First thing I see at 3 a.m. when I open my eyes to complete silence and blackness in my camper deep in the woods of Massachusetts is a post on Facebook from Jeff Mans congratulating Tommy G for a huge night in DFS. Instantly my hands go to the Twitter icon on my phone because my instincts tell me if Tommy G is having a huge night there will be screenshots of it on Twitter. Sure enough, there was. $5,000 in entry fees to win $90,000. My first thought as a guy who played $25 in GPPs last night on FanDuel was holy s***, $5,000. The luxuries of playing in GPPs with $2,500 entry fees is the simple fact you are playing 69 people instead of 54,000. Of course, you also could lose $2,500 instead of $3. What I am trying to get to here is this: I don’t care about what he won, the lesson you, as players, should take away from this is the contest selection. He plays in GPPs with the least number of contestants with the highest payouts he can find. What you need to realize is that you can do this for $5.

When you think of winning in DFS your mind instantly goes to the big payout. Meanwhile, you could play in small $5 leagues versus 20 people where the top payout is $50. So, why not try to play in 10 of them? You have a good night and you just turned $50 into $500. Tommy is smart, that is why he is successful. Contest selection. Do not get me wrong, I play the $2, $5, and $10 single entries on FanDuel everyday along with the $2 Flare, $3 Moonshot, and a few entries in the $3 Slider on DraftKings, but I also sprinkle in these 10- and 20-man low entry leagues. Believe me, unless you are throwing in a ton of lineups, or have a ton of money to play with Tommy G and the rest of the high rollers, this is the easiest way in my experience to profit. If you can beat 20 people even once per week than you just made $150, do this over a month, you made $600. I am happy with that. But you have to beat 20 people.

So with a fresh cup of coffee from my new single serve Kuerig machine (which leaked all over my counter for some reason today) and the sounds of Steve Sax (who was my favorite player for a spell when I was very little), I bring you today’s Pitching Coach article. Also, congrats Tommy G, anytime you 18X your money, you had a monster night, now can I borrow $90,000?

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

Oh boy, today is beautiful as far as DFS is concerned. The only place on the map I see any baseball concerns is in Florida and that is of no concern. From Texas right through Washington D.C. it is going to be in the low to high-90’s today. The Midwest from Chicago to New York is going to be in the low to high-80’s. And as always the West Coast is going to be beautiful for baseball with temps in the 80’s in Southern California and high-60’s around Oakland.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow are weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Afternoon Slate

I like the Sunday slate. I split my action between the day and night. Both have some nice standout pitching options. The day slate is the one I find a little more interesting. All the good plays have some risk.  

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (FanDuel cash)

Are the Astros dangerous? Yes. Do they strike out a lot? Hell yes.

Yu Darvish today gets a great park shift pitching at Minute Maid Park which is 29th in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -112 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.0. The Houston Astros as a team are striking out 23.9 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA and wRC+ of 98 versus RHP. At home they are 25th in MLB in wOBA at .309 and are ice cold right now batting .202 (27th in MLB) while striking out 26.1 percent of the time with a pathetic wRC+ of 40 (last in MLB) over the last seven days. Darvish is averaging a little over six innings per start right now and currently has a 12.68 K/9 which could spell a ton of points today facing a strikeout heavy team like Houston. He currently also has an ERA of 3.29 and xFIP of 2.64 which makes me feel all the more comfortable. Over his last four starts he has only allowed more than two earned runs one time (allowed three earned runs in Baltimore on August 2nd) while striking out 35 batters over his last 22 2/3 innings. Since 2013 he has a 2.93 ERA at Minute Maid Park with 44 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings. His price on DK is quite high which should lower his ownership there, while on FanDuel and Fantasy Aces he is more-than-manageable. I am all in, are Yu?

Danger Zone

We have a decent amount of BVP here with the current Astros roster batting .264 (24-for-91) with two HR (George Springer and Colby Rasmus), seven RBI, and 32 strikeouts.

