Heading into the final week of April here and we’re really seeing the data take shape. Personally, I still want to give most, if not all, of these starters another two or three starts before I stop taking so many frequent looks back to their 2015 splits, but as I’ve said before, with free agency in play, many of these offenses are built differently. I’ve taken a head-first dive into the numbers here and have studied a number of splits for both pitchers and hitters and believe I’ve come up with a pretty solid list of options for today. Not a whole lot of bargain basement options worth trying out, but we’ve got a couple in the lower pricing tiers you may consider for GPP play.
One note: Neither Miguel Gonzalez nor Cesar Ramos are available on any of the three big DFS sites, so I’ve left them off, and while Kevin Gausman is available, his return from the DL forces us to look back at 2015 totals, and regardless of those numbers, he’s just not a guy I trust.
Now here’s what we’re looking at for today…
| vs L | vs R | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | R | H | CIN | 20.0 | 13.05 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.205 | 19.3% | 0.90 | 1.56 | 0.95 | 0.341 | 60.5% | 23.3% | 2.60 | 0.287 | 0.166 | $11,400 | $11,400 | $7,800 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | H | SD | 23.0 | 11.35 | 3.13 | 1.96 | 0.258 | 11.0% | 3.91 | 3.41 | 1.39 | 0.322 | 36.5% | 39.7% | 0.92 | 0.252 | 0.366 | $11,000 | $12,000 | $7,000 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | R | H | STL | 24.0 | 8.25 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 0.277 | 11.1% | 5.25 | 3.79 | 1.42 | 0.329 | 45.6% | 35.4% | 1.29 | 0.376 | 0.298 | $10,400 | $9,700 | $7,200 |
| Chris Archer | TB | R | H | BAL | 19.2 | 13.27 | 5.03 | 2.75 | 0.345 | 11.5% | 7.32 | 2.99 | 2.08 | 0.462 | 46.6% | 25.9% | 1.80 | 0.402 | 0.458 | $10,200 | $10,300 | $6,500 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | R | A | MIN | 18.1 | 11.29 | 4.42 | 0.49 | 0.129 | 15.8% | 1.47 | 3.72 | 0.93 | 0.184 | 46.2% | 46.2% | 1.00 | 0.155 | 0.324 | $9,200 | $10,700 | $6,750 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | R | A | TEX | 17.2 | 11.21 | 1.53 | 2.04 | 0.288 | 10.1% | 6.11 | 2.84 | 1.36 | 0.362 | 43.1% | 39.2% | 1.10 | 0.424 | 0.351 | $9,100 | $6,400 | $5,900 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | L | A | ARI | 20.0 | 11.70 | 3.60 | 0.00 | 0.141 | 11.2% | 2.70 | 2.54 | 0.90 | 0.222 | 55.6% | 24.4% | 2.27 | 0.088 | 0.205 | $9,000 | $8,300 | $6,450 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | R | H | OAK | 19.1 | 6.98 | 2.79 | 0.00 | 0.211 | 8.0% | 0.00 | 4.05 | 1.09 | 0.268 | 46.4% | 35.7% | 1.30 | 0.202 | 0.262 | $8,900 | $8,200 | $6,900 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | R | H | HOU | 18.0 | 7.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.217 | 7.6% | 1.50 | 3.23 | 0.94 | 0.259 | 56.4% | 25.5% | 2.21 | 0.233 | 0.252 | $8,800 | $9,000 | $6,450 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | R | H | KC | 24.0 | 9.38 | 3.38 | 0.75 | 0.242 | 12.6% | 3.00 | 3.41 | 1.29 | 0.313 | 48.4% | 28.1% | 1.72 | 0.214 | 0.366 | $8,400 | $8,500 | $6,600 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | R | A | LAA | 20.0 | 9.45 | 2.25 | 0.45 | 0.188 | 12.9% | 1.35 | 3.73 | 0.90 | 0.255 | 