DFS MLB Pitching Coach: May 13

DFS is crazy at times. I play around four lineups per night on FanDuel (Each in a different single entry GPP) and usually two on DraftKings. Each night for the last two weeks I have, for the most part, nailed it on my pitching or hitting, but have been unable to connect with them both. Usually, though, it’s the hitting that kills me, I am much better at sniffing out quality starts than Lorenzo Cain three HR nights.

Each night I find my little green arrows just out of reach of cashing. This tells me that I would have been nailing my cash games if I was playing them, right? I am not so sure. You see, the whole reason I stopped playing cash games is I was finding the last payouts in GPPs were lower in some cases than the smaller dollar amount cash games. I did not track this, or keep numbers, just observed. Why is this happening? Who knows, it is DFS and nothing is a secret play anymore. I never have huge droughts in cash games, just GPPs. Which is why you should invest most of your bankroll in 50/50’s. I just find it boring.

Not a lot of top options today on the slate and we have lots of weather concerns.  So, keep a close eye on the weather. We do have a Coors Field game tonight so as always if you want to have exposure to it you will have to pay up, forcing you to spend down on pitching…which should be easy tonight. With Matt Harvey facing Jon Gray I kind of plan on avoiding the hitters in this one myself, even in Coors Field. If I was to use any? I would probably stray more towards the Mets side. But hey, I am writing a Pitching Coach Article here.

Top Cash Game Plays

Usually we have a few cash game plays to recommend but tonight the player below is in a tier of his own.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (Weather concerns!)

No one likes to take a LHP in Yankee Stadium right? Honestly, if you looked you would probably find a Little League park or two with similar dimensions. This is probably why Yankee Stadium is currently sixth in MLB in runs scored. So the park factor today is not in Chris Sale's favor. Outside of this who is better today?

The strikeouts could be better with the Yankees only doing so 19.7 percent of the time versus LHP but they do only have a .295 wOBA and are 22^nd in MLB in wRC+ at 85. Although at home the Yankees have a .335 wOBA, Sale over his last three seasons has a 2.21 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings in the Bronx. Over his last two starts versus the Twins and mighty Orioles he as only allowed three ER while fanning 15 with five walks. Strikeouts equal gold in DFS and Sale sure can provide them. He is the elite option today on the slate and should be highly owned in cash games.

Danger Zone

The current Yankee roster is batting .218 with two HR, four XBH, and five RBI over 78 AB with 30 strikeouts. Carlos Beltran is 2-for-5with one HR, Chase Headley is 4-for-9 with one HR, and Aaron Hicks is 3-for-8with one XBH and three strikeouts. Basically this tells me the Yankees caught Sale on an off day at some point and none of this scares me more than the weather.

Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).

These players today all fall into what I consider a similar grouping. None of them are of Chris Sale quality and all of them rank very closely. The top two options I would consider more cash game viable and of course these all come with risk and reward.

Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox (Weather concerns!)

How can anything be wrong with Steven pitching so Wright? He is without a doubt right now my favorite pickup this season off the waiver wire besides Rich Hill. My counting stats in a few leagues have shown a noticeable difference since obtaining Wright. Although we do not have a favorable park shift with Fenway Park coming in at fifth in runs scored this season, we do however have a team that strikes out a ton.

The Houston Astros are third in MLB striking out 25.2 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .314 wOBA. On the road their wOBA drops to .306 and they are also ice cold batting .224 over the last seven days. Wright continues to pump out the production striking out 13 batters in his last 15 innings on the road facing the Yankees and White Sox while only allowing three earned runs. He currently has an 8.27 K/9 and gets my call as the next best play after Chris Sale today.

Danger Zone

Not a lot I see here to worry about other than Knuckleball pitchers often scare me. Let’s face it, even some catchers say they have no idea where it’s going at times. Otherwise the Astros are 6-for-30 lifetime with one HR (Jon Singleton) off of Wright. Carlos Correa is 2-for-2 which means little in such a small sample size.

Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics

Although the .331 wOBA and MLB sixth in wRC+ versus LHP may look scary, the Tampa Rays also strikeout 24.4 percent of the time. It gets better, at home they have a pathetic .287 wOBA and over the last seven days are striking out 27.7 percent of the time and batting a measly .222. When you add in a pitcher like Rich Hill who has a current K/9 of 10.99 this could spell fantasy gold. Over his last two starts versus the Orioles and Astros, Hill has only allowed three earned runs while striking out nine batters in 11 2/3 innings. This game has a low expected point total of seven and Hill could end up by night's end being the best option with all the weather concerns. I would have no problem using him in cash games tonight if you do not want to spend up for Sale and he could be combined with Steven Wright on a two-pitcher site.

