While most people engage in that silly debate over what day is really considered Opening Day, I’ll embrace MLB’s desire to maximize revenue and consider the league to simply be that 21-year old girl who insists on celebrating her birthday for an entire week. Annoying? Sure, but if hang with her the entire time and let her do her thing, it can be one hell of a ride. So happy Opening Day, people! Again.
Now if Sunday was the tame night where you all go out for a nice dinner to open the celebration, Monday is easily the start of the after-party. We enjoyed a solid three-game slate to open the season, but now DFS players really get going with a raucous 12-game slate filled with some tasty match-ups. And what’s even better is that the guest list is mostly filled with A-List MLB celebrities.
But like any good party that’s just getting started, we have to invite everyone and then sift through the guest list to see who is worthy of your attention and who isn’t. And that’s where the Pitching Coach comes in. Obviously, the goal is to steer you towards the pitchers expected to perform the best each day, but we’re also looking to help you get the biggest return on your monetary investment. I usually like to play it safe in cash games and stick with the upper tier of hurlers, but sometimes you have to play it a little loose in GPPs, so we’re obviously looking for the guys who are expected to give you the most bang for your buck.
We’re still tweaking the data tables to find the right combination of stats to aid in our decision-making, but what I have below is a strong start. We’ve got all of today’s starting pitchers (organized by their Fantasy Aces price tag) listed here with their 2015 stats and from there, we’ll highlight our favorites organized by three pricing tiers – Paying Up, Reasonably Priced and Bargain Values. From there, the choice is yours.
| vs L | vs R | |||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | Opp | H/A | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | L | SD | A | 232.2 | 11.64 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 0.88 | 0.281 | 50.0% | 28.2% | 1.77 | 0.242 | 0.228 | $11,000 | $12,900 | $8,100 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | R | ATL | A | 228.2 | 10.86 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 2.79 | 2.88 | 0.92 | 0.268 | 35.8% | 45.4% | 0.79 | 0.284 | 0.232 | $10,500 | $12,300 | $7,750 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | L | OAK | A | 208.2 | 11.82 | 1.81 | 0.99 | 3.41 | 2.60 | 1.09 | 0.323 | 42.6% | 35.3% | 1.21 | 0.281 | 0.285 | $10,300 | $10,800 | $7,650 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | R | LAA | A | 229.0 | 9.28 | 1.89 | 0.39 | 1.77 | 2.61 | 0.86 | 0.246 | 56.2% | 22.8% | 2.47 | 0.205 | 0.244 | $10,700 | $11,200 | $7,550 |
| David Price | BOS | L | CLE | A | 220.1 | 9.19 | 1.92 | 0.69 | 2.45 | 3.24 | 1.08 | 0.290 | 40.4% | 36.4% | 1.11 | 0.285 | 0.265 | $10,000 | $9,800 | $7,450 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | MIL | A | 218.1 | 9.65 | 1.61 | 0.87 | 2.93 | 3.02 | 1.01 | 0.282 | 41.7% | 35.6% | 1.17 | 0.240 | 0.272 | $10,600 | $9,200 | $7,400 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | BOS | H | 222.0 | 9.93 | 1.82 | 0.89 | 3.49 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 0.297 | 42.4% | 35.9% | 1.18 | 0.322 | 0.238 | $9,600 | $8,600 | $7,400 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | R | COL | H | 222.2 | 8.08 | 1.62 | 0.57 | 1.66 | 3.22 | 0.84 | 0.229 | 48.0% | 32.9% | 1.46 | 0.240 | 0.211 | $10,100 | $9,000 | $7,300 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | TEX | A | 201.2 | 8.52 | 2.59 | 1.03 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 1.18 | 0.288 | 56.2% | 26.9% | 2.09 | 0.305 | 0.293 | $9,100 | $8,800 | $7,300 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | NYY | A | 