.jpeg)
.jpeg)
So I found out the other day I am having a girl. That makes five girls and zero boys. Help!
Today’s pitching slate is uglier than that overweight lady in spandex at the bar winking at you at 2 a.m. So with a cold kicking my ass (again) and a ton of stuff to do today before I can rest, I bring you todays Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
This is a weird day. No matter how hard I try I can only come up with six total pitchers that I am willing to put any of my hard earned money on. So today we will have four cash game plays and two GPP plays. I would only play on the all-day slate on DraftKings today due to the fact that the best options to pair with the top SP of the day are on the night slate. If you decide to play the early only slate on DraftKings than you are going to be forced to pay up for two SP or risk catching a very low score. I do like both Tanner Roark and Aaron Nola today if you are playing on the all-day slate on FanDuel. I am not including them in this article because I never recommend on a Saturday or Sunday playing on that slate with the ability to make late swaps absent. Also the contest selection for that slate is horrible. As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games. I give more consideration to FanDuel pricing rather than DraftKings pricing for this section.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Today Jake Arrieta gets a positive park shift pitching at Turner Field facing a Braves team that is absolutely abysmal. Although they are only striking out 19.9 percent of the time they do have an extremely terrible .287 wOBA (tied for 30th with the Padres) and wRC+ of 78 (last in MLB) versus RHP. The biggest problem with Arrieta today is salary. On FanDuel the minute you insert him into your lineup you are left with an average salary of $2,838 per player. This is going to force you to find some value if you use him. On a weekend you can usually punt catcher and also hunt down value at second base and shortstop. Over his last two starts versus the Diamondbacks and Dodgers at home he has 20 strikeouts over 12 innings with a 2.25 ERA. He is a -298 favorite today pitching in a game with an expected run total of seven, has a K/9 of 9.79, keeps the ball on the ground 59.5 percent of the time, and gets my call as the top option today in cash games.
Danger Zone
The Braves have had some moderate success in the past versus Arrieta. A.J. Pierzynski has two HR and Jeff Francour has one HR off of Arrieta but honestly I am not concerned here at all today.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
Look back through my pitching coach articles and I can assure you one thing, this is the first time I have recommended Chris Archer this season. I am not a fan. The thing is, on this slate, in this matchup, I cannot resist. Over his last three games he has started to pick things up. He has 23 strikeouts over his last 20 innings pitched with a 3.60 ERA. In this span he faced the Diamondbacks and Royals on the road and Yankees at home. Today he gets a positive park shift pitching at Tropicana Field that is 29th in runs scored in MLB. He is a -127 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8 facing an Astros team striking out 24.6 percent of the time with a decent .324 wOBA versus RHP. The Astros bats are however a little cold right now batting .245 over the last seven days. Archer has a little bit of a hefty price tag but compared to Arrieta his price is reasonable. In a perfect world, on a two-pitcher site, he would be the guy I would pair with Jake from State Farm. Otherwise, I have a play in the GPP section for you later that I like to pair with either of these guys.
Danger Zone
Archer historically has dominated the Astros batters. The current roster is batting .155 with no HR, one RBI, and 23 strikeouts versus Archer. Boom!
Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers
I am not going to lie. I hate to attack the Giants. They do not strikeout enough for me. But still, this slate is ugly enough to make Kazmir one of the top plays tonight. The Giants are striking out 18.2 percent of the time and have a low .307 wOBA versus LHP. At home the wOBA drops to .300 and over the last seven days the Giants are batting a pathetic .178. Kazmir gets a great park shift pitching in AT&T Park which is 27th in HR allowed. Over his last two starts versus the Braves at home and Cubs on the road (both good pitcher’s parks) he has 12 strikeouts over 11 innings with a 2.45 ERA. He has a 9.44 K/9, keeps the ball on the ground 43.3 percent of the time, and is facing a Giants roster that looks a lot less scary facing LHP without Hunter Pence and gets my call as a top play tonight.
