It seems like just yesterday that the fantasy baseball season started yet here we are at the All-Star break.  With the first half of the season in the books here are my favorite Buy and Sell candidates heading into the second half of the baseball season.

Buy

Manny Machado, BAL

OK, so maybe Machado won’t be cheap given that aside from his .228 batting average the rest of his production have him in line with some of the top offensive producers in the league as he has scored 38 runs with 18 home runs and 47 RBI.  I think that batting average is due for a major correction in the second half however as he currently has a career low .239 BABIP despite the fact that he has the highest hard contact percentage of his career at 40.2-percent.  Machado also owns a career best 43.2-percent flyball rate and a 16.1-percent HR/FB rate which is above his career mark.  The low BABIP is due to the increased ground ball rate and a really poor 13.9-percent line drive rate.  I expect that as Machado continues to hit the ball hard that he should start to hit more line drives in the second half and get even better batted ball luck which should help his overall stats.  

Matt Carpenter, STL

You wanna talk about a player who has been snake bitten in the first half?  Look no further than the Cardinals Matt Carpenter.  Carpenter is currently hitting .237 with 51 runs, 14 home runs and 42 RBI.  The .237 batting average is 40 points lower than his career mark and that is due to his .256 BABIP which is nearly 70 points below his career number.  There are no other numbers that point to the reason Carpenter is struggling.  He owns an impressive walk rate of 17.5-percent so it’s not his plate discipline. His .213 ISO is in line with his previous two seasons which saw him go over the 20-home run plateau in each of those seasons.  His hard contact rate is a career best 45.1-percent, his flyball rate is at 50.7-percent and his HR/FB rate is just slightly below last year’s mark at 12.5-percent.  Like Machado, I trust a correction in BABIP will be coming in the second half which should lead to a more productive half from Carpenter.

Hanley Ramirez, BOS

Hanley enters the break hitting .261 with 38 runs, 13 home runs and 34 RBI.  Those numbers are far from impressive and the Red Sox offense on it’s own has lacked some punch this season with David Ortiz off enjoying his retirement but fantasy owners should remember that Ramirez had one of the best second halves in baseball last season.  Post All-Star break in 2016 Ramirez hit .284 with 34 runs, 22 home runs, 63 RBI and an OPS of .947.  Hanley is the type of player that many will tell you can turn it on and off when he feels like it and with the Red Sox currently leading the A.L. East it’s possibly Hanley begins to buy into the Red Sox success.  A look into Ramirez’s numbers this season you will see that he is walking more and striking out less than he did last year.  His hard hit rate is up as is his line drive rate and fly ball rate.  His HR/FB rate has dropped to 16-percent after that mark being at 21.1-percent last season and 19.2-percent in his first year with Boston so it’s possible that a home run surge could be heading his way as well.  Ramirez has been dropped in some standard leagues so check the waiver wire as at the very least he is worth stashing.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Tanaka has been a disaster this season but I will continue to champion the cause that he is due for a stat correction at some point this season.  He finishes the first half going 7-8 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP which is certainly UGLY.  His 5.03 FIP is also nothing to write home about but his xFIP is 3.88 and his SIERA 3.86.  Those two numbers more closely resemble his 2016 season which saw him go 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA.  The biggest glaring stat with Tanaka this season is his 22.5-percent HR/FB rate.  This mark is well above his 15.7-percent mark.  The home run ball has killed Tanaka this season as he has already allowed 23 bombs which is just two shy of his career worst mark and we are only half way through the year.  Tanaka’s K/9 is at 9.09 which is his best mark since his rookie season and while his BB/9 is at a career worst 2.38 it’s not THAT bad.  As long as Tanaka can stay healthy I have to believe the HR/FB rate should normalize and a better second half should be on the way for Tanaka.

SELL

Jason Vargas, KC

Yup, Vargas was in the Sell section in last week’s Stock Watch article which you can find here. I’ll wait while you check it out…….OK so you read that, now let's check the box score from Vargas’ last start shall we? Vargas allowed six earned runs on eight hits while walking one and striking out four.  He also allowed three home runs in this contest.  Vargas has allowed 11 home runs in 17 starts this season.  10 of those 11 home runs have come in the last 10 games.  The a stat correction is heading his way and those who own him should still look to sell while they can as I believe he is in for a rough second half.

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS

I have been telling you to sell high on Zimmerman for most of this first half and while he has continued to hit well above my expectations I figure why not start the second half with my reasons for why you should still be trying to sell high on this man.  First off, Zimmerman’s best season came back in 2009 which saw him hit .292 with 110 runs, 33 home runs and 106 RBI.  Quite the impressive year but even during that season his sabermetric numbers fall short of what Zimmerman has put up through the first half of 2017.  Zimmerman owns a .359 BABIP and .266 ISO which are career best marks.  His hard contact rate is a career best 40.6-percent and his HR/FB rate is at a career best 25-percent. In his 2009 season Zimmerman had a hard contact rate of 35.8-percent and a HR/FB rate of 15.9-percent. That season his fly ball percentage was at 41.6-percent while this season he is only hitting fly balls at a 31.8-percent mark. I trust a correction is on it’s way in the second half which will see fewer home runs hit and a lower BABIP which will impact Zimmerman’s overall production.

Corey Dickerson, TB

Dickerson has had a very nice first half and will enter the All-Star break hitting .312 with 60 runs, 17 home runs and 42 RBI.  The power numbers should not be much of a shock to fantasy owners as the Rays figured Dickerson would hit somewhere between 25-30 home runs for them when he was acquired from the Rockies but the .312 batting average is just not something that he will be able to maintain throughout the second half of the season.  Dickerson has had solid batting averages in the past but those numbers were aided by the friendly confines of Coors field.  In fact Dickerson really struggled away from Coors field during his time with the Rockies, boasting a road batting average no greater than .257 in any of his three seasons.  With the Rays last year Dickerson had a .273 road batting average while hitting just .219 at home.  This season Dickerson is hitting .329 on the road and .294 at home.  His BABIP is currently sitting at .361 which is a mark similar to his Coors field days.  The fact is Tropicana Field is not Coors Field.  The Trop is typically considered more of a pitcher's ballpark than a hitters ballpark and that was seemingly on display last season with Dickerson.  He is getting much better than normal batted ball luck this season when at home and that is a number that should regress and lead to lower production in the second half.