232.0 | 8.38 | 1.98 | 0.66 | 2.48 | 2.75 | 1.02 | 0.269 | 61.7% | 19.6% | 3.14 | 0.201 | 0.268 | $9,400 | $9,000 | $7,250 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | R | SEA | H | 212.1 | 9.11 | 2.63 | 0.93 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.19 | 0.294 | 47.7% | 31.4% | 1.52 | 0.290 | 0.294 | $8,700 | $8,400 | $7,200 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | HOU | H | 154.0 | 8.12 | 1.58 | 1.46 | 3.51 | 3.29 | 0.99 | 0.242 | 47.0% | 33.8% | 1.39 | 0.296 | 0.280 | $7,500 | $8,800 | $6,900 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | CHW | H | 208.0 | 7.31 | 2.55 | 0.74 | 2.73 | 3.69 | 1.08 | 0.255 | 52.7% | 30.7% | 1.72 | 0.260 | 0.265 | $8,900 | $8,600 | $6,650 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | R | CHC | H | 207.1 | 7.64 | 3.30 | 0.87 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.24 | 0.274 | 54.9% | 28.0% | 1.96 | 0.279 | 0.309 | $7,100 | $8,500 | $6,500 |
| Tyson Ross | SD | R | LAD | H | 196.0 | 9.73 | 3.86 | 0.41 | 3.26 | 3.15 | 1.31 | 0.320 | 61.5% | 19.9% | 3.09 | 0.323 | 0.261 | $7,600 | $8,400 | $6,300 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | R | PHI | H | 95.1 | 9.82 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 4.15 | 3.28 | 1.14 | 0.286 | 47.2% | 31.9% | 1.48 | 0.332 | 0.271 | $6,400 | $8,900 | $6,300 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | R | WAS | H | 200.2 | 7.67 | 3.27 | 1.21 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 1.31 | 0.288 | 39.5% | 36.2% | 1.09 | 0.386 | 0.257 | $7,300 | $8,100 | $6,250 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | MIN | H | 173.0 | 6.24 | 3.33 | 1.04 | 4.99 | 4.58 | 1.39 | 0.293 | 43.5% | 35.4% | 1.23 | 0.309 | 0.353 | $5,800 | $6,100 | $6,150 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | BAL | A | 108.0 | 6.83 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 4.42 | 1.30 | 0.285 | 40.9% | 37.6% | 1.09 | 0.346 | 0.286 | $5,600 | $6,700 | $6,000 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | TB | A | 214.1 | 5.29 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 3.91 | 4.72 | 1.19 | 0.257 | 41.9% | 37.2% | 1.13 | 0.290 | 0.328 | $6,400 | $7,900 | $5,800 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | SF | H | 108.2 | 4.97 | 3.06 | 1.16 | 4.72 | 4.57 | 1.54 | 0.320 | 51.6% | 28.4% | 1.82 | 0.376 | 0.349 | $4,300 | $5,400 | $5,750 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | R | CIN | A | 146.0 | 7.46 | 2.65 | 1.36 | 4.62 | 4.16 | 1.33 | 0.291 | 42.4% | 36.5% | 1.16 | 0.339 | 0.330 | $5,400 | $7,300 | $5,650 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | R | TOR | H | 66.2 | 10.39 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 3.10 | 3.47 | 1.17 | 0.283 | 36.8% | 44.3% | 0.83 | 0.227 | 0.324 | $7,400 | $8,800 | $5,500 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | L | ARI | A | 149.0 | 8.09 | 3.93 | 1.03 | 4.17 | 3.84 | 1.36 | 0.288 | 52.0% | 27.3% | 1.90 | 0.293 | 0.328 | $5,000 | $7,000 | $5,500 |
One thing I will say before offering up my favorite plays for the day: With this many aces on the mound, I always lean on the elites. Of course you want to keep some money for some elite bats, but with so many guys who have the potential to dominate from the hill, you want to make sure you, at the least, keep pace if their choice in arms puts up strong totals.
Paying Up
Clayton Kershaw, LAD – OK, fine. Not exactly going out on a limb here, but like I said, with this many elites on the hill, you need to keep yourself covered and Kershaw is that big, warm, fuzzy blanket you always love to have wrapped around you. The Padres were one of the weakest hitting teams last year and they did nothing to improve their offense in the offseason. In fact, they actually made themselves worse by replacing Justin Upton with his much less-talented brother, Melvin.
