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So after today the All-Star break is here. This is an important week for DFS players to re-connect with their families. Some people will no doubt take advantage of whatever other sport happens to be having a contest of some sort just to get the DFS itch out of the way. For me, I am going to sleep a little later, spend a little more time with my wife, and relax and enjoy both the Futures Game and the All-Star Game without the interruptions and temptations to keep checking my phone. We will eat dinner at a normal time instead of 7:15 after lineups lock, and maybe catch a movie. Enjoy this week, spend some time with the family, put the phone down, and just enjoy some baseball. That is, after all, why most of us landed here in the first place. Because we love the sport.
The first game is drawing closer and it is already 7 a.m., without further chatter I bring you todays Pitching Coach Article.
The Real Jerry Colvin weather report
Things appear very similar to yesterday. It is going to be in the high 50’s in Northern California today which is something to take note of in AT&T Park while Southern California is only going to hit the mid-60’s. Temperatures will be generally cool today across the nation with Texas hitting 80 and pretty much the rest of the country minus the Northeast where it will be in the mid-60’s, topping out somewhere in the 70’s. We also have a lot of green over the Northeast but at this time nothing that appears to be any severe baseball threat. Otherwise, the rest of the country looks pretty good rain wise minus Florida where we have indoor baseball. Keep in mind, I am just a guy who loves hamburgers and baseball, not an actual weatherman.
Day Slate
This slate is uglier than more than one woman I took home at 2 a.m. back in my early 20s. Just saying. I honestly believe there is only one cash game option today and pretty much everyone else is a GPP play due to bad matchups, bad ballparks, or horrible recent performances. Please note that the slates on FanDuel separate at the Twins-Rangers game at 3:05 p.m. while DraftKings does so at 4:10 p.m. with the Phillies-Rockies game.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
There is only one pitcher I would use in cash games today and even he does not come without risk. Carlos Carrasco is a -136 favorite at home today facing the New York Yankees in a game with an implied run total of 7.5, the lowest on the slate. The Yankees may only be striking out 18.6 percent of the time but they also have a low .309 wOBA to go with it. They are 28th in MLB in road wOBA at .295 and wRC+ at a low 81. Carrasco as of late has been stellar, over his last two starts versus the Tigers at home and Toronto on the road he has 19 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings with a 1.35 ERA. It stands to reason if he could tame the mighty Tigers, and throw a few Blue Jays in a cage, he certainly should be able to fire some baseballs at Yankees. He is THE only viable cash game play on the early slate on a one pitcher site and your SP1 on a two-pitcher site.
Danger Zone
The current Yankees roster is 15-for-81 with one HR (Carlos Beltran), four RBI, and 20 strikeouts. What you take away from this is simple, Carrasco thus far has struck out Yankees batters at a rate of almost 25 percent.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
Once again we have a Houston pitcher at home. Dallas Keuchel is taking on the Oakland Athletics in Minute Maid Park which is 26th in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -185 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.5 which is right in line with the rest of the slate. Much like Carrasco we have a situation where a SP with a decent strikeout rate (7.88 K/9) is facing a team that does not strikeout a lot. The Athletics are only striking out 17.4 percent of the time versus LHP and also have a semi-dangerous .329 wOBA and wRC+ of 106. On the road the A’s also have a .323 road wOBA but have been cold batting only .233 over the last seven days with a low wRC+ of 78. Keuchel like a lot of the Astros staff as of late has stepped up his game having only allowed two earned runs in three of this last four starts. As a matter of fact, over his last two starts versus the Mariners at home and Angels on the road (who also are strikeout stingy) he has 10 strikeouts over 12 innings with a 3.00 ERA. For the low price on DraftKings he is my No. 1 guy to pair with Carrasco today and a great GPP play on FanDuel.