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (cash)

There is one thing I am pretty sure would happen if today was Christmas, that is the Reds would all get lumps of Cole in their stockings. Today Gerrit Cole is at home in PNC Park which yields a few runs but is 26th in HR allowed in MLB. He is a -172 favorite and Vegas has this one pegged with an expected run total of 7.5. You take the LHB of Jay Bruce away from the Reds lineup and it sure looks a lot less scary. The Reds are striking out 21.2 percent of the time with .304 wOBA and wRC+ of 84 versus RHP on the season. On the road they are 28th in wOBA at .293 and their wRC+ drops to a horrible 79. Cole over his last three starts versus the Phillies, Mariners, and Braves on the road has a 1.35 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 20 innings. His price on all three sites seems fair and he is a great cash game play across the sites today.

Danger Zone

The BVP today at first glance looks a worse than it is and has more impact on DK with none for the most part on FD. The current Reds roster is batting .315 (23-for-73) with no HR, six RBI, and 22 strikeouts versus Cole. I would be more concerned with his 2.73 ERA versus his 4.04 xFIP which could mean disaster is looming.

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (borderline cash)

For the most part I would not use Dylan Bundy on FanDuel or any other one-pitcher site. But on two-pitcher sites like Fantasy Aces he is worth a look. Today Bundy is taking on the Chicago White Sox at U.S Cellular Field so the park shift certainly is not favorable by any means. He is however a -145 favorite today with this game having a whopping expected run total of 9.5 (highest on day slate). Ok, bad park, high expected run total, what gives Mr. Colvin? Simple, Dylan Freaking Bundy. The kid is on fire and the Chicago White Sox are far less scary than you think. The White Sox are striking out 19.5 percent of the time with a low .309 wOBA versus RHP on the season. The wOBA elevates slightly at home to .325 and they also are batting .272 over the last seven days. I realize I am not making a strong argument here so maybe this will help. Over his last two starts versus the Rockies and Rangers at home he has a 2.13 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings. If he has put it together then this is a bargain and he should be able to handle this streaky team, otherwise, you will be Tweeting how I bad my Bundy play was.

Danger Zone

The first thing that scares me is the last time I played Dylan Bundy in my lineup he killed it more like Ted Bundy while pitching more like Al Bundy. Second, his ERA is 3.05 and his xFIP is 4.09 which always means disaster could be a pitch away. He has reverse splits with RHB having more success and the biggest boppers in the White Sox lineup are all RHB for the most part.

Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros (GPP)

Who the hell is Joe Musgrove? How many more secret weapons do the Astros and Cubs have hidden away? I am not sure of the second one but I may be able to help unravel the mystery of Musgrove. This year in AA he had a 10.34 K/9 with a 0.34 ERA over 26 1/3 innings. When he received the bump to AAA Fresno his K/9 dipped to 8.69 with a 3.81 ERA over 59 innings. In his first outing at the big league level versus the Blue Jays he went 4 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts and zero earned runs. Everything I see here says he may be worth a shot today. The Rangers are striking out 19.4 percent of the time with a .330 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road the wOBA dips to .313 and they are struggling as a team batting .241 with a wRC+ of 79 over the last seven days. Considering quite often teams have a hard time hitting a pitcher (at least good ones) the first time they face them I am going to use him today. When you factor in the fact the Rangers are running cold as well, I have no choice but to throw down a few dollars.

Danger Zone

Who the hell knows? The stats say he should be Nolan Ryan today but by the end of the day he could be John Danks. I also am not sure how many innings he goes regardless of performance considering he didn’t make five dominating the Blue Jays. The Rangers have some dangerous LHB in their lineup which could make things a bit dicey. This is a GPP play, risk is usually involved.

The other player I kind of like but for some reason am struggling to put into the article today is Matt Andriese. He gets a great park shift at home but the Minnesota Twins are red hot right now currently boasting a wRC+ of 167 over the last seven days. Andriese more-than-likely will net you 10 or more points on DK but the risk is high today.

Jacob deGrom is also going to be highly owned today facing the Tigers and I will have at least one lineup I am sure by mornings end but it is tough to throw him out there today.

Night Slate

I have never seen a slate full of so many good starting pitchers I do not want to use.

Matt Shoemaker has not looked all that great and the Mariners have some pretty beefy LHB. The Angels really hit LHP well so James Paxton could get lit up today.

Adam Conley is in Colorado which certainly although making a sneaky GPP play today should by days’ end be a complete disaster for him.

Kyle Hendricks is going to be popular but I am fading him. I just hate attacking the A’s for the most part. Not saying he is not a viable play, just not one I am using.

