. It’s really that bad. I was looking at some of my choices and matching them up with today’s Playbook from Ted Schuster and we are in complete agreement that there are very few options. We differ on one player – Adam Wainwright – but Ted cites his recent performance and price on DK, so while I’m not averse to giving him a whirl in a GPP, I’m not trusting him against the Reds who, believe it or not, are crushing the ball lately. We’re talking a .400 wOBA over the last two weeks. That being said, here’s the data and my selections for the day.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | A | CWS | 64.0 | 8.58 | 2.39 | 1.13 | .260 | 9.9% | 3.94 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 50.8% | 29.0% | 1.75 | 0.254 | 0.321 | $9000 | $8900 | $6550 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | R | A | SEA | 61.0 | 6.05 | 1.03 | 1.48 | .251 | 8.3% | 3.54 | 4.15 | 1.10 | 42.1% | 36.5% | 1.15 | 0.284 | 0.324 | $8600 | $8200 | $6050 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | R | H | CLE | 61.2 | 9.05 | 3.79 | 0.88 | .261 | 11.0% | 4.23 | 4.05 | 1.43 | 42.4% | 32.6% | 1.30 | 0.299 | 0.346 | $8200 | $7900 | $5950 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | R | A | CIN | 71.2 | 5.78 | 2.13 | 1.00 | .294 | 7.9% | 5.40 | 4.57 | 1.41 | 46.2% | 28.2% | 1.64 | 0.315 | 0.362 | $8000 | $5600 | $6500 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | H | BAL | 80.1 | 6.17 | 2.80 | 0.67 | .263 | 9.4% | 4.82 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 61.4% | 18.5% | 3.32 | 0.334 | 0.304 | $8000 | $5700 | $6350 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | R | A | MIL | 66.0 | 6.27 | 1.77 | 0.95 | .267 | 6.7% | 3.27 | 4.35 | 1.23 | 41.1% | 32.2% | 1.28 | 0.289 | 0.313 | $7900 | $6900 | $6000 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | R | H | NYM | 76.0 | 7.10 | 3.55 | 1.30 | .233 | 9.0% | 3.43 | 4.41 | 1.24 | 50.9% | 30.7% | 1.66 | 0.318 | 0.320 | $7800 | $8700 | $5850 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | A | TEX | 67.0 | 8.19 | 2.28 | 1.21 | .297 | 11.0% | 4.97 | 3.81 | 1.46 | 45.9% | 35.9% | 1.28 | 0.371 | 0.332 | $7600 | $6900 | $6000 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | H | HOU | 72.1 | 5.10 | 3.98 | 0.75 | .250 | 8.9% | 3.24 | 4.73 | 1.36 | 58.5% | 21.0% | 2.79 | 0.216 | 0.335 | $7500 | $7100 | $5750 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | R | A | TOR | 53.1 | 4.55 | 1.86 | 1.18 | .252 | 6.3% | 4.39 | 4.53 | 1.22 | 52.5% | 29.8% | 1.76 | 0.309 | 0.307 | $7200 | $4800 | $5550 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | R | H | LAA | 49.0 | 6.06 | 1.47 | 1.47 | .269 | 10.1% | 4.41 | 3.81 | 1.22 | 59.4% | 23.1% | 2.57 | 0.328 | 0.335 | $7000 | $5300 | $5800 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CWS | R | H | WSH | 34.1 | 7.61 | 3.93 | 1.05 | .280 | 11.3% | 3.93 | 4.48 | 1.52 | 50.0% | 32.7% | 1.53 | 0.352 | 0.324 | $6600 | $5800 | $5650 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | A | MIN | 60.0 | 6.75 | 5.10 | 0.60 | .267 | 8.6% | 4.50 | 5.15 | 1.60 | 49.2% | 27.7% | 1.78 | 0.367 | 0.297 | $6600 | $6600 | $5800 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | H | MIA | 54.0 | 7.50 | 3.33 | 1.33 | .280 | 11.1% | 4.50 | 4.25 | 1.46 | 47.2% | 31.1% | 1.52 | 0.316 | 0.372 | $6200 | $6100 | $5900 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | L | H | STL | 69.1 | 5.97 | 4.41 | 1.30 | .238 | 8.9% | 3.89 | 5.18 | 1.37 | 43.0% | 29.4% | 1.46 | 0.286 | 0.334 | $5900 | $5400 | $5850 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | LAA | R | A | NYY | 26.2 | 9.12 | 2.70 | 1.35 | .274 | 8.9% | 5.40 | 3.54 | 1.39 | 50.0% | 28.0% | 1.78 | 0.275 | 0.335 | $5900 | $7100 | $5400 |
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Gio Gonzalez, WAS – While Gio is going to have to contend with a DH here, the White Sox are struggling at the plate with a .298 wOBA against righties all year. That number drops to .288 if you’re looking at recent performance (last seven days) and that comes with a weak .114 ISO and a strikeout rate nearing 21-percent.
Nate Karns, SEA – The numbers for the Tribe look decent enough if you’re looking at them overall against righties or over the past week. They’re right around league average. But if you look at their road numbers, you’ll see just a .288 wOBA with a 24-percent strikeout rate. Given the rest of the slate today, Karns looks like one of your better cash game options.
Jimmy Nelson, MIL – I’m going to take him over Bartolo Colon here due to the home start. Nelson has a 2.54 ERA and if you look at his wOBA splits at Miller Park, you’ll see a .316 mark against righties and just a .286 versus southpaws. The Mets have a .298 wOBA over the last week and are striking out at a 25.7-percent clip. The Brewers bats have been strong at home also, so look for Nelson to get some decent run support.
Ervin Santana, MIN – How about a little dumpster diving in Minnesota? The strikeouts may be hard to come by, but the Marlins are posting a .261 wOBA over the past week and just look lost at the plate. Santana has had some issues with right-handed hitters, but for a GPP dart here, I think he’ll do just fine against a team struggling to find its power stroke.
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