Danger Zone
The reason Keuchel is a GPP play on a one-pitcher site like FanDuel is simple: the A’s can hit LHP. Right away my DFS brain thinks of Danny Valencia, Marcus Semien, and Khris Davis. All of these guys hit LHP well. The Athletics are batting .293 (44-for-150) with two HR (Danny Valencia (2)), 12 RBI, and 21 strikeouts versus Dallas. As you can see, his past is not great here and neither is his strikeout total. This is one of those plays where you are hoping for six solid innings with four strikeouts and two earned runs (something he did versus an Angels team with similar numbers). On this slate, that more than likely will be enough.
Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
The next two plays are certainly GPP only as we dive deeper into risk. Taking any pitcher in Milwaukee is risky. Now, add in the St. Louis Cardinals as the visiting team and it borders on insanity -- much like Guerra’s numbers which I believe are due to regress. Let’s just hope it is not today.
Guerra is a -114 favorite at home today pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5, which seems real low to me. Honestly, this is what first hooked me. Why so low? Even with Mike Leake going for the Cardinals this seems off. But, the powers that be in Las Vegas have whole teams and I am a guy with two computers in front of him. The Cardinals are striking out 18 percent of the time with a nice .329 wOBA versus RHP on the season. They also mash on the road carrying a .330 wOBA and wRC+ of 104. Once again, why such a low expected run total? Here is my guess: They really love Guerra. Over his last two starts alone he has not allowed an earned run. To be exact he has 14 strikeouts over his last two starts versus the Nationals on the road and Dodgers at home over 15 1/3 innings with zero earned runs. Now understand both the Nationals and Dodgers carry a lot less risk than the Cardinals. This one smells fishy, GPP only.
Danger Zone
In the small sample size, the Cardinals have touched him up batting .333 (8-for-24) with three HR (Matt Holliday who is a non-factor (2) and Matt Adams), three RBI, and six strikeouts. The positive from this would be the six strikeouts over 24 plate appearances while the negative is the fact that Guerra has a 2.94 ERA and 3.81 xFIP. When I see the difference approach a full run difference it raises my eyebrows a bit.
Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
Yup, it has come to this. Tom Koehler. Anytime you have to look to Tom Koehler for a SP in DFS, things are rocky for sure and a lot of runs will be scored that day. Today Koehler is a -159 favorite at home in Marlins park which is 25th in MLB in runs scored so he gets a favorable park shift. This game does have an above average implied run total at 9.0. The Cincinnati Reds although dangerous are striking out 21.9 percent of the time with a .302 wOBA (28th in MLB) and wRC+ of 88 versus RHP. On the road they only have a .301 wOBA and wRC+ of 84, both of which are 26th in MLB. Over the last seven days they are only batting .224 and the wRC+ continues to plummet dropping down to 72. If there was ever a time to use Koehler, this is the matchup. Over his last three starts facing the Mets and Tigers on the road and the Cubs at home he has 11 earned runs over his last 14 innings with a whopping 7.07 ERA. Tell me this won’t scare most people away? But let’s face it, nine of those eleven earned runs were versus the Tigers and Cubs who both are much more dangerous than the Reds. For the price today on DraftKings of $4,700 in a GPP I am all in. On FanDuel, avoid like the plague at $8,000.
Danger Zone
Not a lot to work with but the Reds are batting .077 (1-for-13) with three strikeouts.
Night Slate
I much prefer the night slate today for pitching. We only have a three- and four-game slate depending on what site you are playing on but either way you should have no problem salary wise with pitching tonight.
When I first saw Madison Bumgarner on the slate I was excited, then, I saw he was facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ouch, comes to mind. The Diamondbacks are striking out 20.1 percent of the time with an incredible .365 wOBA and super-duper wRC+ of 123. On the road they actually are playing better and have a .339 wOBA to show it. But he is still Madison Bumgarner. He is also at home. AT&T Park is 19th in runs scored and 30th in HR allowed in MLB this season and he is also the largest favorite of the day at -227. This game also has the lowest expected run total of the day at 7.0. The weather is only going to be in the mid-50’s today in Northern California, which certainly does help baseballs travel out of a park that does not let many baseball travels out of it. At home, Bumgarner has 1.86 ERA and a nice 9.85 K/9 on the season to compliment it. He is elite in pretty much every category and I don’t care who he faces at home, he is the top option.