David Price, Boston Red Sox (cash)

Although last night’s Eduardo Rodriguez play could have fared better I am attacking my Dodgers again tonight with David Price. Not only do you get to have a SP in the late game keeping you alive until the end, but he is in the best pitchers park in MLB in Dodger Stadium. There is no line currently but I well imagine Price will be a heavy favorite. The Dodgers are striking out 20.1 percent of the time with a low .289 wOBA and wRC+ of 80 versus LHP. At home their wOBA elevates to .312 but over the last seven days the Dodgers are striking out 27.3 percent of the time while batting .246. Price in his last two starts versus the Angels and Mariners on the road has 11 strikeouts over 15 innings with a 2.40 ERA. He has no DH to face tonight, the weather will be cool in Los Angeles, his K/9 is 9.32, he has a 12.8 percent swinging strike rate, and a 4.30 ERA opposed to a 3.32 xFIP which tells me in a good park he should dominate. Although he is expensive, I will be using him as my numero uno tonight.

Danger Zone

A little BVP here and it is not bad. The current Dodgers roster is a batting .188 (12-for-64) with one HR (Chase Utley), seven RBI, and 22 strikeouts.

Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies (cash & GPP)

This play could be used as a complimentary pitcher on a two-pitcher site in cash games or a GPP play on a one-pitcher site. Jerad Eickhoff is out in beautiful San Diego today facing the crappy Padres who have shown flashes of greatness here and there. He is a -102 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. The San Diego Padres as a team are striking out 23.6 percent of the time with a .303 wOBA and low wRC+ of 86 versus RHP on the season. Eickhoff over his last two starts versus the Braves and Marlins both on the road has nine strikeouts over 12 innings with a 0.75 ERA. Although the Padres have a few nice LHB as of late I am still all in on Eickhoff today.

Danger Zone

We have minimal BVP but as mentioned a few LHB as of late look pretty good for the Padres. No one that scares me off enough to move off of him though.

Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers (GPP)

I do not care tonight that the Boston Red Sox are the best offense in MLB. As a matter of fact, the Boston Red Sox are only striking out 17.6 percent of the time with a whopping .358 wOBA and wRC+ of 121 versus RHP on the season. OUCH! They also mash on the road as well with a .332 wOBA and wRC+ of 107. Here is where it starts to turn in McCarthys favor. The Red Sox over the last seven days are batting .234 striking out 21.5 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 74. When Dodger Stadium was built it was done so to highlight the great SP of players like Johnny Podres and Don Drysdale while trying to neutralize the bats of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, and the other big boppers of the early sixties. They also kept in mind that at the time their number one World Series foe was still the New York Yankees. Game seven in Dodger stadium certainly favored Sandy Koufax over Mickey Mantle or Roger Maris. McCarthy has huge strikeout upside (10.74 K/9) pitching in a great park, and for the price, I am going against the odds and using him in GPPs tonight possibly even pairing him with David Price on two-pitcher sites.

Danger Zone

This is ugly I warn you. The current Red Sox lineup is batting .328 (21-for-64) with two HR (David Ortiz and Aaron Hill), 15 RBI, and seven strikeouts. It scares me big time of course he has surrendered more runs than he has strikeouts in this case. Keep in mind though as near as I can see the last time he faced the Red Sox was in 2013. Otherwise the real danger is pretty much the whole Red Sox lineup because they are quite awesome.

Jon Gray is very intriguing today even at home. Just saying.