Danger Zone
The current Giants roster is batting .302 (26-for-86) with six HR, 12 RBI, and 14 strikeouts so we do have danger. A few hitters have gone yard off of Kazmir being Brandon Belt (3), Angel Pagan (1), Hunter Pence (1), and Buster Posey (1). On a positive note Kazmir has a 1.42 ERA over two starts at AT&T Park (2014-2015) prior to this season. In his last start this season in the home of Giants he got shelled allowing six earned runs over four innings. Also he has been battling a leg injury but the word is he will start tonight and should be fine.
Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
I had Matt Shoemaker in a ton of seasonal leagues and dropped him. I had him for $1 in a keeper league with my buddy Brian Ambos. Yes, I am kicking myself. The reality is the “Shoe” is on fire right now. Over his last 23 innings he has 25 strikeouts with a 3.13 ERA versus the Yankees on the road and the mighty Tigers at home. He gets a positive park shift at home in Angels Stadium pitching in a game with an expected run total of eight. The Indians are striking out 21.3 percent of the time and have a decent .322 wOBA versus RHP but on the road they are 29th in MLB with a .292 wOBA and wRC+ of 82. Shoemaker has a decent 8.85 K/9, Swinging strike rate of 14.9 percent (second highest on slate), and will be a top option in cash games tonight and the player I would pair with Kazmir on the night slate on two-pitcher sites.
Danger Zone
He has dominated the Indians in the small sample size we have. They are batting .189 with one HR (Lonnie Chisenhall), three RBI, and 13 strikeouts. I do not see anything to scary here.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Both of these plays are viable on a two-pitcher sites in limited fashion for cash games and great GPPs. Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers
Colby Lewis is another first for my article and probably a last. First off, let’s cover the ugly part of this scenario. The Seattle Mariners are only striking out 18.8 percent of the time with a .346 wOBA versus RHP. To be honest, the Mariners are near the top versus righties in MLB. All danger. At home it does not get much better with the Seattle sluggers sporting a .336 wOBA and .252 batting average over the last seven days. So why the hell would I be telling you to play Lewis? Simple, he will be low owned and has been pitching extremely well. Over his last two starts versus the Astros at home and Indians on the road he has a 2.25 ERA with six strikeouts (I know) over 12 innings. He has a 1.41 road ERA pitching in the pitcher friendly Safeco Field tonight. No one will be on Lewis tonight and although he las limited K upside and is a fly ball pitcher I just have a feeling he will be the surprise of the night. With the ability to pair Shoemaker and Kazmir more than price effective on DraftKings tonight I would only use Lewis in a GPPs.
Danger Zone
It is not pretty. The current Mariners roster is batting .284 (46-for-162) with 10 home runs, 25 RBI, and 39 strikeouts. Also RHB are have a .409 wOBA off of Lewis. At Safeco field this season in one start Lewis has a 1.50 ERA over six innings with three strikeouts. I told you this season he has been good.
Dan Straily, Cincinnati Reds
Before we even get into Sraily, let’s talk about the Oakland Athletics. The A’s may only be striking out 17.8 percent of the time but have a miserable .298 wOBA and wRC+ of 88. Anytime you see a team with a wRC+ below 90 you are looking at a viable offense to attack. On the road the Athletics only have a .304 wOBA and are batting a lousy .226 over the last seven. Meanwhile, Straily is slowly under the radar becoming a sneaky play. Although Straily is no Kershaw he does over his last six starts have a 3.16 ERA which includes a Colorado start where he surrendered five runs. Other than that start, he has allowed in his last six games consecutively 2, 0, 1, 3, 5, and 2 earned runs versus the Pirates, Phillies, Mariners, Dodgers, Rockies, and Nationals. All teams better offensively than the Athletics. With a whole slate full of crappy pitching Straily becomes a top dog on the night cap even in the “Great American Smallpark”.
