DFS MLB Hitting Coach: April 4, 2016

Welcome to the first Fantasy Alarm DFS Hitting Coach of the season! My name is Kenneth Le, and I will be taking over as your DFS MLB Hitting Coach for the 2016 season. I obviously have some HUGE shoes to fill considering the outstanding job that Ray Flowers did last season. Nonetheless, I am up for the challenge, and I promise all of you that I will try my very best to break down the best matchups and value plays at every position. My ultimate goal is to help every Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook PRO subscriber become a profitable DFS MLB player.

I definitely want to reintroduce myself because I’m sure there are many of you who are not familiar with my background. I have been a sports fan ever since I can remember. Growing up in Southern California, I have been an Angels fan since the days of Tim Salmon and J.T. Snow, a Rams fan before they moved to St. Louis, a Clippers fan when Loy Vaught was their best player (yes, I hate the Lakers), and a Kings fan since Wayne Gretzky led them to their first Stanley Cup Finals. Ultimately, my passion for sports led me to join my first Fantasy Football league in 1998, when I won my first Championship in a free Yahoo League, thanks to my free agent acquisition of Kurt Warner. I have been playing fantasy sports ever since, and the rest is history. 

While I highly doubt that there are many 29-year-olds out there who can call themselves a 17-year fantasy sports veteran, I am still consistently humbled in the sense that I am always looking to improve myself as a fantasy player. There is a TON of trial and error involved with fantasy sports, and I feel it’s extremely important to not only find better ways to improve my game, but also, make sure I am able to learn from my mistakes.

I have only been playing DFS for three years, and yes, like most players, I was an absolute fish/donkey/sucker when I first started. There is just a different mentality that you have to have to become a successful DFS player, and it all starts with putting in the time and effort to research every player, at every position, on every slate. I eventually dedicated myself to learn everything I could about DFS game theory. I began reading every single strategy article that I could get my hands on, studied the lineup construction of some of the top DFS players in the industry, and through a ton of trial and error, figured out a good approach to attack the DFS game. A good amount of my strategy was outlined in my first Fantasy Alarm article that was published back in September of last season. Playbook PRO members can still access it through by clicking here.

Through the years, I have been able to hone my skills to the point where I am consistently profitable at DFS. While I generally do not play the highest stakes, and tend to play roughly 90% cash games, I have been fortunate enough to take down the Grand Slam once, and snag a few other big scores along the way. I have learned firsthand that the more time and effort you put in, the bigger the edge you’ll be able to create for yourself.

The idea here is that I’m going to be putting in a lot of that work for you here with the DFS MLB Hitting Coach. So let’s get things started!

For the first few weeks, given the lack of “current” data available due to the start of the season, my charts are going to simply include key statistics from the 2015 Regular Season and 2016 Spring Training. I am not going to go overboard with the Spring Training stats because they can lean one direction over another due to a myriad of different factors (e.g. pitcher throwing all fastballs, hitter only trying to drive the ball the other way), but I do believe it’s important to know the players who may be hitting with a little more confidence than others.

PAYING UP

Buster Posey is truly the only “expensive” catcher throughout the industry. He is extremely consistent, and is 6-for-11 in his career against Wily Peralta, who is arguably the worst of today’s Opening Day Starters.

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Welington Castillo is actually an ENORMOUS value on FanDuel at only $2300, but is still at a good value on DraftKings. He has been tearing the cover off of the ball in Spring Training, and hit six homers in just 92 ABs off of left-handed pitching last season.

BIG VALUES

Devin Mesoraco missed the majority of 2015 due to hip surgery, but you can’t forget about his amazing 2014 where he posted a line of .273/.359/.534 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs. He has looked good in limited action this Spring, and is underpriced on all sites. 

PAYING UP

Paul Goldschmidt is the cream of the crop and absolutely destroys lefties. Last season, he posted a line of .364/.462/.620 with eight homers against southpaws.

Jose Abreu is definitely more of a GPP tonight facing Sonny Gray; however, Gray has not looked too great this Spring, posting a 5.60 ERA and allowing three homers in 17.2 innings. On the other hand, Abreu has been phenomenal, and could thrive with the added protection of Todd Frazier hitting behind him.

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Carlos Santana is usually going to be underpriced due to his dreadful batting average, but people tend to forget that he’s a guy who consistently posts amazing OBP numbers. He has never gone a season in the Majors with an OBP less than .351 and has at least 91 walks in each of his five full seasons in the big leagues. Those OBP numbers are even better against left-handed pitching, where he has a .390 lifetime OBP.

BIG VALUES

Byung Ho Park is virtually unplayable on DraftKings outside of a pure dart throw in a GPP, but is a big-time value on FanDuel at just $2600. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs against Major League pitching, but for a guy with back-to-back 50 HR seasons in the Korean league, the upside is definitely there. *BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER IN BALTIMORE*

PAYING UP

Brian Dozier’s power will always keep him in our radar for GPPs. Last season, he was routinely underpriced on FanDuel, and it remains that way today with Dozier priced at only $3100. One of Dozier’s drawbacks is that he strikes out far too often, but he definitely sees the ball well against Tillman considering he has yet to strikeout in nine plate appearances. *BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER IN BALTIMORE*

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Brandon Phillips was virtually written off as a reliable fantasy option in 2015, but he performed better than anyone could have imagined. None of the Reds have much of a history against Hellickson, but Phillips has previously gone 2-for-3 (.667 AVG) with a double and two RBIs against the new Phillies “ace”.

BIG VALUES

Logan Forsythe is another name that tends to be extremely underpriced throughout the industry. While he is much better against lefties, he holds his own against R.A. Dickey, going 6-for-21 (.286 AVG) with 3 RBIs, and is in a great spot as the Rays new leadoff hitter.

PAYING UP

Josh Donaldson loves him some Drew Smyly, going 5-for-8 (.625 AVG) with three extra-base-hits against him in his career.

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Maikel Franco was able to show off his 30-HR power last season in limited action, and was dominant this Spring, hitting nine homers in just 68 ABs. That’s around an 75-to-80 HR pace. Yes, it was Spring Training, but there’s obviously going to be some confidence in that bat.

Anthony Rendon will look to repeat his 2014 campaign while completely forgetting about his 2015 campaign, in which he struggled with injuries. He’ll remain in the two-hole, batting in front of Bryce Harper where he should consistently see good pitches to hit.

BIG VALUES

Justin Turner proved last season that he can be an everyday player in the Major Leagues. With Howie Kendrick on the Disabled List, his playing time will not be in doubt. He’ll face Tyson Ross tonight at Petco Park. Turner has gone 3-for-9 (.333 AVG) with a homer against Ross in his career. Don’t be surprised if new Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts starts showing off his team’s speed. Don Mattingly was ultra conservative on the basepaths, but with Roberts being a speedster throughout his MLB career, that's likely to change in 2016. It may not be Turner tonight, but considering Ross’s inability to hold runners, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers steal multiple bases tonight.

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Troy Tulowitzki is only $3600 on FanDuel and is coming off his first Opening Day in a Blue Jays uniform. He was able to knock a big two-run jack in the 8^th inning to help the Jays beat the Rays. Keep in mind, he’ll be facing a southpaw in Drew Smyly, which bodes well considering he posted a line of .350/.400/.540 against lefties compared to .262/.321/.415 against righties in 2015.

Jean Segura’s future is definitely looking promising again after his sensational Spring. A change in scenery may be all that Segura needed after batting close to .500 in the Cactus League. He’ll finally be an everyday lead off hitter, and is at a great price on FanDuel. Plus, in 2015, his batting average was .35 points better against southpaws.

BIG VALUES

Ketel Marte is almost a must play on Aces at just $3500. Even though his splits last season suggests that he’s better from the left-side of the plate, his minor league numbers say the complete opposite, and Marte has even said in interviews that he feels that he’s a better hitter from the right-side of the plate. 

PAYING UP

Bryce Harper is 10-for-23 (.435 AVG) with three homers and five RBIs vs. Julio Teheran in his career.  There is huge upside with Harper tonight, especially considering the fact that Teheran allowed 27 homeruns in 2015 (14^th most in MLB).

Carlos Gonzalez has owned Zack Greinke throughout this career, going 9-for-25 (.360 AVG) with three homers and five RBIs. He’s definitely more of a GPP play though considering Greinke is still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

REASONABLY PRICED OPTIONS

Ben Revere is never going to be the sexiest name in your DFS lineups, but he quite reliable for cash games given his solid OBP. He gets a HUGE boost from batting leadoff with names like Rendon, Harper, Zimmerman, and Murphy batting behind him.

Jay Bruce is another GPP-friendly player due to the big upside given his consistent power. It may have been an off year for him in 2015, but he was still able to put up 26 homers. He’ll face Jeremy Hellickson who has allowed 21 homers or more in every season of his MLB career where he threw at least 146 innings.

BIG VALUES

Franklin Gutierrez is one of my all-time favorite “L/R splits” plays. Injuries are ALWAYS his downfall, but otherwise, he’d probably be an All-Star if he were consistently healthy, and happened to always face LHP (yeah, I know, it’s a shame). In 2015, he batted .317/.357/.615 with eight homers in just 104 ABs against lefties.

And last but not least, Adam Duvall was able to secure the starting LF job for the Reds after a solid Spring. Considering Scott Schebler would have made sense as a LHH going against the RHP in Jeremy Hellickson, it appears that as long as Duvall holds his own at the plate, he could be looking at a permanent role throughout the season. The power is obviously there considering he has his at least 22 homers in each of his last five seasons in the minors. Best of all, he is dirt cheap throughout the industry, and rostering him can help free up some salary to roster the big boys like Goldschmidt and Harper. 

Be sure to keep an eye on the Fantasy Alarm Daily Lineups page to confirm that your players are starting.

If you guys have any questions, you can always reach me on Twitter @kle18. Good luck!