25.5% | 51.1% | 0.50 | 0.187 | 0.270 | $8,200 | $8,800 | $6,600 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | H | CHW | 28.1 | 4.76 | 2.22 | 0.95 | 0.200 | 6.6% | 4.13 | 4.07 | 0.99 | 0.207 | 61.8% | 24.7% | 2.50 | 0.268 | 0.255 | $8,100 | $8,700 | $6,350 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | L | A | LAD | 18.1 | 7.85 | 1.47 | 0.98 | 0.271 | 8.9% | 4.91 | 3.34 | 1.20 | 0.327 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 1.33 | 0.288 | 0.325 | $8,000 | $8,400 | $6,000 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | R | A | NYM | 23.1 | 8.49 | 1.93 | 0.77 | 0.280 | 9.1% | 3.09 | 3.55 | 1.33 | 0.348 | 35.7% | 37.1% | 0.96 | 0.322 | 0.313 | $7,900 | $9,200 | $6,400 |
| Ross Stripling | LAD | R | H | MIA | 17.0 | 6.88 | 3.71 | 0.00 | 0.180 | 7.7% | 2.65 | 3.88 | 1.06 | 0.229 | 53.3% | 26.7% | 2.00 | 0.240 | 0.205 | $7,600 | $5,600 | $5,800 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | R | H | BOS | 22.1 | 6.85 | 3.22 | 1.61 | 0.256 | 8.2% | 5.64 | 4.70 | 1.39 | 0.275 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 1.00 | 0.412 | 0.247 | $7,600 | $7,200 | $6,000 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | R | A | ATL | 19.1 | 11.17 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 0.205 | 8.2% | 4.66 | 2.89 | 0.93 | 0.227 | 42.9% | 38.8% | 1.11 | 0.171 | 0.415 | $7,400 | $8,100 | $6,150 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SD | L | A | SF | 17.2 | 12.74 | 4.58 | 0.51 | 0.175 | 17.4% | 2.04 | 3.18 | 1.13 | 0.270 | 47.4% | 42.1% | 1.13 | 0.333 | 0.242 | $6,700 | $6,600 | $5,900 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | L | H | CLE | 15.1 | 7.04 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 0.283 | 7.9% | 5.87 | 3.71 | 1.37 | 0.295 | 55.3% | 29.8% | 1.86 | 0.566 | 0.331 | $6,700 | $6,200 | $5,600 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | R | A | SEA | 16.2 | 4.86 | 2.16 | 1.62 | 0.284 | 4.9% | 5.94 | 4.29 | 1.38 | 0.291 | 39.7% | 29.3% | 1.35 | 0.499 | 0.257 | $6,700 | $5,800 | $5,550 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | R | A | TB | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $6,500 | $8,600 | $5,750 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | R | H | PIT | 24.1 | 7.03 | 2.22 | 1.48 | 0.211 | 9.4% | 3.33 | 4.03 | 1.03 | 0.224 | 39.1% | 37.7% | 1.04 | 0.234 | 0.317 | $6,400 | $5,900 | $5,500 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | L | A | COL | 13.2 | 4.61 | 8.56 | 1.32 | 0.397 | 9.9% | 7.24 | 6.15 | 2.63 | 0.429 | 62.5% | 22.9% | 2.73 | 0.367 | 0.514 | $5,400 | $5,200 | $5,600 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | R | A | DET | 17.2 | 7.64 | 3.06 | 1.02 | 0.156 | 10.9% | 2.04 | 3.45 | 0.91 | 0.170 | 64.6% | 25.0% | 2.58 | 0.253 | 0.212 | $5,400 | $5,900 | $5,450 |
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Investing Heavily
Noah Syndergaard, NYM – If you’re paying up for pitching today, he’s the only one I trust. The Reds offense continues to struggle and is posting just a .286 wOBA versus right-handers while also offering a 27th-ranked 70 wRC+. Their 20.4-percent K-rate is sitting at 22.4-percent over the last seven days with just a .265 wOBA. With a tasty 13.05 K/9 and a swinging strike rate of nearly 20-percent, Syndergaard should have an easy time with this lineup.
