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Quite the interesting Opening Day, huh? We had rainouts pushing some of our aces to today, interesting performances (both expected and unexpected), and some serious overlay on Draft Kings. What does that mean for today? Absolutely nothing. It’s a brand new day. OK, sure, we actually get a couple of aces on the hill for the early slate, but other than that, not much. So let’s just dive right into today’s action and see what we’ve got.
Let’s start with the numbers from 2015:
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| David Price | BOS | L | A | CLE | 220.1 | 9.19 | 1.92 | 0.69 | 0.227 | 2.45 | 3.24 | 1.08 | 0.290 | 40.4% | 36.4% | 1.11 | 0.285 | 0.265 | $12,300 | $11,000 | $7,450 |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | R | A | MIL | 212.0 | 7.47 | 1.95 | 0.89 | 0.239 | 3.44 | 3.78 | 1.13 | 0.281 | 42.4% | 35.6% | 1.19 | 0.262 | 0.322 | $10,600 | $9,600 | $7,400 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | H | BOS | 222.0 | 9.93 | 1.82 | 0.89 | 0.228 | 3.49 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 0.297 | 42.4% | 35.9% | 1.18 | 0.322 | 0.238 | $9,700 | $10,300 | $7,400 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | A | NYY | 232.0 | 8.38 | 1.98 | 0.66 | 0.216 | 2.48 | 2.75 | 1.02 | 0.269 | 61.7% | 19.6% | 3.14 | 0.201 | 0.268 | $11,000 | $10,100 | $7,250 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | R | A | KC | 150.0 | 9.96 | 1.86 | 1.14 | 0.221 | 3.24 | 2.91 | 1.05 | 0.279 | 46.5% | 33.6% | 1.38 | 0.296 | 0.262 | $9,900 | $9,400 | $7,000 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | H | HOU | 154.0 | 8.12 | 1.58 | 1.46 | 0.217 | 3.51 | 3.29 | 0.99 | 0.242 | 47.0% | 33.8% | 1.39 | 0.296 | 0.280 | $9,100 | $10,500 | $6,900 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | R | A | MIA | 133.1 | 7.63 | 2.16 | 0.88 | 0.226 | 3.37 | 4.15 | 1.09 | 0.267 | 34.6% | 45.5% | 0.76 | 0.268 | 0.286 | $8,900 | $8,700 | $6,550 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | R | A | TEX | 129.2 | 7.70 | 1.46 | 1.25 | 0.237 | 3.54 | 3.27 | 1.06 | 0.271 | 50.4% | 31.1% | 1.62 | 0.301 | 0.279 | $8,900 | $8,200 | $6,550 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAD | L | A | SD | 183.0 | 7.62 | 2.90 | 0.98 | 0.233 | 3.10 | 4.14 | 1.21 | 0.273 | 42.9% | 37.3% | 1.15 | 0.332 | 0.287 | $9,300 | $8,300 | $6,400 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | L | A | LAA | 205.0 | 9.09 | 2.06 | 0.70 | 0.236 | 3.34 | 3.06 | 1.12 | 0.303 | 48.9% | 29.3% | 1.67 | 0.286 | 0.290 | $10,700 | $10,700 | $6,400 |
| James Shields | SD | R | H | LAD | 202.1 | 9.61 | 3.60 | 1.47 | 0.245 | 3.91 | 3.70 | 1.33 | 0.299 | 44.9% | 34.4% | 1.30 | 0.380 | 0.288 | $8,700 | $9,100 | $6,300 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | L | A | OAK | 206.1 | 7.72 | 1.92 | 0.70 | 0.269 | 3.36 | 3.51 | 1.27 | 0.327 | 47.1% | 29.7% | 1.58 | 0.287 | 0.320 | $8,300 | $8,400 | $6,250 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | R | H | COL | 205.1 | 7.50 | 3.20 | 0.57 | 0.234 | 3.02 | 4.07 | 1.25 | 0.285 | 47.7% | 34.1% | 1.40 | 0.315 | 0.265 | $7,700 | $7,500 | $6,100 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | L | H | DET | 191.1 | 7.20 | 1.93 | 1.32 | 0.257 | 3.34 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 0.290 | 40.5% | 39.4% | 1.03 | 0.250 | 0.348 | $8,300 | $8,100 | $6,100 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | H | TOR | 169.1 | 7.97 | 2.44 | 0.96 | 0.229 | 3.35 | 3.96 | 1.15 | 0.271 | 37.3% | 40.6% | 0.92 | 0.273 | 0.324 | $7,900 | $8,500 | $6,000 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | R | A | PIT | 181.1 | 7.59 | 2.88 | 0.94 | 0.232 | 3.37 | 3.88 | 1.21 | 0.272 | 45.8% | 32.0% | 1.43 | 0.270 | 0.313 | $8,500 | $8,100 | $6,000 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | R | H | SF | 177.1 | 7.51 | 3.30 | 0.91 | 0.242 | 4.11 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 0.285 | 50.6% | 29.4% | 1.72 | 0.376 | 0.255 | $7,200 | $7,000 | $6,000 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | H | STL | 176.2 | 5.76 | 2.80 | 1.02 | 0.272 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 1.40 | 0.300 | 54.5% | 24.7% | 2.21 | 0.343 | 0.330 | $6,300 | $6,300 | $6,000 |
| Chris Young | KC | R | H | NYM | 123.1 | 6.06 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 0.199 | 3.06 | 5.33 | 1.09 | 0.209 | 25.5% | 57.9% | 0.44 | 0.320 | 0.237 | $5,500 | $6,200 | $5,500 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | R | A | TB | 92.1 | 5.95 | 4.29 | 0.88 | 0.222 | 3.22 | 4.27 | 1.28 | 0.247 | 60.6% | 21.6% | 2.81 | 0.380 | 0.205 | $6,700 | $6,400 | $5,500 |