Danger Zone

Hill up till now has dominated the Tampa Bay Rays. They are 5-for-35 with one RBI and 11 strikeouts off of him. The Rays do have the ability to stack a RHB heavy lineup, which scares me very little because Hill has reverse splits with LHB batting .222 and RHB batting .200. So let them do it.

Nathan Karns, Seattle Mariners

First off, Karns is on the borderline on a two-pitcher site between cash game safe and GPP only tonight. Second, on a one pitcher site I would only use him in a GPP lineup. Tonight he faces the Angels who have been far from heavenly from their fans perspective. Although they are only striking out 17.1 percent of the time versus RHP they also have a low .301 wOBA. They also are not tearing up the base paths batting a low .232 over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Karns over his last two starts versus the Astros and ever unpredictable Athletics who also do not strikeout a lot has 14 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA. Granted, nine of the 14 strikeouts were versus the Astros, Karns still gets my call as the top borderline cash/GPP play of the night pitching in the pitcher friendly park of Safeco field.

Danger Zone

He does have a 1.3 HR/9 which means he is susceptible to the long ball and the BVP shows it. The current Angels roster is 9-for-30 with three HR and six strikeouts with a 1.030 OPS off of Karns. This is of course a very small sample and Karns has been pretty good lately.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles all of a sudden have a pitching staff, kind of.

There is nothing pretty anytime any team has to face the Detroit Tigers. Especially in the hitter friendly Camden Yards. The thing is though, Chris Tillman owns the Tigers. Over 126 AB the Tigers have two HR and nine RBI with 27 strikeouts off of Tillman. Clearly he knows his way around the lineup. The Tigers also are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus RHP with a .334 wOBA (Which certainly is dangerous.). Over the last seven days they are ice cold batting .226 and striking out 28 percent of the time and I cannot think of a worse time to run into Tillman than today. Over his last two starts versus the Yankees and Athletics at home he has 16 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings while only allowing four ER. All the numbers tell me this a great play tonight.

Danger Zone

The Detroit Tigers!

GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.

Of course, any time you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.

Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Nick Tropeano gets a favorable park shift tonight pitching at Safeco field facing a Mariners team that is striking out 20.4 percent of the time with a .324 wOBA versus RHP. At home their wOBA becomes much more manageable at .299 and they are only batting .241 over the last seven days. The thing that lures me to Tropeano over anything else is his K/9 which is elite at 10.23. The problem is over his last 15 2/3 innings even though he has 22 strikeouts, he has allowed 10 earned runs. The worst being five to the Brewers on May 3 in Milwaukee which is far from pitcher friendly. He also does not pitch six innings which can really lower a score if the strikeouts are not there. All this spells upside with a ton of risk which always means it’s a good GPP play.

Danger Zone

Over 41 plate appearances the Mariners have 10 hits, 2 XBH, one HR, and six RBI off of Tropeano with a .244 avg. and eight strikeouts. The LHB of the Mariners are always a concern facing any RHP and could blow him up tonight if he is off in the slightest.

Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers

I was on the radio yesterday stating that I like Jimmy Nelson last night. No one agreed. It happens, and he did ok. Well Junior Guerra as a play tonight has more to do with the team he is facing than his skills. Anytime any RHP takes on the San Diego Padres they automatically in my opinion become a play. Some guys a must play, some guys a GPP play. Like Guerra.

San Diego is second in MLB striking out 26.1 percent, 29th in MLB in wOBA (.283), and 28^th in wRC+ versus RHP. All this equals the Padres being bad versus righties. The problem is Guerra is not much better. Over his last two starts versus the Angels at home and the Reds in Cincinnati he has allowed eight earned runs over 12 innings while striking out nine. Of course both starts in hitter friendly parks like tonight. The Padres only have a .293 wOBA on the road and are batting a low .232 over the last seven days. For the minimum salary Junior Guerra could strike you gold, or famine but either way will certainly free up money to build a lineup with monster bats.

Danger Zone

Really? Bad park. Bad pitcher. Bad offense. Great GPP punt play facing a rookie in lefty Christian Friedrich who I suspect will be unhappy with Ryan Braun tonight.

I hope you enjoyed the special Friday edition of my article. I have a funeral to attend tomorrow for my grandmother so Howard Bender will be doing the Saturday edition. He is the master of which I am a mere Padawan. Good luck tonight!

Go Dodgers!

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com