Well would you take a look at that -- after what seemed to be the longest offseason in the history of offseasons, this first week of baseball has flown by at a relentless pace. As we move through this first week of DFS Pitching Coach pieces, this will be the last time I use 2015 numbers as a reference. No, of course the sample size we’ll be using is tiny in comparison, but there’s a lot to account for with regard to 2016 that cannot be found in last year’s numbers. Pitchers have changed, rosters have changed and when the two meet up, the results are also going to change. Maybe not dramatically, but enough to make a difference with regard to your daily fantasy baseball play.
Early Slate
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | L | A | SF | 232.2 | 11.64 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 0.193 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 0.88 | 0.281 | 50.0% | 28.2% | 1.77 | 0.242 | 0.228 | $13,000 | $14,200 | $8,100 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | L | H | CLE | 208.2 | 11.82 | 1.81 | 0.99 | 0.232 | 3.41 | 2.60 | 1.09 | 0.323 | 42.6% | 35.3% | 1.21 | 0.281 | 0.285 | $12,000 | $12,100 | $7,650 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | R | A | CIN | 208.0 | 8.74 | 1.90 | 0.48 | 0.235 | 2.60 | 3.16 | 1.09 | 0.304 | 48.0% | 29.6% | 1.62 | 0.266 | 0.283 | $10,000 | $10,200 | $7,000 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | H | LAD | 218.1 | 9.65 | 1.61 | 0.87 | 0.220 | 2.93 | 3.02 | 1.01 | 0.282 | 41.7% | 35.6% | 1.17 | 0.240 | 0.272 | $11,200 | $11,600 | $7,400 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | R | H | PIT | 95.1 | 9.82 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 0.225 | 4.15 | 3.28 | 1.14 | 0.286 | 47.2% | 31.9% | 1.48 | 0.332 | 0.271 | $8,000 | $8,600 | $6,450 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | H | BOS | 214.1 | 5.29 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 0.240 | 3.91 | 4.72 | 1.19 | 0.257 | 41.9% | 37.2% | 1.13 | 0.290 | 0.322 | $7,900 | $7,000 | $5,800 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | A | WAS | 187.1 | 6.58 | 3.70 | 1.06 | 0.251 | 4.08 | 4.58 | 1.37 | 0.283 | 46.0% | 35.6% | 1.29 | 0.332 | 0.313 | $7,200 | $6,800 | $5,500 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | R | A | TOR | 172.0 | 7.80 | 1.99 | 1.31 | 0.284 | 4.92 | 3.72 | 1.36 | 0.332 | 45.7% | 32.5% | 1.40 | 0.351 | 0.327 | $7,200 | $7,800 | $5,750 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | L | A | DET | 167.1 | 7.37 | 2.69 | 1.51 | 0.281 | 4.73 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 0.317 | 45.9% | 32.4% | 1.41 | 0.231 | 0.370 | $7,100 | $7,300 | $5,600 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | R | H | MIA | 76.2 | 8.10 | 2.47 | 0.82 | 0.220 | 3.64 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 0.265 | 49.8% | 33.8% | 1.47 | 0.351 | 0.205 | $6,800 | $7,500 | $5,750 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | R | A | CHW | 91.1 | 4.34 | 2.36 | 0.89 | 0.226 | 3.05 | 4.58 | 1.11 | 0.237 | 45.9% | 33.6% | 1.37 | 0.309 | 0.260 | $6,500 | $5,400 | $5,500 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | R | H | NYY | 164.2 | 4.70 | 2.46 | 0.60 | 0.301 | 4.26 | 4.45 | 1.48 | 0.334 | 50.8% | 26.4% | 1.93 | 0.367 | 0.313 | $6,000 | $5,200 | $5,750 |
Clayton Kershaw, LAD – Because he’s Clayton freakin’ Kershaw, that’s why.
Chris Sale, CHW – He gave up a few more runs than we expected in his debut, but the 10.29 K/9 will climb towards last year’s numbers and his current wOBA splits are well in-line with his career averages. Couple that to the Indians’ .268 wOBA and 30.2-percent strikeout rate against lefties this year and you’ve got a killer play for Saturday.
