DFS MLB Pitching Coach: June 5, 2016

Whereas yesterday it was a struggle to find pitching today it is plentiful. I spent the evening in the ER with my wife after she fell down 12 stairs. She is ok (but very sore), and the baby is fine, phew. So with bad weather looming around MLB today let’s get this Pitching Coach Article on the move.

Top Cash Game Plays

As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games. I give more consideration to FanDuel pricing rather than DraftKings pricing for this section.

Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers

When you factor in recent performance, pricing, and opponent, Scott Kazmir becomes the top play of the day. He is a -186 favorite tonight at home in the pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium which is 30th in runs scored and 22nd in HR allowed in MLB, so you cannot ask for a better park shift. This game also has a low 7.5 expected run total which is among the lowest of the night. The Atlanta Braves are striking out 22.7 percent of the time with a disgusting .261 wOBA (30th in MLB) and wRC+ of 60 (also 30th in MLB) versus LHP. On the road they are just as horrible coming in dead last in wOBA at .280 and things are certainly not looking any better lately as over the last seven days they are batting .161 with a wRC+ of 21. Yes, that is not a typo, 21. Kazmir however as of late has been absolutely stellar. Over his last two starts versus the terrible Reds that are still way better than the Braves and on the road versus the Cubs he has a 0.75 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 12 innings. The beauty is he also has only allowed five hits and three walks in this time so he will not kill you with petty deductions on DraftKings. He has a 9.47 K/9 and certainly struggles with some of his IPs to go with it. The bottom line is for the price I find him the top option tonight across the industry and the craftiest of players may be able to pair him with one of the studs below on a two-pitcher site. The weather here is also nice and clear.

Danger Zone

Scott Kazmir has been around a long time now and has BVP versus most of the league it seems. He is a streaky pitcher so the BVP is kind of hard to judge. Some of this could have been during a “bad” Kazmir phase which would be completely irrelevant with the way he is performing lately. The current Braves roster is batting .384 (28-for-73) with two HR (both Nick Markakis), eight RBI, and 13 strikeouts. I believe it looks a lot worse than it actually is.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

Jake Arrieta today is at home facing the Diamondbacks in Wrigley Field and the wind is blowing 13 MPH L-R. A lot of people do not realize it but for the most part Wrigley is a pitcher’s park until the weather warms up. The stadium is currently 24th in runs scored and 20th in HR allowed in MLB so as you can see the park shift is certainly favorable, especially on a cool Chicago day like today where the temperatures are going to hit the mid-70’s. Although he is pricey tonight, Arrieta has the highest upside. The Arizona Diamondbacks are striking out 21.6 percent of the time and have a .322 wOBA versus RHP on the season. They are also slightly dangerous on the road with a .329 wOBA but here is where the DFS money comes into play, Jake Arrieta has a K/9 of 9. Over the last seven days Arizona is striking out 30.4 percent of the time, which is 30th in MLB. They also are only batting .209 over this span. Today an ice cold Diamondbacks team is going to a pitcher friendly park facing a buzz saw in the form of Jake Arrieta. Do you see anything good for them here? I do not.  Although by Arrieta standards he has struggled as of late allowing four ER over his last 12 innings with 12 strikeouts, he still has a 1.36 ERA at home this season. How do you not love “Jake from State Farm” today?

Danger Zone

The current Diamondbacks roster is batting .215 (20-for-93) with three HR (the only notable player is Paul Goldschmidt with one), 11 RBI, and 27 strikeouts. Arrieta also has a 3.86 ERA versus Arizona this season.

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

How good has Jose Fernandez been lately? Let me tell you. Over his last five starts he has a 0.79 ERA over 34 innings pitched with three earned runs and 49 strikeouts. That is pretty darn awesome. Today he faces the Mets at home and is a -157 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of seven. The Mets are striking out 23 percent of the time and have a .315 wOBA versus RHP on the season. The wOBA elevates greatly outside of Citi Field to .343 and over the last seven days they are batting .254. Even though it does not seem so as of late, he still gets a positive park shift at home facing a Mets team that I feel will be completely shut down today by Fernandez. He has a 1.80 ERA versus the Mets this season and a 1.64 ERA prior to this season. The bottom line he owns the Mets. Pass on him? No way Jose!

Danger Zone

Besides the Mets ability to put up runs in bunches the BVP is clear. They are batting .239 (11-for-46) off of Fernandez with no HR, three RBI, and 15 strikeouts.

Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).

