2016 MLB Draft Guide: You Can Target Speed Late

One of the worst things that you can do in your fantasy baseball draft is force the issue when it comes to the various statistical categories. If we are talking specifically about speed and stolen bases, I am obviously inclined to talk about everybody’s favorite speedster, Billy Hamilton. Last season, Hamilton’s ADP in NFBC drafts was 46.44. Those who drafted Hamilton last season, likely selected the speedster ahead of superstars like Zack Greinke (ADP: 47.55), Adrian Gonzalez (ADP: 49.32), Matt Harvey (ADP: 53.89) and Chris Davis (ADP: 62).

There were so many things that would suggest that Hamilton had no possible way to meet his owner’s expectations considering he was often chosen in the top three rounds in most 15-team snake drafts, and had no ability to hit for a decent average, power, or even simply get on base.

While it is very important to not “punt” any categories in your 5x5 leagues, it’s definitely possible for you to pick up a player or two that will help you with stolen bases much later in the draft, or even the waiver wire. In the chart below, you will see a list of the 30 MLB players who had 20 stolen bases or more in 2015.

A few of the players on the list were able to significantly improve on their 2014 numbers, and will definitely be drafted much higher this season (Pollock, Cain, Inciarte, and Machado). However, there will always be some sort of value available in the later rounds of your drafts.

Of the 30 players that made the list, 17 of them had an ADP of 112.35 or later, while three players (Pillar, DeShields, and Maybin) were not selected in any of the 93 NFBC drafts.

Keep in mind that most of the NFBC drafts are 12-team Online Championship leagues, meaning that Billy Hamilton and his .250 AVG, 292 OBP, and 57 SB in 2014 was usually selected in one of the top four rounds. On the other hand, it also means that Lorenzo Cain, and his .301 AVG, .339 OBP, and 28 SB in 2014, was usually selected in the 16^th round or later. Yes, Cain completely exceeded all expectations, but most people would have been completely fine with Cain’s 2014 numbers considering his draft position and his ability to help your batting average. Nonetheless, Cain increased his home run total from five to 16, and the rest is history.  

While it is going to be difficult to predict a sudden increase in power similar to the case of Lorenzo Cain, you can only help your team by targeting speed guys that are going to be available later in your drafts, and have demonstrated an ability to hit for a good average, and routinely get on base. These players will not only help you with your stolen bases, but they are likely to have a positive impact on your batting average, and runs scored. A few guys that I have circled on my list this season are:

Billy Burns (.294 AVG, .334 OBP, 26 SB)

Adam Eaton (.287 AVG, .361 OBP, 18 SB)

Cesar Hernandez (.272 AVG, .339 OBP, 19 SB)

Odubel Herrera (.297 AVG, .344 OBP, 16 SB)

Ender Inciarte (.303 AVG, .338 OBP, 21 SB)

Ben Revere (.306 AVG, .342 OBP, 31 SB)

And lastly, the ADP chart also shows how important it is to keep a close eye on the waiver wire. For instance, when it was clear that Leonys Martin wasn’t the answer in Texas, Delino DeShields was given an opportunity for every day playing time in the leadoff spot, and was able to parlay that playing time to 25 SB with a .261 AVG and .344 OBP. Sometimes all someone needs is an opportunity or a change of scenery, and that was definitely the case with guys like DeShields, and even Cameron Maybin.