It’s a trap!!!
At least that’s what’s going through my head every time I look up and down tonight’s pitching match-ups. We’ve got some big arms going up against some weak-hitting opponents and the skeptic in me just can’t help to think that playing some of these guys tonight isn’t going to blow up in my face. Then I go and look at Jeff Mans’ DFS Playbook and lo and behold, he says basically the same thing. Am I nervous? Maybe a little. But I’ve got to stay the course and take that risk because some of these match-ups are just too darn tasty. Here’s what it looks like tonight:
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | A | LAA | 18.0 | 10.00 | 6.50 | 0.00 | 0.138 | 1.00 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 0.200 | 64.3% | 26.2% | 2.45 | 0.282 | 0.169 | $11,000 | $10,800 | $7,350 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | L | A | CIN | 20.1 | 8.41 | 1.77 | 0.89 | 0.183 | 2.21 | 2.65 | 0.84 | 0.220 | 42.0% | 24.0% | 1.75 | 0.167 | 0.249 | $10,600 | $10,000 | $6,400 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | A | TOR | 19.1 | 7.91 | 3.72 | 0.47 | 0.222 | 2.33 | 3.69 | 1.24 | 0.278 | 58.2% | 27.3% | 2.13 | 0.229 | 0.313 | $9,900 | $9,500 | $6,650 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | R | A | ATL | 17.1 | 4.67 | 3.63 | 0.52 | 0.294 | 5.71 | 4.51 | 1.56 | 0.328 | 50.9% | 26.3% | 1.93 | 0.309 | 0.357 | $9,800 | $10,300 | $7,000 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | L | H | MIN | 13.0 | 8.31 | 2.08 | 0.69 | 0.152 | 0.69 | 3.73 | 0.77 | 0.182 | 40.6% | 50.0% | 0.81 | 0.115 | 0.235 | $9,000 | $9,100 | $6,500 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | H | BOS | 12.2 | 7.82 | 2.13 | 0.71 | 0.350 | 6.39 | 4.74 | 1.89 | 0.417 | 35.4% | 47.9% | 0.74 | 0.491 | 0.306 | $8,700 | $7,400 | $6,200 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | R | A | DET | 5.0 | 10.80 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 0.211 | 1.80 | 2.14 | 0.80 | 0.250 | 38.5% | 38.5% | 1.00 | 0.326 | 0.211 | $8,500 | $8,500 | $5,800 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | R | A | SD | 16.1 | 3.86 | 4.96 | 0.55 | 0.324 | 8.27 | 6.04 | 1.90 | 0.350 | 38.3% | 36.7% | 1.05 | 0.369 | 0.436 | $8,500 | $9,700 | $6,650 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | H | MIA | 19.1 | 6.52 | 3.72 | 0.93 | 0.270 | 3.72 | 4.23 | 1.45 | 0.310 | 53.3% | 30.0% | 1.78 | 0.346 | 0.287 | $8,400 | $9,300 | $6,500 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | L | H | TEX | 17.2 | 9.17 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.261 | 2.55 | 2.62 | 1.19 | 0.353 | 41.2% | 25.5% | 1.62 | 0.158 | 0.323 | $8,300 | $8,700 | $6,250 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAD | L | A | COL | 14.0 | 7.71 | 3.21 | 1.93 | 0.263 | 6.43 | 4.54 | 1.43 | 0.286 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 1.11 | 0.360 | 0.316 | $8,100 | $6,600 | $5,900 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | R | H | CLE | 16.1 | 8.27 | 3.31 | 1.65 | 0.308 | 7.16 | 4.23 | 1.59 | 0.362 | 34.7% | 42.9% | 0.81 | 0.276 | 0.476 | $8,100 | $8,400 | $6,200 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | R | A | KC | 16.0 | 5.06 | 3.38 | 0.00 | 0.277 | 5.63 | 5.29 | 1.50 | 0.321 | 34.5% | 43.6% | 0.79 | 0.327 | 0.312 | $7,900 | $6,300 | $5,850 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | L | H | PIT | 19.2 | 6.41 | 1.83 | 1.37 | 0.267 | 2.75 | 3.68 | 1.22 | 0.293 | 50.0% | 32.8% | 1.53 | 0.189 | 0.355 | $7,800 | $7,600 | $5,950 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | A | NYY | 18.1 | 10.31 | 1.47 | 0.98 | 0.217 | 2.95 | 3.04 | 0.98 | 0.283 | 43.8% | 37.5% | 1.17 | 0.221 | 0.275 | $7,600 | $7,900 | $5,950 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | A | ARI | 18.0 | 7.