2016 MLB Fantasy: ADP Risers and Fallers

Well, it’s Sunday, so it’s time to take a look at some risers and fallers. Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army is in full force and he continues to do great work compiling all of the data. If you want to join a mock draft, send Howard an email at mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com. NFBC also compiles a list of average draft positions for players, which can be found on their website.

The newest data from the Mock Draft Army reveals some interesting information. Yoenis Cespedes had the largest increase, which is rather surprising if you ask me. The injury to Jhonny Peralta and the decision on Aroldis Chapman had a large impact on the fluctuation of their average draft positions. These numbers give you a rough idea as to where players have been going lately, but keep in mind that these aren’t governing principles by which you must abide.

Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

Yoenis Cespedes, OF NYM (+42.3%) — Cespedes gets the belt for being this week’s top riser, in terms of his trend percentage. His ADP jumped 17 picks, a big deal for a guy going within the first six rounds of drafts. Two weeks ago, based on his ADP, you could nab Cespedes late in the fifth round of a 12-team league. However, he will cost you an early fourth-rounder now. That’s a huge jump for a player who is coming off an abnormally good season for his standards. Don’t get me wrong, Cespedes had a great season last year, hitting .291 with 35 home runs and 105 RBI. Beware of regression for Cespedes this season. Other than his rookie year in 2012, where he hit .292, Cespedes’ highest batting average in a full season was .260. His previous career high in home runs was 26, back in 2013. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .323 last season, 30 points higher than 2014 (.293) and 49 points higher than 2013 (.274). His isolated power last season was .251, almost 40 points higher than his previous career high. He is going to have a decent year in New York in 2016, but at the given price, I’d feel much safer going a different direction than Cespedes. He has regression written all over him.

Jake McGee, RP COL (+8.5%) — McGee was traded to Colorado this offseason and there is no doubt he will begin the year as the team’s closer. Every rose has its thorn, right? Well, McGee finally has the closing duties all to himself, but his location is far from lucrative. Not only are the Rockies going to be bad in 2016, giving him less opportunities, but Coors Field is absolutely brutal for pitchers. The nice thing about McGee is you can get him much later in drafts, but his risk is high, because he is the closer for the Colorado Rockies. He’ll be able to maintain a quality strikeout rate (11.1 K/9 for his career), but expect those home run numbers to creep up. He’s only served up five round trippers over the last two season, but Coors Field is a different breed. Consider McGee a low-end RP2 in 2016.

Kendrys Morales, DH KC (+8.1%) — Let’s face it, Morales was absolutely abysmal in 2014. However, 2015 was a great bounce back season for the veteran DH, hitting .290 with 22 bombs and 106 RBI. There’s nothing suggesting that he can’t put up a similar stat line, but Morales will be turning 33 this June. Morales is the team’s primary designated hitter, but he did play first base nine times last season. He’s only going to play first base during interleague play and the fact that he will DH almost all the time bodes well for keeping the aging veteran healthy. Along with that, he only has eligibility at the DH spot, so your lineup flexibility is a bit battered when drafting Morales. There’s a notable discrepancy between the NFBC data and the Mock Draft Army data. In a standard 12-team league, according to NFBC he is going in the 14^th round, but he’s been routinely drafted right around the 22^nd in the Mock Draft Army. I like him closer to the 22^nd round, but don’t be surprised in your league if someone nabs him in the late-middle rounds.

Ian Desmond, SS TEX (+7.6%) – It was a rough year in 2015 for Desmond, but 2016 should be much better. He is with a new team and perhaps a new defensive position will be a boost to his offensive performance in 2016. His career BABIP is a .322, but that number dropped to just .307 in 2015. By his standards, he was a bit unlucky, so if that number can get back up to his career average, he should fare much better in 2016. He is going to be an everyday player in the Texas outfield this season, giving him a great chance to notch his fourth 20/20 season as a professional. Take a look at his spring training numbers this far; .381 with one home run, five runs scored, two RBI and one stolen base in 21 at-bats. Things are on the up and up for Desmond in Texas, so fantasy owners should be excited about Desmond in 2016. A 20/20 threat with shortstop eligibility in the 9^th or 10^th round of a 12-team league? Sign me up.

Fallers

Jhonny Peralta, SS STL (-9.5%) — Peralta’s recent drop is easy to explain. Simply put, a thumb injury is going to cost him the first half of the 2016 season. Boy, I bet the Cardinals wish Ian Desmond was still available. Peralta hit .275 last season, which was uplifting since the veteran hit just .263 in 2014. Peralta is a reliable source of homers and RBI, especially out of the shortstop position. This thumb injury will take away the first half of his season, and thumb injuries can really sap some power, even when the player does return. Peralta could be hard-pressed to reach double-digit homers this season, but if he can come back ready to go, he could be a valuable producer down the stretch for his owners. However, if you do draft Peralta, make sure you have a viable option just in case Peralta suffers a setback during rehab.

David Wright, 3B NYM (-7.9%) — Wright used to be one of the most durable players in baseball, but that hasn’t been the case of late. He isn’t the fantasy asset he once was, which is exactly why his ADP continues to slip. He hit .289 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 38 games last season. Wright is going to hit in a prime spot in the New York lineup, but don’t let that affect your thinking. He is going to get hurt, he is going to miss time and his body just isn’t behind him anymore. An inflated BABIP (.351) helped him out last year, but his isolated power is way down there. The best-case scenario for Wright in 2016 would be a .280 average with 15 home runs. Don’t take a chance on him, go ahead and get yourself a third baseman earlier on in your draft.

Alcides Escobar, SS KC (-6.3%) — Escobar has shown great durability in his career, especially in Kansas City. However, when you draft him, you are banking on one thing: steals. His 2014 campaign saw him hit .285 with 31 stolen bases. However, those numbers dropped to .257 and 17 steals last season. He primarily serves as the team’s leadoff hitter, despite sporting a career .298 on-base percentage. Yes, the shortstop position is thin, but you are going to need 20 or more stolen bases from him this season. Escobar doesn’t strike out much, which is good, but a low hard-hit percentage keeps his batting average down. If you decide to wait on a shortstop, Escobar is serviceable, but there are safer options you can grab earlier on.

Hyun Soo Kim, OF BAL (-9.8%) — Even though Kim’s ADP is trending downwards, don’t necessarily see it as a bad thing. If you really are high on this guy, you can now grab a round or two later. His dreadful spring is pushing people away, but if you look at him recently, things are starting to come together. After starting the spring 0-for-21, he has six hits in his last 16 at-bats. It’s also encouraging to see that he has only struck out six times, so he is doing a quality job of putting the ball in play. His approach has been compared to that of Nori Aoki, but Kim will be better than him. His high contact rate should keep his average right around .275, while 15 homers and 80 RBI isn’t out of the question. Mix in a couple steals and some runs, and you got yourself a quality, high-upside selection in the later rounds of your draft.

If you have any questions or just want to talk fantasy, the easiest way to reach me is via twitter (@colbyrconway). Best of luck in your preparation.