2016 MLB Player Profile: Nate Karns

Nate Karns threw more than 620 innings in the minors and the righty struck out 684 batters showing a big-time strikeout arm. Unfortunately, Karns also walked 3.8 batters per nine, a full batter above the big league average, and that tendency to be wild, and to strike out batters, has helped to limit his innings at times. Can Karns, who faces competition for a starting spot with the Mariners this season, be the guy this season, the one that helps many a fantasy squad given his low level cost on draft day?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

First off, we’re talking a limited workload in that Karns has only thrown 171 innings at the big league level. Therefore, drawing meaningful conclusions can be challenging.

Here is what we know from his profile.

1 – Karns strikes batter out. As a minor leaguer he struck out more than a batter per inning. As a big leaguer he’s at 169 in 171 innings. Expect a strikeout an inning mark from Karns.

2 – Karns has issues with throwing strikes leading to walks. To this point his big league BB/9 rate is 3.5. His minor league mark is 3.8 batters per nine. He’s going to walk more batters than the league average which is about 2.9. This isn’t going to help him to go deep into games, throwing so many pitches, and it could be an issue for his WHIP mark as well.

3 – Karns owns a 21.9 percent line drive rate. Given that the league average mark is 20 percent it’s a bit higher than one would expect with all the hit and miss stuff he owns. Even so, his .280 BABIP mark isn’t elevated, in fact, it’s a notch below the league average.

4 – Karns owns a 1.13 GB/FB ratio which is pretty much a dead-on match for the league average.

5 – Karns allows a 36.7 percent fly ball rate that is about two percentage points above the league average. Given that the mark is far from exorbitant, it’s very surprising to see that his HR/9 mark to this point of his career is 1.42. A lot of that has to do with the 20.6 percent HR/FB ratio he has on his fastball. That’s twice the league average and well above the 15.3 percent mark he owns for his career. When he’s making mistakes with the heater he’s getting hammered.

6 – Karns owns a 4.00 ERA versus the league average of 3.88. Check out his secondary ERA numbers. They suggest that he’s a league average play in this category: 3.90 SIERA and 3.94 xFIP.

At least his changeup is improving.

DOES HE WEAR DOWN?

The belief amongst the Rays seemed to be that Karns wore down earlier than others which resulted in him being pulled from starts a bit earlier than others. Karns made 26 starts last season and didn’t hit 150-innings pitched finishing at 147. The result was about 5.7 innings a start. Let’s take a look, start by start.

Out of 26 starts Karns never threw more than seven innings.

Out of 26 starts Karns threw exactly seven innings three times.

That’s 3-of-26 starts lasting seven innings. That ain’t good.

Out of 26 starts Karns threw six innings eight other times (that number goes to 11 if we add in the three starts of seven innings).

Out of 26 starts Karns made in 2015 he failed to last six innings 16 times.

Another way…

In 62 percent of the starts that Karns made last season he failed to last six innings. That’s just awful.

Karns threw 100-pitches in three of his first four starts last season. He didn’t hit 100-pitches in any of his last nine outings. In fact, he recorded 100 pitches in just nine of 26 starts, roughly one third. Moreover, he averaged 91.4 pitches a start. The Rays didn’t trust him to go deep. Does the data support that? Here are his career numbers per pitch thrown in the big leagues.

The worst that Karns is right at the start of the game. He then settles in and crushes it on pitches 16 to 75. Then things start to get dicey. Karns is brutal on pitches 76 to 90, but then look what happens… things normalize on pitches 91-120. I can’t say I totally buy into the theory that he wears down late and needs to be pulled from games.

THE MARINERS ROTATION

There’s a debate about whether or not, skills be damned, that Karns will be in the rotation of the Mariners to start the season.

Here’s how it looks now.

1 Felix Hernandez

2 Hisashi Iwakuma

3 Taijuan Walker

4 Wade Miley

5 Karns / James Paxton

Iwakuma has a penchant for missing time, and Paxton could be an extra on the Walking Dead and not need any makeup. Still, it’s tough to be fully in the corner of Karns when you don’t know if he’s even going to be starting. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Karns has a nice strikeout arm. The rest of his game though suggests league average stuff. Given his uncertain rotation spot with his new club it’s very difficult to envision making Karns a part of your foundation on draft day.

10-team Mixed: Karns isn’t draftable in this setup. You cannot be rostering players in a league that’s this shallow that may not even start the year in the starting rotation.

12-team Mixed: I would lean on the 10-team comment here as well.

15-team Mixed: You can take a shot in this format, but truth be told, he’s probably best left on waivers on your “watchlist” until we learn for certain what his role is. Even if starting, it’s not at all certain that he won’t be anything other than a C.J. Wilson type, though there are obviously uses for that type of performer.

AL-Only: Folks will likely be scared away by the fact that he walks a lot of batters, allows a lot of homers and that he’s uncertain to make 25+ starts this season. It would be wise to use those concerns to purchase Karns on the cheap. He’s got a good arm, just make sure you don’t pay full price for it.

To see where Karns ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).