Max Scherzer, WAS – Go ahead, let’s hear it. You paid up for the DFS Playbook Pro and here I am suggesting Kershaw and Scherzer. But in truth, why wouldn’t you use at least one of these guys? Scherzer gets a weak-hitting lineup in a pitcher-friendly park and has had some pretty sick wOBA splits over the last few seasons. If the Nationals left-handed bats stick it to Julio Teheran fast enough, he should lock in the win fairly quickly too.
Chris Sale, CHW – The A’s were one of the toughest teams to strike out last year, but Sale’s 11.82 K/9 is just too good to pass up the potential. Oakland also had one of the weakest HR/FB rates last season and the only big bat they brought in was Khris Davis who hit .212 against southpaws in 2015. Run support could be a tough as the White Sox are up against Sonny Gray, but Sale should hold them in check well enough to grab the win.
Madison Bumgarner, SF – While the diagnosis of a neuroma gives me some pause when looking at the long haul, this match-up with the Brewers seems too good to pass up. Last season they had major strikeout issues against southpaws and didn’t exactly do themselves any favors by adding strikeout maven Chris Carter to the mix. Yes, Miller Park is a hitter-friendly environment, but with a K/9 that’s better than a batter per inning, a decent ground ball rate and some pretty sext wOBA splits, he should offer up a solid performance.
And for the record, why not Sale, Price, Arrieta or Kluber? Well, I’m ruling out Price and Kluber because they’re facing each other and run a high risk of neither coming away with the win. Arrieta heads back to the AL where he’s just not as strong. Looking at interleague numbers from last year, Arrieta’s strikeout rate dropped and a third of his home runs allowed came from AL bats.
Reasonably Priced
Dallas Keuchel, HOU – Two-straight seasons with a 60-plus percent ground ball rate immediately turns my head and while my heart longs for the pinstripes to start the season strong, Keuchel is just too darn good. The make-up of the Yankees offense isn’t too far off from where it was the last two seasons and in that time, Keuchel has faced them three times (twice at Yankee Stadium) and posted a 1.88 ERA with a 26:1 K:BB over 24 innings. His wOBA splits scream dominance, so keep your ears open here.
Sonny Gray, OAK – Earning the win could be a tough one as he squares off against Sale, but it’s tough to look away from so much upside here. Don’t sweat the struggles this spring as the dead arm which plagued him early is a thing of the past and his numbers down the stretch in March looked strong. He’s a fantastic talent and gets a home start in pitcher-friendly O.com Stadium against a team that struggled mightily to put up runs last year. They added Todd Frazier, but still have enough question marks in the lineup to alleviate any concerns.
Garrett Richards, LAA – Maybe I’ve been listening too much to Glenn Colton over the last few weeks, but Richards is really starting to grow on me, not just for seasonal play, but for DFS match-ups as well. His first start comes in pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium against a team that struck out at a rather alarming rate last season. The near 55-percent ground ball rate also turns me on, so if his slider is even close to midseason form, he should have the Cubbies fishing outside the zone and mashing the ball in the dirt most of the day.
Bargain Values
Raisel Iglesias, CIN – His mediocre velocity and home runs allowed from last year give me some pause in seasonal leagues, but Iglesias and his uber-sexy strikeout rate can be an outstanding daily play with the right match-up. Hmmmm. The Phillies? Yeah, I’d say that’s the right match-up. The Phillies don’t have a whole lot of punch in their lineup and I have a sneaking suspicion we’re going to be picking on them a lot this season. His price on Draft Kings keeps me from using him there, but I’m all over him for GPPs on Aces and FanDuel.
R.A. Dickey, TOR – So you wanna throw a dart, huh? Well nothing better than a knuckleballer against a relatively weak offensive lineup in a pitcher-friendly environment. Center fielder Kevin Pillar should be put to work in a major way for this game, but Dickey should be able to induce enough routine fly balls to keep the Rays in check. It’s not the safest of plays, but for a GPP flyer, he’s definitely a better option than most at his price.
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