Moderately Priced
Danny Salazar, CLE – The Twins lineup has certainly shown signs of life lately, as evidenced by their .329 wOBA over the past week, but I remain focused on the strikeouts, both for them and for Salazar. The Twins are fanning 24.7-percent of the time against righties this year and even over the last week where they’ve looked better, they’re still whiffing at the same rate. Salazar’s 15.3-percent swinging strike rate means he’s missing a ton of bats and he should fare just as well against Minnesota as he has against any of the teams he’s faced this season.
Jordan Zimmermann, DET – You’ve got to keep riding the wave until it breaks and while I don’t love this match-up given the way the A’s have hit lately, it’s real tough to go against Zimmermann at this point. The A’s have a .331 wOBA over the past week, but still have just a .293 mark against right-handers this season. Where I think the advantage tilts the pitcher’s way is in the ground ball rate. The A’s have a 44.1-percent ground ball rate against righties this season, but looking closer over the last week, that number has jumped to 50.4-percent. Their .301 BABIP over that span means that many of those grounders, which really haven’t been hard-hit, have luckily found holes. Perhaps the Tigers defense stifles those grounders a little better.
Middle Class
Ian Kennedy, KC – It’s really tough to find worse offensive numbers than those of the Angels this season. Mike Trout seems like a man alone on an island and while Albert Pujols went yard yesterday, his overall numbers have been awful. As a team, the Halos are posting a .241 wOBA against righties and that number over the last seven days has only gone up to .262. Kennedy may not reach his strikeout per inning average against them, but he should still post strong totals. As for the win, it all comes down to how Garrett Richards performs. It’s not a great match-up for him, but the Royals right-handed bats need to show up to give Kennedy some strong run support.
Marcus Stroman, TOR – I love this match-up for so many reasons. First off, the White Sox have been terrible on the road, posting just a .265 wOBA with a 21.8-percent strikeout rate and 50.4-percent ground ball rate. Against right-handers this season, those numbers are .282, 18.8-percent and 44.4-percent. Not as bad as the road splits, but still plenty awful. Add in Stroman’s 61.8-percent ground ball rate and 2.50 GB/FB, I think the White Sox continue to mash everything into the dirt and save the Blue Jays outfielders from having to move very much.
Bargain Basement
Ross Stripling, LAD – The Marlins have been slightly below-average against righties this season, having posted a .304 wOBA with a 20.2-percent strikeout rate. But I like this match-up for Stripling due to the Fish mashing the ball in the dirt 50.5-percent of the time against them (righties, that is). Couple that with the Marlins’ .298 wOBA over the last week with a 51.7-percent ground ball rate and I think Stripling has a strong night at home.
Rick Porcello, BOS – Let me preface this with the fact that I hate recommending Porcello and the only reason I’m doing this is because the Braves offense is really just that bad. Porcello tends to have those reverse split troubles, but the Braves have been lousy against almost everyone they’ve faced. If he can keep their right-handed bats in check, which truthfully doesn’t seem like a tall order, then he can be successful. Of course, we have seen him blow up for no good reason before. The numbers say start him, but my gut always keeps me away. Use at your own risk.
Super-Dart
Kendall Graveman, OAK – If you don’t believe heavily in Zimmermann and feel like the A’s can put some runs on the board, then this might be an interesting dart to play. For a $2 GPP tournament though, it could be worth the risk if you look at the Tigers numbers over the last week. In a seven-day span, they’ve struck out 26-percent of the time, have just a .230 wOBA , a 0.66 ISO and are now facing Graveman’s 64.6-percent ground ball rate. It’s a serious longshot, in my opinion, but no risk, no reward.
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