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 0.194 | 3.50 | 3.79 | 1.00 | 0.204 | 52.9% | 33.3% | 1.59 | 0.258 | 0.295 | $7,100 | $6,400 | $6,050 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | L | H | TB | 10.2 | 6.75 | 4.22 | 0.84 | 0.262 | 5.06 | 4.49 | 1.50 | 0.303 | 55.9% | 32.4% | 1.73 | 0.435 | 0.292 | $7,100 | $7,700 | $5,750 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | R | A | MIL | 19.0 | 10.89 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 0.233 | 5.68 | 2.51 | 1.05 | 0.298 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 1.00 | 0.274 | 0.320 | $6,900 | $8,300 | $6,350 |
| Andrew Cashner | SD | R | H | STL | 15.0 | 9.00 | 3.00 | 0.60 | 0.279 | 5.40 | 3.64 | 1.47 | 0.356 | 41.3% | 34.8% | 1.19 | 0.271 | 0.432 | $6,800 | $7,800 | $5,900 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | R | H | OAK | 20.0 | 9.00 | 3.15 | 0.90 | 0.145 | 1.35 | 2.99 | 0.85 | 0.170 | 59.2% | 24.5% | 2.42 | 0.278 | 0.144 | $6,700 | $7,200 | $6,000 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | R | A | CHW | 18.1 | 4.42 | 5.40 | 0.98 | 0.242 | 3.44 | 5.09 | 1.42 | 0.255 | 60.8% | 21.6% | 2.82 | 0.214 | 0.376 | $6,700 | $6,900 | $5,400 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | R | A | HOU | 12.2 | 7.82 | 2.13 | 0.71 | 0.250 | 2.13 | 4.15 | 1.18 | 0.306 | 45.9% | 37.8% | 1.21 | 0.321 | 0.290 | $6,500 | $6,700 | $5,150 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | R | A | WAS | 17.2 | 5.09 | 5.09 | 1.02 | 0.239 | 3.57 | 5.05 | 1.53 | 0.254 | 60.7% | 24.6% | 2.47 | 0.320 | 0.326 | $6,200 | $6,500 | $5,800 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | R | H | PHI | 2.1 | 0.00 | 11.57 | 0.00 | 0.533 | 19.29 | 8.18 | 4.71 | 0.533 | 57.1% | 14.3% | 4.00 | 0.704 | 0.441 | $6,100 | $6,000 | $5,400 |
| Jarred Cosart | MIA | R | A | SF | 10.1 | 6.10 | 7.84 | 0.00 | 0.205 | 6.10 | 4.59 | 1.65 | 0.250 | 64.5% | 6.5% | 10.00 | 0.285 | 0.331 | $6,000 | $5,700 | $5,500 |
| Bud Norris | ATL | R | H | NYM | 17.1 | 6.75 | 3.63 | 1.56 | 0.301 | 6.23 | 4.66 | 1.67 | 0.333 | 45.0% | 36.7% | 1.23 | 0.408 | 0.339 | $6,000 | $7,500 | $5,550 |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | R | H | CHC | 5.2 | 3.18 | 1.59 | 3.18 | 0.250 | 4.76 | 4.98 | 1.24 | 0.200 | 45.5% | 27.3% | 1.67 | 0.382 | 0.352 | $5,900 | $5,200 | $5,350 |
| Nick Tropeano | LAA | R | H | SEA | 10.2 | 7.59 | 3.38 | 0.00 | 0.262 | 0.84 | 5.15 | 1.41 | 0.333 | 18.8% | 59.4% | 0.32 | 0.354 | 0.255 | $5,800 | $6,100 | $6,000 |
| Chris Young | KC | R | H | BAL | 13.2 | 6.59 | 4.61 | 1.98 | 0.328 | 7.90 | 5.53 | 1.98 | 0.354 | 36.0% | 44.0% | 0.82 | 0.492 | 0.315 | $5,500 | $5,800 | $5,500 |
| Jon Gray | COL | R | H | LAD | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $5,200 | $6,200 | $4,950 |
Investing Heavily
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Felix Hernandez, SEA – Mike Trout’s got some sexy BvP numbers against King Felix, but how do you go against an arm like this when it’s facing an offense like that of the Angels right now? While the Halos aren’t striking out to often against righties, their .239 wOBA and .066 ISO make for an extremely favorable match-up. If you’re going to go big on pitching, this seems like one of the more sensible ways to lean.