Danger Zone
We have little to work with as far as sample size. He has faced four batters on the current Athletics roster and they are batting .167 (1-for-6) with no HR and two strikeouts. By nights end he could be the guy who pushes you to the top strangely enough.
| Player | Tm | Throws | Opp | Throw | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jake Arrieta | CHI | R | ATL | R | 80 | 9.79 | 2.81 | 0.34 | .180 | 12.2% | 1.8 | 3 | 0.96 | .249 | 59.5% | 21.0% | 0.258 | 0.205 | $12300 | $13500 | $7750 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | R | ARI | R | 74.2 | 13.26 | 2.77 | 0.48 | .207 | 16.5% | 2.29 | 2.42 | 1.06 | .327 | 44.4% | 28.1% | 0.294 | 0.223 | $12000 | $13600 | $7500 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | LA | L | 81 | 7.56 | 1.89 | 1 | .243 | 10.8% | 3.33 | 3.64 | 1.14 | .281 | 49.2% | 28.8% | 0.324 | 0.271 | $10000 | $9500 | $6850 |
| Chris Archer | TB | R | HOU | R | 72.1 | 10.95 | 4.23 | 1.74 | .260 | 12.1% | 4.73 | 3.59 | 1.51 | .323 | 47.5% | 29.5% | 0.323 | 0.365 | $9700 | $10400 | $6250 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | DET | R | 78.1 | 6.78 | 1.72 | 0.69 | .221 | 11.9% | 2.76 | 3.65 | 1.01 | .250 | 53.9% | 22.8% | 0.234 | 0.280 | $9500 | $9000 | $6700 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | R | WSH | R | 78 | 9.81 | 1.38 | 0.81 | .212 | 11.4% | 2.65 | 2.73 | 0.99 | .267 | 56.4% | 21.1% | 0.251 | 0.250 | $9400 | $10600 | $6300 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | R | NYY | R | 79.1 | 9.64 | 2.61 | 1.13 | .215 | 13.5% | 3.97 | 3.61 | 1.07 | .259 | 36.6% | 42.1% | 0.261 | 0.301 | $9200 | $11000 | $6650 |
| Jose Quintana | CWS | L | KC | L | 76.2 | 8.33 | 1.88 | 0.23 | .242 | 9.5% | 2.58 | 3.73 | 1.12 | .312 | 40.4% | 36.2% | 0.207 | 0.296 | $9000 | $10200 | $6450 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | L | STL | R | 61.2 | 8.76 | 5.4 | 1.75 | .270 | 11.3% | 5.25 | 4.45 | 1.64 | .297 | 55.1% | 26.4% | 0.341 | 0.364 | $8900 | $5500 | $6550 |
| Scott Kazmir | LA | L | SF | R | 68.2 | 9.44 | 2.88 | 1.57 | .234 | 11.2% | 4.46 | 3.93 | 1.24 | .271 | 43.3% | 34.8% | 0.301 | 0.323 | $8800 | $9300 | $6000 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | R | PIT | L | 67 | 7.66 | 3.09 | 0.81 | .216 | 10.3% | 3.76 | 3.83 | 1.13 | .253 | 57.3% | 23.8% | 0.321 | 0.209 | $8500 | $8900 | $6450 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | R | LAA | R | 60.1 | 8.51 | 3.13 | 0.90 | .239 | 11.7% | 3.88 | 3.98 | 1.28 | .290 | 50.0% | 29.2% | 0.279 | 0.327 | $8000 | $8700 | $6100 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | CLE | R | 60 | 8.85 | 1.95 | 1.35 | .287 | 14.9% | 5.4 | 3.74 | 1.38 | .332 | 40.6% | 33.7% | 0.272 | 0.298 | $7900 | $8800 | $6650 |