| Andrew Heaney | LAA | L | H | CHC | 105.2 | 6.64 | 2.38 | 0.77 | 0.245 | 3.49 | 4.41 | 1.20 | 0.284 | 38.3% | 39.5% | 0.97 | 0.250 | 0.315 | $6,900 | $7,600 | $5,500 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | R | H | CHW | 208.0 | 7.31 | 2.55 | 0.74 | 0.216 | 2.73 | 3.69 | 1.08 | 0.255 | 52.7% | 30.7% | 1.72 | 0.260 | 0.265 | $6,500 | $6,300 | $5,300 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | H | SEA | 78.2 | 5.49 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 0.281 | 4.46 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 0.324 | 59.9% | 22.1% | 2.71 | 0.247 | 0.336 | $6,200 | $6,200 | $5,000 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | R | A | ARI | 115.0 | 7.67 | 3.29 | 0.86 | 0.263 | 4.23 | 3.89 | 1.41 | 0.313 | 49.3% | 28.5% | 1.73 | 0.323 | 0.345 | $5,700 | $6,800 | $4,800 |
Investing Heavily
Yesterday I was avoiding both David Price and Corey Kluber as the two were facing each other and when you’ve got that many aces on the hill, grabbing the win is imperative. Given the early slate and the other starters, I’m going to back off my sentiment on Price a little. Both should be good for a decent strikeout total, but I want to wait on Kluber who, traditionally, seems to have his difficulties early in the year. Price, on the other hand, should be able to tear through a very soft Indians lineup.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU – Everything I said about him yesterday still holds true. He’s obviously now moved to this pricing tier due to the lack of other high-quality arms on the slate.
Johnny Cueto, SF – Sometimes you have to toss the 2015 numbers aside and understand the fact that the move back to the National League should be a positive move for Cueto. His strikeouts should see a nice up-tick and while I’m not in love with the .322 wOBA against the Brewers in Miller Park, I think he’ll do just fine. Last season’s second half struggles in Kansas City are well-noted, but his first half while still with the Reds and his overall playoff work, trump the overall KC numbers for me.
Jon Lester, CHC – After watching Jake Arrieta cruise through that Angels lineup yesterday, Lester pops up onto my radar a little bit more today. However, for his price on FanDuel and Draft Kings, I’m more inclined to look elsewhere. His price on Fantasy Aces, though, definitely has me intrigued. Love the ground ball rate and I love the pitcher-friendly environment. If he can focus on suppressing Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, he should have a solid game.
Moderately Priced
Justin Verlander, DET – He showed us in the second half last year that he finally learned how to pitch around his loss of velocity and he came back this spring looking even stronger. That spring start was reigned in though and he’s ready to attack the season, starting with Miami. The ballpark is extremely pitcher-friendly and the ground ball rate is solid. Given some of the other options today, he should be at the top of some late-slate lists.
Scott Kazmir, LAD – The Padres lineup is weak overall and sometimes when it’s this early in the season, a low run total expectation is all you need to turn someone’s head. If the Dodgers can get in front of James Shields like they did Tyson Ross, then Kazmir should have no problem walking away with a victory here.
Jose Quintana, CHW – I have high expectations for Q this year and like him a lot in Oakland against an A’s team that has such strikeout concerns in the heart of its lineup. He’s a solid ground ball pitcher with strong peripherals and gets the pitcher-friendly environment in Oakland today. He should be able to post some decent Ks for the day, so long as he continues his work towards going deep into games.
Bargain Basement
Jon Niese, PIT – He’s my dart for the day. The only one down in the lower priceing tier I will take a shot on in a GPP. It’s probably more gut-feel than anything else, but with the work he’s done with pitching guru Ray Searage, the heavy ground ball rate and the obvious over-zealousness of a young Cardinals lineup, I think the scales can tilt in his favor. I wouldn’t invest heavily in his use, but for a $2 GPP, I’m taking a leap.
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