Danger Zone
Bumgarner has a 2.57 ERA this season versus Arizona with eight strikeouts over seven innings. We also have a fair amount of BVP playing in the same division with D-Backs batting .250 (54-for-216) with five HR (Wellington Castillo (2), Paul Goldschmidt (2), and the other belonging to A.J. Pollock who does not matter), 16 RBI, and 53 strikeouts. At Chase Field I might be a bit shook, but not at home.
Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers
I see no reason not to stay with the cool weather and big ballparks and where better to go than Dodger Stadium? Dodger Stadium is 29th in runs scored this season in MLB and tonight the San Diego Padres are in town. The Padres are striking out a whopping 24.1 percent of the time with a low .292 wOBA and wRC+ of 82 versus RHP. On the road they do hit a bit better sporting a .318 wOBA but I doubt that plays in Dodger Stadium. Maeda over his last two starts has a looked a little dicey (we will touch on this in the danger section) allowing five earned runs over 10 innings to the Brewers on the road and Orioles at home with 11 strikeouts. Keep in mind that both of these teams are far better than the Padres. Or are they? Either way on a small slate like tonight, at his price, he would be the guy I would try to pair with Bumgarner or use as my SP1 if I wanted to fade Madbum. Did I mention he is also a -200 favorite?
Danger Zone
The Padres are batting .216 (8-for-37) with no HR, four RBI, and seven strikeouts. Here is something to think about, the new Padres are looking pretty good. Wil Myers is hitting and they have a bevy of young talent that all seem to be starting to click. This scares me. I also saw a report on Maeda and his terrible 90 MPH fastball. MLB hitters do not fear a 90 MPH fastball. They just don’t. So what the report says is that hitters are just waiting on the soft stuff. It makes sense.
Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies
Did I let you down with Tyler Anderson yesterday? No, I did not. So let’s go back to that well. Once again just because a game is in Coors Field it does not mean it will be a blowout. You have two teams in the Phillies and Rockies who both at times struggle to say the least. This can happen anywhere. It is not going to be hot today and Tyler Chatwood is a -180 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 12.0. I honestly believe the damage will come from the Rockies side. The Phillies are striking out 21.3 percent of the time versus RHP and have a .310 wOBA. Chatwood has a home ERA of 5.10 and a road ERA of 1.30 which certainly tells me he is a stud pitcher in a bad park. In his last home start versus the Padres on Jun. 11th who are similar to the Phillies he allowed three earned runs over 6 2/3 innings while only striking out two. Who would use him tonight? I would, and will in a GPP lineup.
Danger Zone
We have little BVP here but I will say this, if I have to explain the danger in a Coors Field game you need to go back to DFS baseball 101 and find an article called the “Coors Field Effect.” I am sure one exists if one was to look.
Christian Friedrich, San Diego Padres
If you have not paid attention Christian Friedrich is the only pitcher in the Pitching Coach Article today who is on the road. Although I love the Dodgers I hate the fact they suck versus LHP. The Dodgers are striking out 20.1 percent of the time with a .285 wOBA and wRC+ of 77, both of which are 29th in MLB. Friedrich benefits from the same cool weather and great ball park Maeda does tonight and is dirt cheap. He has struggled as of late allowing a whopping nine earned runs over his last 10 innings but he does have 12 strikeouts in that span. He also faced the Diamondbacks at Chase Field and the Orioles at home, both who can hit much better than the Dodgers. If he can keep the Dodgers in check today only allowing a few runs and ringing up some strikeouts this play could be DFS gold. I will be using him tonight for sure.