| Tanner Roark | WSH | R | PHI | R | 73 | 8.01 | 3.21 | 0.62 | .236 | 9.2% | 3.21 | 3.82 | 1.25 | .288 | 58.0% | 19.5% | 0.321 | 0.342 | $7900 | $7600 | $6450 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | SD | R | 77.1 | 5.71 | 2.56 | 0.70 | .231 | 8.2% | 2.79 | 4.14 | 1.15 | .258 | 57.9% | 24.3% | 0.253 | 0.315 | $7800 | $8100 | $5800 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | BAL | R | 75.2 | 5.71 | 2.85 | 1.07 | .238 | 9.1% | 3.57 | 4.58 | 1.19 | .257 | 46.5% | 33.2% | 0.243 | 0.321 | $7700 | $6800 | $6000 |
| James Paxton | SEA | L | TEX | R | 9.2 | 15.83 | 1.86 | 2.79 | .333 | 15.7% | 3.72 | 1.83 | 1.76 | .414 | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.354 | 0.393 | $7300 | $7400 | $5750 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | MIN | R | 11.2 | 2.31 | 2.31 | 3.09 | .227 | 6.9% | 5.4 | 5.89 | 1.11 | .162 | 31.7% | 56.1% | 0.327 | 0.277 | $7200 | $7000 | $5800 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | R | SEA | L | 76 | 6.04 | 2.01 | 1.3 | .247 | 8.1% | 3.2 | 4.47 | 1.16 | .262 | 37.5% | 40.9% | 0.000 | 0.409 | $7200 | $7100 | $5700 |
| Danny Duffy | KC | L | CWS | L | 43 | 10.26 | 1.47 | 1.26 | .242 | 17.9% | 3.35 | 3.17 | 1.07 | .303 | 38.7% | 46.8% | 0.329 | 0.365 | $7100 | $6200 | $5900 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | TB | R | 66.2 | 6.35 | 1.62 | 1.49 | .290 | 9.8% | 5 | 4.18 | 1.35 | .315 | 45.6% | 26.7% | 0.216 | 0.326 | $7100 | $5800 | $5500 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | R | OAK | 67.1 | 7.88 | 3.88 | 1.07 | .199 | 11.4% | 3.34 | 4.46 | 1.13 | .222 | 42.1% | 34.8% | 0.280 | 0.290 | $6900 | $7300 | $5650 | |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | R | MIL | R | 36.1 | 6.44 | 3.22 | 0.74 | .263 | 9.6% | 3.22 | 4.67 | 1.38 | .297 | 46.0% | 35.4% | 0.312 | 0.354 | $6500 | $5100 | $5950 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | R | TOR | L | 56 | 6.43 | 2.89 | 1.45 | .282 | 7.6% | 5.14 | 4.67 | 1.41 | .302 | 44.9% | 33.5% | 0.419 | 0.319 | $6300 | $0 | $5600 |
| Erik Johnson | SD | R | COL | R | 11.2 | 8.49 | 4.63 | 3.86 | .304 | 8.2% | 6.94 | 4.56 | 1.71 | .281 | 44.4% | 41.7% | 0.292 | 0.287 | $6100 | $6100 | $6000 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | R | CHI | R | 72.1 | 6.6 | 2.12 | 1.12 | .224 | 9.2% | 3.98 | 4.49 | 1.12 | .245 | 38.8% | 40.7% | 0.285 | 0.652 | $6100 | $4300 | $5250 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | R | BOS | L | 20.2 | 4.79 | 4.79 | 0.87 | .282 | 10.0% | 6.1 | 5.59 | 1.74 | .289 | 60.8% | 21.6% | 0.424 | 0.319 | $5800 | $5200 | $5450 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | NYM | R | 61 | 5.61 | 3.69 | 1.48 | .365 | 7.4% | 6.79 | 5.03 | 1.93 | .380 | 53.0% | 23.5% | 0.384 | 0.461 | $5700 | $4000 | $5600 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | R | MIA | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $4700 | $5600 |
Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
Player News
{{item.text}}
{{analysis.analysis}}