Jon Lester, CHC – Why wouldn’t you go with Lester the day after the Reds were no-hit by teammate Jake Arrieta? The Cubs should jump out to an early lead against Jon Moscot and it’s almost a guaranteed win, especially when you see just how bad the Reds bullpen is as well. However, my one caveat here is that the Reds have a .360 wOBA against lefties this season and don’t strike out too often against them. Lester may get the win but he could also give up some runs here.
Matt Harvey, NYM – Is this the 2016 coming out party all the Harvey owners have been clamoring for? Sure seems like it with a Braves team that has not only posted just a .284 wOBA against righties this year, but just a .281 wOBA over the last seven days as well. They’re not hitting for power (.082 ISO) and they have a 21.4-percent K-rate against right-handers, so if there was a day for Harvey to shine, it would be today.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS – When you look at the match-up here and see the Twins striking out 22.8-percent of the time against southpaws, you’ve got to love Gio’s chances. However, over the last seven days, the Twins have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors with a .396 wOBA and a 161 wRC+ and they’ve actually raised their wOBA against lefties to a .305 mark. I think he can fare well against them in this interleague match-up, but similarly to Lester, I could see him giving up some runs. Funny enough (because I hate this guy), Joe Mauer has a pair of HR in 17 AB against him.
Moderately Priced
Adam Wainwright, STL – Similarly to Harvey, this could be the day Wainwright finally gets back on-track. The match-up against the Padres is crazy favorable if you’re looking at their .246 wOBA and 27.7-percent strikeout rate, but they’re also mashing the ball in the dirt nearly 50-percent of the time. Waino is by no means a heavy ground ball pitcher right now, but if you look at his history, he most certainly is. In fact, he actually owns a 48.8-percent career ground ball rate. If you want to lay up a little on the pitching costs, he could be a solid play here.
Matt Moore, TB – Moore has been on fire lately and has brought his K/9 up to a 10.31 mark for the season. While the Yankees are traditionally better at home, they’ve been a little cold lately and have posted just a .295 wOBA with a 21.7-percent strikeout rate over their last seven days. Couple that with a .280 wOBA and a 0.76 ISO against lefties this season and Moore is looking like a fairly nice bargain here.
Middle Class
Aaron Nola, PHI – This is a tough call for me, because the Brewers are actually tearing it up at home. But the strikeout situation gives me hope that Nola can neutralize most of their bats. The Brewers are fanning 26.8-percent of the time at home and 25.1-percent of the time against righties. With Nola’s 10-percent swinging strike rate, he’s missing a ton of bats right now. It won’t be a perfect night for him, but his strikeouts could definitely supplement his DFS performance totals.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR – The home start bums me out a little as the Rogers Centre plays like the Canadian version of Coors Field, but the heavy ground ball rate for Sanchez against a soft-hitting A’s lineup that posts a .285 wOBA and almost a 43-percent ground ball rate against righties makes me feel a little better. I wish the A’s struck out a little more, but I still think this match-up tilts very favorably towards the pitcher.
Bargain Basement
Kyle Gibson, MIN – So here’s my dart for the day and unfortunately, his success could come at Gio Gonzalez’ expense. I’ve voiced my concerns over how well the Twins have been hitting lately, so if they continue to provide the run support, this could be one of those nights where Gibson becomes a bright. Shining star. Having Bryce Harper and David Murphy in the meat of the order has been huge for the Nats, but they’ve also been fanning 24.8-percent of the time over the last week and have a 23-percent K-rate against righties this year. They also have just a .293 wOBA against them, so if the batters are having an off night, Gibson could be a big surprise.
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