The line between a GPP pitcher and complimentary pitcher is very thin today. To be honest they could inhabit the same section. But alas, I managed to separate them for your convenience. Keep in mind when selecting these plays I pay more attention to the pricing on DraftKings rather than FanDuel.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

Did you ever think that Matt Harvey would carry a salary on FanDuel and DraftKings of $7,500? It seems almost impossible the way he pitched in his last outing to not take a chance here. But let’s discuss the danger, the Marlins are only striking out 19.3 percent of the time versus RHP but have a subpar wOBA at .317. At home the wOBA drops to .301 and over the last seven days the Marlins are batting a measly .220 with a wRC+ of 62. Harvey in his last start versus the White Sox on the road pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out six. It is said the Mets have fixed his mechanics so that means the slumping Marlins are going to face a surging Harvey. Today for the price, I will take the chance on a two-pitcher site and will have at least one GPP lineup on FanDuel with “The Dark Knight” at the helm.

Danger Zone

Matt Harvey has historically owned the Marlins. They are only hitting .168 lifetime with one HR (Justin Bour) and 26 strikeouts over 101 at-bats.

Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays

Even though this game has a nine run expected point total I believe Vegas is off the mark here. I think we have two decent pitchers facing two offenses that struggle in this game. The Twins are striking out 24.2 percent of the time with a low .301 wOBA versus LHP and have a wRC+ of 86. At home the Twins have a .313 wOBA and have picked things up a little batting .283 over the last seven days. Smyly is a -118 favorite and gets a positive park shift pitching at Target Field today that is 18th in runs scored and 21st in HR allowed in MLB. Although he has absolutely been lit up as of last allowing eight earned runs on the road in Kansas City and five at home to the Marlins giving him an 11.70 ERA over his last two starts, this start has “bounce-back” written all over it. Regardless, he still has 9.55 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, and 1.18 WHIP, and I am willing to take a shot on DraftKings today as a second pitcher.

Danger Zone

Smyly over the last few season has a 2.84 ERA versus the Twins and the BVP looks pretty good to me.

GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.

Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.

Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins

This is by far my favorite GPP play on FanDuel today. Tyler Duffey is only $5,900 facing a Tampa Bay team that is striking out 26.4 percent of the time (first in MLB) and has a low .304 wOBA versus RHP. They hit a little better on the road with a .339 wOBA but are only batting .246 over the last seven. Meanwhile, Duffey has had his own struggles as of late. He has allowed five runs or more in three consecutive starts versus the Blue Jays, Royals, and strikeout stingy Athletics that are impossible to predict. This play is about strikeouts versus runs allowed. He has a great K/9 facing a strikeout prone team, on FanDuel with no subtractions for hits and walks and a scoring system set up for strikeouts even if Duffey allows four runs today he still could drop over 30 fantasy points for peanuts allowing you to absolutely load up on all the big bats you want today. On DraftKings at $7,900 he is a complete fade.

Danger Zone

Well the obvious danger is the regression Duffey has shownfrom start to start. We have little BVP here and traditionally the Rays are better versus LHP than RHP. The bottom line is we have huge blow up potential here but that is what you get for the price. 

Jonathan Gray, Colorado Rockies

Picking on the San Diego Padres has been a little tough as of late in case you have not noticed. All of sudden they are on a roll. Over the last seven days the Padres are batting .300 and have a wRC+ of 124, which by Padres standards is like the 2015 Blue Jays. They are striking out less and scoring more runs. So, you must be wondering why then I am talking up Gray? Simple, the San Diego Padres are still the San Diego Padres. They are striking out 23.5 percent of the time versus RHP (fourth in MLB), are 29th in wOBA at .288, and 28th in wRC+ at 82. At home they struggle just as much with a .300 wOBA. While Tyler Duffey is regressing Jon Gray is showing progression. Over his last eight games he has a 5.76 ERA, he has a 4.70 ERA over his last five games, and it is now down to 3.38 over his last two starts. He gets a positive park shift tonight in San Diego, or at least it used to be that way and his K/9 is 9.73. This play looks like pure gold on DraftKings tonight for $8,100 to me because at that price people will be hesitant to take a shot on Gray with Harvey so cheap. Great chance to get a great outing at a low ownership and late bullet as well. 

Danger Zone

We have little in the way of history here the truth is this play is 100-percent dependent on strikeouts and the Padres going back to being the Padres.

For the record, Sonny Gray is way underpriced on DraftKings today at $7,100 with all the strikeout upside the Astros provide and Matt Wisler is facing my Dodgers tonight in Los Angeles. They both just missed the parameters I set for this article (but is was very close).

Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.

Go Dodgers!

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com