DFS MLB Pitching Coach: July 8

I really love Fridays. Sincerely. I know everyone says that, but it’s really hitting me this morning as to just how much I needed today to be Friday. Aside from the harrowing week I’ve had on a personal level, this is the first time this week that we haven’t dealt with day games and get a full slate from which to choose. Sure, you can play the All Day slates when there are day games, but I don’t know a single DFS player who actually likes setting a lineup at noon when he/she still hasn’t seen a dozen lineups still pending. Today we get all 15 and they’re kicking off at 7pm ET. Will we have all the late game lineups? No, but I’d rather speculate on one outfielder’s start than 21. Anyway, enough bitching. Let’s get to the pitching for today…

Jose Fernandez, MIA – You would have thought the Reds would be easy targets after the impending fire sale, but they’re sucking just as much now as if they did trade away their veteran parts and that makes the case for Fernandez so compelling. The Reds have posted a 27^th-ranked .297 wOBA with a 22.3-percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching all year and over the last seven days, while they’ve struck out less, their wOBA has hovered just under .300 with a .126 ISO mark. You can even add in their numbers on the road. They’re right in line with these others.

Jake Arrieta, CHC – He’s been smacked around in his last two starts and you might be wondering if, because they’re road games, someone might be putting some Kryptonite in the rubbing mud? Well, if that’s the case then you may want to avoid him in Pittsburgh, his third-straight road start. However, it’s nearly impossible to ignore his numbers against the Pirates this season – 0.86 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 27 strikeouts over 21 innings. He’s priced accordingly, so if you have faith in him, go for it. It’s not like the Pirates are knocking the cover off the ball lately anyway.

Chris Sale, CHW – I mean...come on. How do you not use a guy like Sale with this kind of match-up? Sure, it limits your Coors exposure with the bats but the Braves have a .256 wOBA with a 22-percent strikeout rate over the last week and a .273 wOBA with a 21-percent K-rate against southpaws this season. If he doesn't hit double digit Ks and limit them to one run or fewer, it means the baseball gods have conspired against me!

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA – Over his last four starts, he’s faced three of the toughest lineups in baseball (BAL, DET & BOS), so his recent struggles are going to be cast aside for me right now, especially when he gets a breather like the Royals right now. Normally, the defending champs are a scrappy bunch at the plate, but that bulb has dimmed significantly. For the year, the Royals have posted a 20^th-ranked .309 wOBA with a 20-percent strikeout rate against right-handers, and over the last week, they’ve got a depressing .273 wOBA with an uncharacteristic 22.2-percent strikeout rate.

Collin McHugh, HOU – I’ve never really been a big McHugh fan and while I don’t expect my opinion of him to completely turn around, this match-up against the A’s looks real positive, despite the fact that they roughed him up back in early June. The A’s offense has been in a major tailspin lately and their struggles have dragged their overall wOBA against righties down to .295 for the season. Don’t expect a heavy dose of strikeouts because that’s just not Oakland’s style, but given their .238 wOBA and .090 ISO over the last week, McHugh should have himself a solid night.

Michael Wacha, STL – For seasonal owners, Wacha is on my list for pitchers to target in the second half. For daily play, this match-up against the Brewers could give you just enough sizzle to start believing again. While the Brewers hit better at home than they do on the road, their attempting to rebound from a week that saw them post a 2-4 record with a .289 wOBA and a 23.1-percent strikeout rate. Wacha has certainly turned his game around over the past month and he’s been going deeper into games than he did early on, so hopefully the trend sticks. He did face the Brew Crew in his last start and that’s always tricky, but in two starts against them, he’s allowed just two runs over 11 innings and has 13 strikeouts in that span. Don’t expect mind-blowing totals, but a quality start sure seems to be on the table here.

Daniel Mengden, OAK – Maybe you’re not a true believer in Collin McHugh and are interested in the opposite side of this match-up. Mengden has looked solid this year though he did hit a stumbling block against the Pirates last weekend. But now he gets the Astros, a team that has a 25^th-ranked .288 wOBA over the past week and that comes with a 22.7-percent strikeout rate. The ‘Stros usually hit righties well, so be careful where you use Mengden, but they also swing and miss a bunch so a second starter in a GPP might not be a bad place for him.

Patrick Corbin, ARI – Get your dartboard out, people! I’m throwing a GPP lineup together and yes, I’m going to throw Corbin in there against the Giants who have struggled at the plate recently and have a .291 wOBA with a 21.8-percent strikeout rate over the last week. He’s got a 3.86 ERA in two starts against the Giants this year, but he now gets to face them in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park where they have just a .127 ISO for the season.

Sean O’Sullivan, BOS – An even bigger dart with an even more narrow bullseye, amirite? But here’s what I’m thinking: The Red Sox are going to crush Chris Archer, just as they’ve done in their two meetings this year, and O’Sullivan will be able to score the win after throwing five innings. Maybe they even let him go more considering the Rays are posting a .267 wOBA with a 26.5-percent strikeout rate over the past week. I just might GPP him on FanDuel to get some big-ass bats from Coors going, but I am definitely using him as a second pitcher in the DK Moonshot and on the Aces tourneys as well.