Danger Zone
The Dodgers are batting .340 (18-for-53) with two HR (Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson who does not matter today), nine RBI, and 12 strikeouts versus Friedrich. Ouch.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | R | MIN | 47.0 | 8.61 | 3.83 | 0.96 | .213 | 9.3% | 3.06 | 4.29 | 1.21 | .258 | 36.8% | 44.0% | 0.84 | 0.316 | 0.272 | $7600 | $7000 | $5900 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | R | TOR | 78.2 | 7.43 | 4.12 | 1.83 | .290 | 9.5% | 6.52 | 4.75 | 1.60 | .312 | 43.8% | 38.4% | 1.14 | 0.368 | 0.389 | $5000 | $4400 | $5900 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | SF | 58.0 | 9.31 | 4.03 | 1.55 | .241 | 9.8% | 4.81 | 4.06 | 1.40 | .277 | 47.2% | 28.6% | 1.65 | 0.402 | 0.283 | $6600 | $7400 | $5900 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | NYY | 69.1 | 8.83 | 2.34 | 1.30 | .219 | 12.5% | 2.47 | 3.19 | 1.05 | .259 | 55.2% | 26.2% | 2.10 | 0.293 | 0.284 | $10300 | $11600 | $6600 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | LAA | 106.1 | 7.88 | 3.13 | 1.18 | .238 | 10.6% | 3.56 | 4.15 | 1.23 | .272 | 43.8% | 34.7% | 1.26 | 0.335 | 0.295 | $8300 | $6000 | $6150 |
| Christian Friedrich | SD | L | LA | 55.0 | 7.86 | 4.09 | 0.98 | .260 | 9.1% | 4.42 | 4.46 | 1.51 | .296 | 50.9% | 29.6% | 1.72 | 0.314 | 0.325 | $6100 | $6900 | $5550 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | OAK | 113.0 | 7.88 | 2.71 | 1.19 | .275 | 10.4% | 5.02 | 3.60 | 1.40 | .321 | 59.8% | 19.5% | 3.06 | 0.286 | 0.355 | $8900 | $8100 | $6550 |
| David Price | BOS | L | TB | 116.1 | 10.05 | 2.01 | 1.24 | .261 | 13.5% | 4.64 | 3.25 | 1.23 | .322 | 45.3% | 30.7% | 1.47 | 0.329 | 0.316 | $10200 | $10000 | $6550 |
| Dillon Gee | KC | R | SEA | 53.1 | 7.76 | 2.70 | 1.86 | .299 | 10.4% | 4.05 | 4.43 | 1.56 | .325 | 44.0% | 35.7% | 1.23 | 0.374 | 0.352 | $6000 | $5900 | $5650 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | NYM | 97.2 | 9.31 | 3.13 | 1.01 | .270 | 10.7% | 4.79 | 3.83 | 1.40 | .325 | 50.4% | 27.5% | 1.83 | 0.275 | 0.341 | $8700 | $7700 | $6450 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | BOS | 99.2 | 8.49 | 2.80 | 1.44 | .247 | 10.3% | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.26 | .283 | 40.6% | 37.1% | 1.09 | 0.275 | 0.351 | $8000 | $6500 | $5950 |
| James Shields | CWS | R | ATL | 67.1 | 7.62 | 3.34 | 1.20 | .272 | 11.3% | 4.28 | 4.24 | 1.43 | .314 | 48.2% | 28.4% | 1.70 | 0.360 | 0.391 | $7900 | $6100 | $6000 |
| John Lackey | CHI | R | PIT | 110.2 | 9.03 | 2.68 | 0.98 | .221 | 12.5% | 3.50 | 3.77 | 1.08 | .260 | 41.5% | 34.5% | 1.20 | 0.300 | 0.277 | $9100 | $10200 | $6600 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | CHI | 98.0 | 6.25 | 2.94 | 1.74 | .294 | 8.1% | 4.87 | 4.33 | 1.53 | .309 | 57.5% | 21.4% | 2.69 | 0.355 | 0.379 | $6600 | $4600 | $5800 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | R | STL | 76.2 | 7.87 | 2.47 | 0.82 | .201 | 11.8% | 2.94 | 3.81 | 1.02 | .236 | 47.1% | 34.1% | 1.38 | 0.268 | 0.262 | $8400 | $9400 | $6250 |
