The Red Sox have a new closer. The Cardinals elite hitting prospect is hurt again. The Rockies have added a former star to their rotation. There is an NL outfielder who is on fire that no one is talking about.
RED SOX PEN UPHEAVALAndrew Bailey has been a fantastic pitcher since he became a big leaguer. In 201 career appearances he owns a 2.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 218 Ks in 212 innings, and has 89 saves. Unfortunately he's often injured, the last time he threw 45 innings in a season was 2010, and he's been faced with a rough run of ineffectiveness of late in his most recent return from injury (over his last six outings Bailey has thrown 4.1 innings, including recording just one out in his last two outings, while has picked up a loss and three blown saves thanks to allowing eight earned runs). Obviously that run of putrid work has resulted in a demotion from 9th inning work.
So who goes into the 9th for the Sox and for how long? Ah yes, two very important questions.
Junichi Tazawa was named the closer the last time Bailey was hurt but he didn't pick up a single save as the Red Sox were reluctant to get a lead that he could work with. On the year he's posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with an impressive 39 punchouts an a mere four walks in 34 innings. Even with that stellar work the Sox seem a bit weary to place Tazawa back into the 9th inning at the moment.
So the Sox new closer is...
Koji Uehara. He's an elite hurler. Yeah, you read that right, he's elite. 'But Ray, if that is true, why hasn't he been a closer before?' Fair question. I place the blame squarely on two issues. (1) He's never been a closer before. I know that sounds oxymoronic to state, but it's true. As advanced as we are in baseball nowadays there is still and old school vein that places far too much importance on the 'been there, done that before' approach. In 189 career outings Uehara has only 15 saves. (2) There is concern about the workload his arm can take, and this is a perfectly valid concern. He's very much like Bailey in that the skills are impressive though his ability to always be on the field isn't a lock. After throwing 66.2 innings in 2009 Uehara dipped to 44, then back up to 65 then back down to 36 last year. But oh those skills...
Uehara has a 2.10 ERA this season. Over his last 134 outings he has a 2.13 ERA.
Uehara has a 12.60 K/9 mark this season, a career best. His career mark is an elite 10.17. It's 11.68 since the start of 2011.
Uehara has walked seven batters this season leading to a 2.10 BB/9 mark. While that's impressive, the truth is that would be a career worst mark. Over the last three years his BB/9 rates have been 1.02, 1.25 and 0.75.
Here's where it gets really exciting if you haven't put it together. For his career Uehara owns a 7.58 K/BB ratio over 241.2 innings.
That 7.58 mark is the best in the history of baseball for any hurler who has thrown 240 or more innings (the next closest mark belongs to
Walter Burke at 6.64 followed by
Sergio Romo at 5.87).
The best ever.
If the Red Sox stick to the plan Uehara, provided he can stay healthy, could be a force in the 9th inning.
To see how some of the industries leading experts are dealing with the Uehara and the Sox messy situation see: Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.13.A CAUTIONARY TALE: OSCAR TAVERASThere is no debate in baseball circles. It would be a major disappointment if
Oscar Taveras didn't make multiple All-Star teams. He's as talented a hitting prospect as there is in the game. He's also been hitting well at Triple-A this season hitting .306 with 32 RBIs in 46 games. So why the headline to this section of the report? Here's why.
Taveras injured his ankle a while back, the dreaded high-ankle sprain variety, and missed three weeks trying to get over the hump. He returned to action, but he suffered a setback on Sunday and is likely to be placed on the DL yet again. It's not a certainty at this point that he will be shelved, but that's certainly the course of action that seems most likely to occur.
For every
Gerrit Cole who succeeds there are guys like Taveras,
Kevin Guasman and
Tyler Skaggs who fail to liftoff. There are way more failures than successes when it comes to rookie performers each year, but for some reason that has yet to resonate with the fantasy universe. The allure of the next
Trout/Harper has caused a fog to settle over the fantasy community. While performances like those are difference making efforts, the truth is that they rarely happen. Rarely. More often than not that rookie who took in the 24th round this season, i.e. Taveras, will end up failing to produce for you. I keep trying to make the point that you're better off drafting guys that will get 500 at-bats, guys who have locked down starting spots, than punching lottery tickets for youngsters. Of course, if people listened to me there likely wouldn't be lottery's or casinos anywhere. Clearly I'm not going to win this battle.
OSWALT IS BACKRoy Oswalt is back in the big leagues, though unfortunately in the fantasy game he's pitching for the Rockies. Still, you might want to give consideration to playing him in road starts this season. Seriously. I know that he had a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP last season so you might be thinking I'm cracked. I really don't think that is the case. Let me build my case.
Last season Oswalt struck out 59 batters in 59 innings. In his first start this season he had 11 punchouts in five innings. You aren't washed up when you strike out 70 batters in 64 innings.
Second, Oswalt walked a mere 11 batters last season. Combine that with his first outing this year and he has 11 walks in 70 innings leading to a BB/9 mark of 1.55. That's another elite mark.
Those two facts alone should have your interest piqued a bit.
Third, Oswalt's GB/FB mark last season was 1.42. For his career we're looking at an arm with a 1.46 mark.
With all of that goodness, how come we are still talking about those ERA and WHIP marks being so high? Bad luck has something to do with it, as well as a few bad pitches of course, but talk of Oswalt being washed up are greatly exaggerated.
Oswalt had a 23.5 percent line drive mark last season, a career worst (20.4 for his career). The mark had been over 20.5 percent only once in the previous six years.
Oswalt had a .378 BABIP that was only .079 points above his career mark. He had never had a mark over .316 in any of his previous 11 seasons
Oswalt had an 18.6 percent HR/F mark last year. For his career that mark is 9.1 percent and over the previous three years the mark never reached double-digits.
I'm not going to blow smoke up your skirt and try to sell you a bill of goods that says that Oswalt will be a mixed league star in 2013, but the fact is that he just might end up being a solid matchup play. For those of you in NL-only leagues hopefully you already did the smart thing and scooped up the formerly elite hurler who seems likely to still own enough stuff to be an effective hurler this season.
I SHOULD BE ON YOUR TEAMI've hit .435 the past two weeks with a .469 OBP and .609 SLG yet no one knows who I am. It's not an empty run either as I've been able to knock in eight runs, to score seven times, and to steal three bags in those 13 games. If you're in an NL-only league you know me of course, but in mixed leagues I could very well still be sitting out there on waivers right now. That's a bit vexing considering that one of my teammates just had a setback with a leg injury he has trying to overcome, and whispers suggest that surgery might be needed to fix that hamstring (sorry to
Angel Pagan owners).
Who am I? I'm
Gregor Blanco of course. Let's review.
Blanco has at least two hits in 3-straight games and in five of seven contests. He swiped 26 bags last season while he owns a career .261 batting average. In fact, if we backtrack to the start of last season we ended up with some pretty solid numbers accrued over 610 at-bats: six homers, 60 RBIs, 81 runs scored and 37 steals. He's a solid 5th outfield option in mixed leagues given his speed, his spot in the Giants daily lineup and the hot streak he's on, even if you haven't noticed.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT. For more of Ray's analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys' Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone's questions.
