Byron Buxton, Outfielder, Minnesota Twins

Age: 22

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 190 lbs.

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

2015 Minor League Stats (AA  & AAA): 327 PA, .305/.367/.500, 7 HR, 55 R, 22 SB

2015 Major League Stats: 138 PA, .209/.250/.326, 2 HR, 16 R, 2 SB

To say it has been a rough couple of years for Twins’ world-class prospect, Byron Buxton, would be an understatement. Despite the fact that he’s been a Baseball America Top 100 Prospect for three straight seasons, Buxton hasn’t been able to break through the glass ceiling, mostly because of injury. His pedigree is still sky high and he’s likely to roam center field for the Twins to start the 2016 season and most certainly into the future.

Buxton has the type of skillset that fantasy owners salivate over. He hits for average, has great speed, and once his body fills out, he could be good for 20-25 home runs per year. Yes, Buxton is the coveted five-tool player. Before he was derailed by injury over the last few seasons, there were rumblings that Buxton could burst onto the scene in a manner much like Mike Trout. It’s worth noting that Trout hit .220 with five home runs during his first cup of big league coffee as a 19-year-old. He didn’t have his breakout year until the following season. Buxton’s 2015 numbers—his first cup of coffee—were quite similar (see above).

In 2013, Buxton split time between Single-A and High-A. His speed was evident not only by the 55 bases that he stole, but also by the 19 triples he legged out. This is the type of production that often goes overlooked, but becomes extremely valuable especially where points leagues are concerned. Most of Buxton’s damage will come with his wheels and he has the type of speed that will allow him to challenge for the stolen base crown most seasons.

You aren’t able to steal bases if you can’t get on base, but that is another area where Buxton has excelled in the minors. He has yet to post an elite walk rate, but did manage a 13.7 percent clip at Single-A in 2013. As he’s progressed through the minor leagues, that number has dipped, but that can be attributed to pressing because of his constant nagging injuries. What we know is that his pedigree is extremely high and he has shown flashes of excellent plate discipline in the past. While the future is unpredictable, it gives us a spot to rest our laurels.

Speaking of injuries, that is the one glaring negative surrounding Buxton. A wrist injury left Buxton’s stock somewhat decimated near the end of last season, leaving him unable to get regular reps in. In addition to his wrist, Buxton has also dealt with a broken finger and a sprained thumb. The good news here is that most of these injuries seem to be of the freak variety. He isn’t dealing with a reoccurring knee injury or continual hamstring pulls. The bad news is that most of Buxton’s injuries are taking place in his hands, which slow down his hitting progression. Great health would be the best medicine for Buxton in 2016.

In the coming years, fantasy owners should expect plenty of speed, a solid average, a ton of line drives, and gap power. Over time some of the doubles and triples that Buxton produces will likely turn into home runs. The jury is currently out as to whether or not Buxton will be a perennial 20 home run player, but even if he’s not, he is going to produce plenty of runs with his elite legs.

In redraft leagues, Buxton is certainly worth a pick as a fifth outfielder. His upside is immense and he could finish the season with OF3 type numbers. A word of wisdom: if Buxton starts slow, don’t bail immediately. It may take several weeks before he finds his groove, but once he does, the stolen bases, doubles, and runs should multiply quickly. 

Dynasty owners should heed similar advice. Buxton’s stock is at the lowest point it has been in three years, mainly due to injury. Selling Buxton now would be selling him—and your fantasy team—short. He’s a game-changing fantasy player that desperately needs a healthy season. The 2016 campaign should prove whether Buxton can take a huge leap or whether he was over-hyped to begin with—it would be shrewd to bank on the former.