| Kenta Maeda | LA | R | SD | 96.2 | 8.75 | 2.61 | 0.84 | .225 | 12.3% | 3.07 | 3.76 | 1.15 | .278 | 45.5% | 32.0% | 1.42 | 0.283 | 0.277 | $9100 | $9100 | $6750 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | ARI | 120.2 | 9.85 | 2.31 | 0.90 | .207 | 12.4% | 2.09 | 3.33 | 1.02 | .261 | 42.1% | 37.9% | 1.11 | 0.225 | 0.276 | $11400 | $13000 | $7100 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | CLE | 112.1 | 7.05 | 1.60 | 0.72 | .232 | 12.0% | 3.13 | 3.62 | 1.05 | .267 | 52.2% | 25.4% | 2.06 | 0.253 | 0.282 | $9000 | $8000 | $6700 |
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | R | CWS | 42.0 | 7.50 | 1.93 | 2.36 | .272 | 10.1% | 4.29 | 4.36 | 1.31 | .273 | 39.8% | 39.8% | 1.00 | 0.437 | 0.315 | $6100 | $6700 | $5750 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | MIL | 104.0 | 5.72 | 1.38 | 1.21 | .271 | 6.2% | 4.33 | 4.05 | 1.23 | .282 | 54.0% | 25.4% | 2.13 | 0.323 | 0.305 | $6500 | $5400 | $6000 |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | L | KC | 50.1 | 7.87 | 2.50 | 0.18 | .208 | 10.5% | 2.15 | 3.72 | 1.05 | .263 | 60.6% | 19.0% | 3.19 | 0.216 | 0.275 | $7000 | $4000 | $5850 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | DET | 109.2 | 6.40 | 3.12 | 1.64 | .254 | 10.7% | 4.10 | 4.52 | 1.31 | .265 | 45.8% | 33.6% | 1.36 | 0.374 | 0.310 | $7400 | $7900 | $5800 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | L | HOU | 60.0 | 7.35 | 2.85 | 1.50 | .286 | 12.1% | 5.85 | 4.53 | 1.47 | .312 | 40.7% | 34.9% | 1.17 | 0.260 | 0.382 | $6100 | $6600 | $5850 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | WSH | 89.0 | 8.60 | 1.72 | 0.91 | .260 | 10.5% | 3.34 | 3.21 | 1.21 | .315 | 56.9% | 23.8% | 2.39 | 0.296 | 0.298 | $9200 | $8400 | $6800 |
| Tim Lincecum | LAA | R | BAL | 18.0 | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.50 | .367 | 13.4% | 7.50 | 4.73 | 2.11 | .441 | 51.7% | 23.3% | 2.21 | 0.367 | 0.545 | $7100 | $5700 | $5700 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | CIN | 92.0 | 7.14 | 4.30 | 0.78 | .270 | 9.7% | 4.40 | 4.90 | 1.54 | .309 | 47.3% | 28.9% | 1.63 | 0.366 | 0.308 | $8000 | $4700 | $5650 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | L | TEX | 36.1 | 6.19 | 2.48 | 1.73 | .313 | 8.3% | 5.45 | 4.36 | 1.57 | .328 | 52.9% | 25.6% | 2.06 | 0.372 | 0.372 | $6600 | $5200 | $5750 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | PHI | 90.2 | 5.66 | 3.18 | 0.60 | .237 | 8.3% | 3.08 | 4.28 | 1.24 | .265 | 59.6% | 22.5% | 2.65 | 0.258 | 0.325 | $7000 | $6300 | $5800 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | R | COL | 29.1 | 4.60 | 0.92 | 1.53 | .256 | 7.2% | 4.30 | 4.67 | 1.16 | .248 | 40.2% | 34.3% | 1.17 | 0.297 | 0.324 | $5900 | $5100 | $5850 |
As always it’s the weekend so players will be rested although with a week off I do not think they should be. Enjoy the break, see you next weekend. With the sites opting to split their slates differently today I set the spreadsheet up like an all-day slate to make research easier.
Follow me on Twitter: @realjerrycolvin
You can email me: therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com
Or, you can buy some nice sports cards from my EBay store: Jerry’s Gem Mints http://stores.ebay.com/Jerry-s-Gem-Mint-s?_trksid=p2047675.l2563
Good luck today!
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