PlayerTmHOppIPK/9BB/9HR/9BAASwStr%ERAxFIPWHIPBABIPGB%FB%GB/FBwOBA v LwOBA v R$FD$DK$Aces
Archie BradleyARIRMIL85.18.444.111.16.2648.2%4.754.41.52.30448.2%28.7%1.680.4020.290$6,400$6,400$5,600
Michael FoltynewiczATLRSTL72.17.712.361.62.26310.7%4.64.221.3.28842.6%36.6%1.160.3610.319$6,500$5,700$6,500
Dylan BundyBALRCWS598.541.981.22.26112.6%3.054.091.29.31337.1%42.5%0.870.3070.326$7,100$7,800$6,400
David PriceBOSLLA150.29.321.851.02.27012.8%4.33.321.25.33048.1%28.2%1.710.3300.313$10,100$10,600$7,650
Kyle HendricksCHIROAK125.27.732.290.64.2149.8%2.223.661.06.25655.2%27.6%20.2810.250$9,300$10,900$6,750
Dan StrailyCINRPIT1287.13.451.13.20810.3%3.84.781.14.22435.4%42.6%0.830.3010.284$6,600$9,000$6,300
Carlos CarrascoCLERNYY95.18.222.551.42.21912.5%3.123.61.1.24652.3%31.1%1.680.3180.284$9,700$8,200$7,300
Jon GrayCOLRMIA114.29.422.751.02.22312.9%3.773.671.13.27546.7%32.3%1.440.2890.300$7,300$7,800$5,800
James ShieldsCWSRBAL127.34.463.591.41.2879.3%5.644.993.03.29842.4%35.6%1.190.3490.363$7,200$5,400$6,750
Anibal SanchezDETRNYM100.27.873.841.61.30210.2%6.264.571.63.33942.5%37.0%1.150.3630.386$6,000$6,000$6,400
Joe MusgroveHOURTEX4.116.612.080.00.07116.7%0.001.30.46.16716.7%33.3%0.500.1720.080$6,000$6,800$0
Yordano VenturaKCRTOR119.16.633.771.28.2509.5%4.834.571.38.27151.5%31.1%1.660.3390.308$7,900$6,700$6,250
Brandon McCarthyLARBOS29.110.743.990.61.1589.2%2.763.51.02.21940.6%42.2%0.960.2990.202$6,600$7,900$6,500
Matt ShoemakerLAARSEA125.28.61.861.07.26514.5%4.083.791.26.31440.6%36.9%1.10.2970.339$8,600$8,400$6,650
Adam ConleyMIALCOL121.18.63.410.74.24411.0%3.414.511.35.29640.7%38.1%1.070.3380.304$7,600$5,500$6,650
Jimmy NelsonMILRARI127.26.844.021.06.2608.0%3.744.761.45.28952.1%30.0%1.740.3470.326$6,400$5,800$6,900
Kyle GibsonMINRTB826.482.631.21.28610.2%4.944.291.45.31353.4%23.5%2.270.3640.314$6,200$7,200$5,850
Jacob deGromNYMRDET119.28.81.960.75.23012.0%2.413.311.06.28148.9%29.1%1.680.2460.300$10,300$10,400$7,400
Masahiro TanakaNYYRCLE140.17.181.730.90.24111.5%3.43.741.12.27649.3%27.7%1.780.2750.290$8,700$6,600$7,000
Sean ManaeaOAKLCHI92.17.72.141.36.27112.8%4.684.021.31.30243.9%34.4%1.280.2380.354$6,600$7,000$6,300
Jerad EickhoffPHIRSD1327.632.051.02.25810.0%3.683.981.21.28945.3%33.2%1.370.3330.297$8,000$8,600$6,550
Gerrit ColePITRCIN92.17.512.340.29.2639.2%2.734.041.28.31947.8%27.2%1.760.3290.269$9,500$9,200$7,500
Jarred CosartSDRPHI22.38.17.830.00.1116.7%0.005.973.88.27866.2%9.9%6.710.3110.341$6,100$4,700$5,800
James PaxtonSEALLAA73.18.231.840.74.29112.5%3.933.611.39.35150.4%27.9%1.810.3270.329$7,000$7,900$6,100
Madison BumgarnerSFLWSH155.210.062.20.98.21112.6%2.263.241.03.26641.6%37.8%1.10.2290.277$11,400$12,900$8,400
Adam WainwrightSTLRATL1377.162.170.66.2759.2%4.144.021.29.31747.1%28.6%1.650.3350.300$8,900$8,000$7,100
Matt AndrieseTBRMIN766.751.890.47.22311.0%2.723.871.03.25748.6%34.5%1.410.2500.255$6,000$6,900$5,600
Yu DarvishTEXRHOU38.112.682.821.41.21814.0%3.292.641.12.29142.2%33.3%1.270.3130.276$9,600$13,100$7,500
Marcus StromanTORRKC142.17.212.281.01.2679.6%4.743.531.29.30862.1%17.8%3.490.3440.298$7,700$9,600$7,300
Tanner RoarkWSHRSF1437.492.640.69.2399.5%3.023.851.18.28453.7%28.0%1.920.2620.307$8,700$8,000$6,600

Good luck today.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL:  http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints