Just how good is this Yasiel Puig guy? Will Ike Davis Ever figure it out? Ditto for first sacker Eric Hosmer. Maybe Howie Kendrick has figured it out? Will Middlebrooks was supposed to see some time in the minor leagues, but not so fast. And what players have starred, and fallen on their faces, the past 30 days?
BEST PLAYER OF ALL-TIME
Yasiel Puig. My thoughts.
FIRST BASE: One Up, One Down?
The Mets waited as long as they could but they finally had to admit what everyone else had said four weeks ago â Ike Davis is totally lost at the plate. Davis was demoted to Triple-A where he will work on a swing that has led to a .161/.242/.258 slash line over 207 plate appearances. I know that Davis has talent, he went deep 32 times last year with 90 RBIs, but let's face some facts, shall we? Over his last 211 games, dating back to the start of last season, Davis has hit .210 in 705 at-bats. The league average in that time is .260. Davis has worked a .291 OBP off hurlers. The league average is .325. Davis has a .490 SLG. That's below the league average of .411 folks. Gotta tell ya, toss in 207 punchouts in that time, an a 31 percent K-rate in '13, and it's questionable whether or not Davis will have any mixed league value this season. He can safely be dropped in 10/12 team mixed leagues at the moment.
While Davis is working on things in the minors, the Mets will shift Daniel Murphy over to first base. Obviously Murphy's game doesn't play well at first base at all (he's batting a solid .288 but with only five homers and 28 RBIs), but in NL-only leagues it will be a nice boost to his value if he picks up eligibility there (Murphy's a .291 hitter for his career though he's never going to be a power or speed option of note as he had six homers and 10 steals last season). With Murphy at first, the Mets will see if Jordany Valdespin can handle second base defensively. For his career Valdespin has appeared at second 19 times and in the outfield 71 times. Like Murphy, his bat would also appear to be a better fit for second base long-term, but his game will play at any spot in the fantasy game one would think. Jordany has hit only .226 this season and .236 over 142 career games, and that career .697 OPS is terrible, so what am I talking about when I say his game will play? Valdespin has 284 at-bats an in that time he's produced 11 bombs and 14 steals. That's a 20/20 pace over the course of a full season. Just saying.
Eric Hosmer has been terribly disappointing since the start of last season. Hosmer saw his average dip to .232 last year as the former elite prospect also saw his OPS fall from .799 as a rookie to .663 last season. He stole 16 bags to help prop up his fantasy value, but the effort was light years from where the expectations placed his effort to end up. Flash forward to 2013 and it's been... more of the same disappointment. Hosmer has seen his average climb to .276, he's ripped seven hits over his last four games, and his .335 OBP is one point above his rookie mark. He's also found himself promoted to second in the order with the Royals which should, in real world terms, get him a few better pitches to see as well as more plate appearances (over the course of a season each spot in the batting order is worth 15-20 plate appearances extra, i.e. a leadoff man will have 15-20 more plate appearances than a #2 hitter, 30-40 more than a #3 hitter etc.). That's certainly a positive for Hosmer. On the downside though there's still be a total lack of power from the lefty who was predicted to have 20-25 homer power. At this point, that's a pipe dream of immense proportions. As a rookie his fly ball rate of 32 percent was about four points below the league average. Last season that mark dipped to 28 percent. This year it's sickly at 18.4 percent. Moreover, his GB/FB ratio is 3.22. That's the skill set of a #2 hitter, but not a guy who was looked at as a middle of the order threat. Simply put Hosmer must lift the ball better to be of value in a mixed league, but his bat is warming and hitting second in the order could help.
WOW... Howie Kendrick
A career .294 hitter, it's all coming together for Kendrick this season. Not only is he sporting a career best .322 mark in the average category, but he also has a .362 OBP and .471 SLG, two number that would be career bests. He's also on a pace to go 20/15 this season with about 85 RBIs, so to say he's had one hell of a start to the year is an understatement. As I've always said... I wouldn't be shocked if he put it all together and had one monster season.
DIDN'T YOU USED TO BE... Will Middlebrooks
Middlebrooks was supposed to spend some time down on the farm to find his stroke, but the Red Sox decided to activate him from the DL and put him in the lineup Monday in a surprise move. I warned everyone not to buy the hype that had folks expecting Middlebrooks to be a .280-30-100 bat this season. Most didn't listen. After a pathetic 0.19 BB/K mark as a rookie Will has gotten even worse at 0.13. Frankly, that's en embarrassing mark for a big league hitter. Since his BABIP has regressed as well â from .335 last year down to .237 this year â his production has completely caved. Middlebrooks is batting .201 with a .234 OBP, and his 160 game pace this season would lead to a fantasy effort of about .200-30-75-65-0. Wow, fantastic (not the sarcasm). Hello Mark Reynolds without the history. Middlebrooks is worth speculating on in mixed leagues, he seems to be healthy and the Red Sox want him to succeed, but know that a return to last years levels (.288-15-54 in 75 games) is unlikely.
THE LAST 30 DAYS
John Buck is batting .195 with one homer. Honestly, I got a question about someone starting Buck in a one catcher league over the weekend. Seriously? Buck hit .241 with nine homers and 25 RBIs in his first 23 games. In 28 games since he is batting .200 with two homers and 10 RBIs.
J.J. Hardy is batting .334 with seven homers and 17 RBIs. He's on a 150 games of 31 homers, 93 RBIs and a .270 batting average. He's a career .260 hitter so the average is possible, and so are the power numbers though his career bests are 30 and 80 (from 2011).
Adam Lind is batting .411. He's at .340 over 153 at-bats this season folks. The last three years he's hit .237, .251 and .255. Good luck with that Adam.
Starling Marte has hit .206 with a .281 OBP. I tried to warn you. His average is down to .279 and his OBP is at .348. Those are still very solid numbers for a guy who appeared in only 47 games as a rookie last season.
Justin Upton, not BJ, has hit .208. After hitting .298 with 12 homers and 19 RBI in his first 26 games he's hit just .208 with two homers and 10 RBIs over his last 34 games.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT. For more of Ray's analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys' Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone's questions.
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