2017 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleeper: Devon Travis

Player: Devon Travis

Team: Toronto Blue Jays

Position:  Second Base

Current ADP: 227

Positional Rank: 20

In 2014 Devon Travis was the No.1 prospect in the Tigers organization according to Baseball America and was coming off a season where he hit .298 with 68 runs, 10 home runs, 52 RBI and 16 stolen bases over 100 games for Double-A Erie.  However, the Tigers decided to trade Travis to the Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Anthony Gose.  With the Blue Jays we have seen injuries limit Travis to just 163 games over the last two years. 

While the durability is certainly an issue, it is the production when Travis is on the field and in the lineup that is worth taking note of.  Over those 163 games Travis is hitting .301 with 92 runs, 19 home runs, 85 RBI, seven stolen bases and an OPS of .811.  Last season there were only five qualifying second basemen to hit for a .300 average and have an OPS over .800 and while I understand it’s not entirely a fair comparison, the sample size is around what most full-time MLB regulars do see in a given season.

So what can we expect from Travis in 2017?

Entering this season Travis is expected to be the Blue Jays leadoff hitter.  In 2016 Travis spent 44 games at the top of the Toronto lineup.

Over those 44 games Travis hit .309 with 22 runs, five home runs, 19 RBI and one stolen base.  The Blue Jays are consistently among the league leaders in runs scored and while the team did lose Edwin Encarnacion this offseason they replaced him with Kendrys Morales who has averaged 26 home runs and 98 RBI over the last two seasons with the Royals.  With a full season at the top of the Blue Jays lineup I think you could be looking at a player who approaches 90+ runs scored.  Given that Travis hit eight home runs over 62 games in 2015 and 11 home runs over 101 games in 2016 it is a pretty safe assumption that Travis will reach the double-digit home run plateau with a ceiling of 20 home runs likely his maximum potential.  There could be some average regression with Travis this year as he owned a .358 BABIP last year which indicates some good fortune however he has always maintained a relatively high BABIP during his minor-league days as well so while he may not hit .300 I think it is safe to assume he can stay around .280 if that BABIP drops somewhere around the league average.

While those are my projections, as we have in this Deep Sleeper Series, let’s once again take a look at what FanGraphs has projected for Devon Travis in 2017.

The first thing to notice right away is the fact that FanGraphs project Travis to play an average of 116 games.  Again, there is no hiding the fact that injuries have hindered Travis since entering the league but that is what makes him such a great value late in drafts.  Currently being drafted 227^th overall, Travis is being taken around the 19^th round in most standard leagues.  Over those 116 games Travis is projected to hit .282 with 67 runs, 14 home runs, 57 RBI and six stolen bases.  So we are looking at a second basemen that is going to hit a home run total in the teens and swipe a handful of bases while owning a respectable batting average.  If you breakdown Travis’ average projections to a per/game number and then multiply them based off of him playing 150 games you get a player scoring 87 runs with 18 home runs, 74 RBI and eight stolen bases over 600 at bats.  To me, .282 with 87 runs, 18 home runs, 74 RBI and eight stolen bases does not sound like a player that should be going in the 19^th round of fantasy drafts and while there is no such thing as a perfect comparison those numbers are similar to that of Ben Zobrist who is being taken nearly 6-to-7 rounds earlier.  There is no risk with taking Travis this late in drafts and in my opinion he is somebody worth reaching for a few rounds earlier given his upside should he stay healthy.