2016 MLB Player Profile: Logan Forsythe

Logan Forsythe began last season as a 28 year old with no success at the big league level. None. He was barely being drafted in AL-only leagues. He then went out and appeared in 153 games for the Rays offering a solid across-the-board production that helped people win leagues (that’s what happens when a waiver-wire gem turns out to be a perfectly cut diamond). What does the now 29 year old have to offer, skills wise, that should lead you to believe that he would be able to repeat or improve upon the levels he flashed last season?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

*11-14: The average numbers over 162 games from the 2011-14 seasons.

As you can tell, Forsythe’s game took a huge leap last season. Was that merely because he racked up at least 355 plate appearances in a season for the first time, or if there reason to hope/believe things just clicked last season?

THE APPROACH

Forsythe was a .235 hitter coming into last season before he hit .281 for the Rays. Why the growth?

Forsythe owns a 22.8 percent line drive rate for his career. He’s failed to reach that mark the last two seasons including 2015 when the rate was 19.8 percent. He certainly didn’t hit more line drives.

Forsythe posted a .323 BABIP mark. Here’s where some of the success obviously came from. In 2013-14 Forsythe had a BABIP in the .260’s and heading into the 2015 season the mark was .281. Highly likely we see a regression in 2016.

Forsythe posted a 39.1 percent pull rate in ‘15. His career mark is 39 percent. In fact, his 2015 effort for pulling balls, hitting them up the middle, and to the opposite field were all within half a point of his career marks. Nothing changed.

Forsythe posted an 8.9 percent walk rate. That’s the best of his career though it’s not out of control given the 7.7 percent mark he entered the season with.

Forsythe posted an 18.0 percent K-rate. That was slightly below his 19.6 percent career rate. Not much different though.

Forsythe did improve against righties. Last season his slash line included a .273 batting average and .353 OBP. Those numbers blow past his career .237 and .309 marks. Other than an improvement against righties, this was pretty much the same old boring skill set we have been used to seeing.

THE POWER

Forsythe hit 18 home runs from 2012-14.
Forsythe hit 17 homers in 2015.

Massive growth?

Well…

Forsythe hit a homer every 49.2 at-bats from 2012-14.
Forsythe hit a homer every 31.8 at-bats in 2015.

Forsythe posted a career-high 40.6 percent fly ball rate. However, the mark was 39.9 percent in 2014 so he didn’t really start lifting the ball more.

Forsythe posted a 9.7 percent HR/FB ratio last year. That’s better than his career rate of 7.8, but it’s well within the realm of the expected and not something that I would attribute to real “growth.”

As noted above, Forsythe really didn’t pull the ball any differently than he had before missing his career pull rate by a mere tenth of a percent.

Not much really changed to be honest, at least when it comes to hitting the big fly.

The real growth was in his double count. From 2012-14 Forsythe hit a total of 31 doubles. Last season he bettered that mark with 33 – in 296 fewer at-bats mind you. That helped Forsythe, to post an Isolated Power mark of .163 last season after 3-straight years between .106 and .118 each year from 2012-14. He drove the ball better in 2015, but it was into the gaps and not into the seats.

THE RUN PRODUCTION

As we will see below, Forsythe spent the overwhelming majority of his 2015 season hitting 4^th or 5^th for the Rays. How is it that he racked up 615 plate appearances and managed a mere 68 RBI? Blame his teammates for not getting on base if you would like, but he didn’t hit at all with RISP and that was the real issue. Last year he wasn’t very good at it – at all. Last season, with runners in scoring position, Logan hit .227 with a .291 SLG and one homer over 172 plate appearances. That’s terrible. He simply didn’t not come through when the ducks were on the pond. Unfortunately for Forsythe, he never seems to come through as his effort last season was a near match for his career marks with RISP of a .218 batting average and .292 SLG.

Forsythe scored 69 times despite posting a solid .359 OBP. Depending on where in the order he hits, more below, that number could increase if he once again gets on base at a strong rate. Keep in mind though that before last season Forsythe was the owner of a career OBP of .303. The truth is the only reason his OBP went up last season was because his batting average went up. He really didn’t show skills growth.

THE SPEED

Logan has never stolen 10 bases in a big league season (his career best effort last season was nine steals). Forsythe did steal 17 bases back in 2010 while appearing in 107 games at Double-A, but he hasn’t flashed that level of production at any point in his big league career.

THE FLEXIBILITY

Forsythe brings many gloves to the park on a daily basis. Here is what you need to know.

Forsythe appeared at first base 26 times last season (15 starts).

Forsythe appeared at second base 123 times last season (123 starts).

Forsythe appeared at third base nine times last season (four starts).

Obviously Forsythe should qualify at first and second base in all formats.

THE BATTING ORDER

According to the Tampa Tribune, it sounds like Forsythe might end up batting leadoff for the club this season. “My only input was I would like to get in there during spring training,” Forsythe said. “If that’s how (manager Kevin Cash) wants to write the lineup out, I’d like to get some at-bats to get a feel and just try to prepare myself.” Manger Cash also offered the following names as options to bat leadoff for the Rays: Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller and Brandon Guyer. That’s a pretty substantial list of options for Cash to turn to. For what it’s worth, Logan hit leadoff just once last year in 153 outings as he spent the majority of last season hitting cleanup (55 games) or fifth (68 games). Is a guy who hit cleanup or fifth 123 times last season really going to bat leadoff this season?

Have you picked up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide yet? The Guide includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Forsythe was much better last season than he had ever been. At the same time, there seems to have been a bit of luck involved, which when mixed with his first shot at full-time playing time, led to an explosion in his overall production. Could he repeat last season? He could. I don’t see signs pointing to any growth though, and given the totality of everything it would seem prudent to be curious as to the efficacy of him repeating what he offered last season. In fact, things could go horribly wrong so be cautious with the love.

10-team Mixed: Not interested. If you want to wait and have him be your middle infield option it’s fine, but it’s certainly not a growth position to take.

12-team Mixed: Same as in the 10-team league. Given his age and lack of elite skills, Logan is more of a bench option that you roster in order to turn to him when injury strikes your team, than he’s someone you should be counting on. A bench round option at best.

15-team Mixed: There are so many upside options at second base why would you settle for Forsythe who not only has bust as a potential outcome but regression as a likely one? His flexibility is a nice bonus, but I don’t know how bad your team would have to be for you to turn to Logan as your first baseman. Things would have gone horribly wrong. A place holder.

AL-Only: The positional flexibility is big time important in this format (it’s worth a little extra for sure). Forsythe needs to play daily to have value, and it certainly seems like that will occur. Even if he steps back just a bit, his spot in the lineup would equate to a solid effort in 2016 as long as you don’t stupidly reach on draft day.

To see where Forsythe ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).