Gerrit Cole, PIT – He was my preseason pick for the NL Cy Young award this season and I certainly will not back away from it. He’s ready to take the next step in his game and will start things off against a Reds team that sports a .276 wOBA against righties and is striking out just under 22-percent of the time.
Tom Koehler, MIA – OK, so you want a low-cost option for the day? Fine. I’m not in love with it by any means, but based on the fact that the Nationals are sporting a .279 wOBA and a 22.9-percent strikeout rate against right-handers thus far, I’ll pick on them a little bit here. Koehler struggles against lefty bats so he could have some difficulty with Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, but if the Nats are pressing at the plate, Koehler could take advantage.
Late Slate
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | A | LAA | 212.1 | 9.11 | 2.63 | 0.93 | 0.235 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.19 | 0.294 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.52 | 0.290 | 0.294 | $10,500 | $11,200 | $7,200 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | R | H | CHC | 222.2 | 8.08 | 1.62 | 0.57 | 0.185 | 1.66 | 3.22 | 0.84 | 0.229 | 48.0% | 32.9% | 1.46 | 0.240 | 0.211 | $10,400 | $10,500 | $7,300 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | R | A | ATL | 179.2 | 9.22 | 3.16 | 0.65 | 0.246 | 3.01 | 3.28 | 1.29 | 0.318 | 54.5% | 25.5% | 2.14 | 0.329 | 0.276 | $9,000 | $10,000 | $6,350 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | R | H | TEX | 207.1 | 7.64 | 3.30 | 0.87 | 0.231 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.24 | 0.274 | 54.9% | 28.0% | 1.96 | 0.279 | 0.309 | $8,700 | $10,200 | $6,500 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | A | BAL | 66.2 | 10.39 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 0.228 | 3.10 | 3.47 | 1.17 | 0.283 | 36.8% | 44.3% | 0.83 | 0.227 | 0.324 | $8,500 | $9,500 | $5,500 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | R | H | STL | 200.2 | 7.67 | 3.27 | 1.21 | 0.248 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 1.31 | 0.288 | 39.5% | 36.2% | 1.09 | 0.386 | 0.257 | $8,400 | $9,300 | $6,250 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | R | H | MIN | 168.1 | 9.30 | 2.78 | 1.66 | 0.254 | 4.28 | 3.70 | 1.30 | 0.301 | 38.5% | 38.7% | 0.99 | 0.356 | 0.338 | $8,400 | $8,700 | $6,000 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | R | H | OAK | 147.0 | 8.88 | 3.43 | 1.16 | 0.236 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 1.28 | 0.285 | 41.9% | 36.5% | 1.15 | 0.308 | 0.306 | $8,100 | $8,500 | $5,500 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | R | A | ARI | 180.0 | 8.35 | 2.15 | 0.85 | 0.241 | 3.95 | 3.25 | 1.16 | 0.296 | 51.3% | 26.9% | 1.91 | 0.343 | 0.258 | $7,500 | $8,000 | $5,450 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | L | A | SEA | 29.0 | 11.17 | 1.55 | 0.62 | 0.141 | 1.55 | 2.50 | 0.66 | 0.197 | 48.4% | 35.5% | 1.36 | 0.166 | 0.193 | $7,400 | $8,400 | $5,800 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | R | H | PHI | 194.2 | 6.29 | 1.11 | 1.16 | 0.276 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 1.24 | 0.307 | 42.3% | 36.9% | 1.15 | 0.314 | 0.319 | $7,200 | $6,100 | $5,800 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | L | A | KC | 128.2 | 6.37 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 0.253 | 3.92 | 4.22 | 1.27 | 0.279 | 41.6% | 35.4% | 1.17 | 0.266 | 0.331 | $6,800 | $6,600 | $5,600 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | R | A | MIL | 103.0 | 5.50 | 2.10 | 1.22 | 0.286 | 4.19 | 4.46 | 1.40 | 0.310 | 44.6% | 34.1% | 1.31 | 0.317 | 0.368 | $6,500 | $5,800 | $5,250 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | R | A | NYM | 55.2 | 9.38 | 3.40 | 0.81 | 0.240 | 4.37 | 4.15 | 1.28 | 0.310 | 31.3% | 46.7% | 0.67 | 0.287 | 0.349 | $6,400 | $6,800 | $5,400 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | L | H | SD | 149.0 | 8.09 | 3.93 | 1.03 | 0.242 | 4.17 | 3.84 | 1.36 | 0.288 | 52.0% | 27.3% | 1.90 | 0.293 | 0.328 | $6,300 | $6,300 | $5,500 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | R | H | TB | 44.2 | 5.24 | 3.63 | 1.81 | 0.287 | 6.04 | 5.70 | 1.57 | 0.295 | 37.7% | 42.9% | 0.88 | 0.392 | 0.361 | $6,300 | $5,100 | $4,650 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | H | HOU | 108.2 | 4.97 | 3.06 | 1.16 | 0.297 | 4.72 | 4.57 | 1.54 | 0.320 | 51.6% | 28.4% | 1.82 | 0.376 | 0.349 | $5,300 | $6,200 | $5,750 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SD | L | A | COL | 86.0 | 8.58 | 3.24 | 0.84 | 0.220 | 3.66 | 3.89 | 1.19 | 0.270 | 42.2% | 36.3% | 1.16 | 0.200 | 0.326 | $4,900 | $4,900 | $5,200 |
Cole Hamels, TEX – The Angels are downright atrocious against lefties through the first week of the season. They’re fanning 21.8-percent of the time against them, have a .191 wOBA and are mashing the ball in the first nearly 48-percent of the time. The team’s .179 BABIP indicates the bounces aren’t going their way right now so look for Hamels to capitalize.
Carlos Martinez, STL – This could be an awesome match-up for daily play as the Braves are striking out 26.5-percent of the time and Martinez’ 9.22 K/9 last season should be around his 2016 benchmark as well. Martinez is also a strong ground ball specialist, so with the Braves sporting a 50-percent ground ball rate against righties this year, it looks like the deck is stacked in the Red Birds favor.
Garrett Richards, LAA – He was beaten up pretty badly by the Cubs in his season debut, but he should turn things around against a Rangers team that seems to be struggling at the plate. He’s facing Hamels, so the win probability is lower than we’d like, but with the Rangers, a team Richards dominated last season, sitting on a .268 wOBA, they’re not exactly intimidating anyone. If Richards can force them into enough ground ball outs like he usually does, he should be able to post strong ratios and go deeper into the game.
Julio Teheran, ATL – Well, everyone was all over his home starts last year and with the way the Cardinals offense is struggling – and they are struggling something fierce, perhaps Teheran can keep this match-up against Martinez a close one. He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, but the Cardinals current level of plate discipline borders on the amateur with their 25.9-percent strikeout rate and 3.5-percent walk rate, so perhaps he can get them to fish early.
Ian Kennedy, KC – It’s an interesting debut for Kennedy and one that many might choose to avoid given his struggles in San Diego last year. But for a GPP, if you’re looking for low ownership percentages with some good strikeout upside, then this match-up has just that. Kennedy strikes out more than a batter per inning and right now, the Twins are fanning at an alarming 33.1-percent rate. The long ball has been his undoing, but the Twins are sporting just a 10-percent HR/FB which ranks 19th in the league right now.
Nate Karns, SEA – He’s my second pitcher in most of my Draft Kings and Fantasy Aces lineups today as he faces an A’s team that is struggling mightily at the plate to open the year. The .498 OPS is awful, the .228 wOBA is even worse and their usually strong team plate discipline is suffering right now with a 20-percent K-rate and a below-average 7.4-percent walk rate. Karns had his struggles last year in what was really his first full season, so look for him to make the necessary adjustments and enjoy a fresh start with the Mariners.
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