The numbers as of May 1, 2015 follow…

Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .382 with eight homers.

Adam Jones was hitting .400 with a 1.147 OPS.

Matt Carpenter was hitting .372 with a .438 OBP.

Jose Iglesias was batting .377 with a .536 SLG.

We know that no one continued along those lines the final five months.

 

 

Evan Gattis had two homers.

Adam Eaton was batting .192 with a .497 OPS.

Carlos Gonzalez was hitting .200 with a .594 OPS.

Edwin Encarnacion was hitting .205 with a .352 SLG.

Ben Revere was batting .215.

Jason Kipnis was hitting .218 with a .550 OPS.

Andrew McCutchen was hitting .194.

All of those players rebounded and had great runs.

 

So what are we left with? The question that we will try to simply answer here: How Much Patience Should One Have?

There is no answer to this question that applies to every player. Sorry, I always keep it real folks. A youngster who struggles will likely lose their spot in the lineup earlier than a seven-year vet if he’s also struggling. A superstar player will play every day no matter what if he starts slow. A slow-starting vet might find himself in a platoon quickly.

On the flipside a surging player early on, no matter what the experience level of the player, will continue to be on the field. It’s also fair to posit that when a player starts the season well it impresses people more while people often castigate and completely ignore players that start off slowly. Think of it. When a guy allowed 18 runs in 23 innings in August no one really notices. If that same guy produced like that in April he would be on waivers all over the place. Context matters.

Some general rules:

(1) If a player has a track record trust him. I’m more than willing to give a six-year vet three extra weeks than I am to give that rookie I took in the 23rd round of a draft. History matters to me and it should to you as well.

(2) If you selected the player in the top half of your draft give him some time. Dumping that shot in the dark you took in the 27th round is fine if he opens up slowly. If you’re dropping your seventh round selection, though, on May 1, I will question your sanity.

(3) Be objective with your analysis of a player. If the guy has a .218 BABIP as a hitter or a .387 BABIP as a pitcher logic would dictate a turnaround in performance. If a hitter has a HR/F ratio of 2.1 percent after a month, and his career mark is 18.0 percent, have some patience. If a hurler has a 9.00 K/9 and 5.75 K/BB ratio yet has an ERA of 7.25 exercise some patience. Keep it real.

(4) Note the health of the player. If the guy is hurt you can’t be expecting strong production. Is it a minor injury? Is it something that could bother him for months? The health of a player is a massive key.

As for the actual on the field stuff…

(5) You need to give a player a month at a minimum. In many cases that’s not even enough. Is 100 plate appearances enough to just a player? Remember Adam Eaton was batting .192 at the end of April. He ended up hitting .287 on the year. Honestly you can’t really know for a couple of months. Problem is, if you pass on trade offers or adding a guy off waivers waiting for a turnaround that never happens… well then your team stinks.

(6) You need to give a pitcher at least a month if not two, since even two months might only get you 10-12 starts to break down. Example. Jose Quintana had a 6.55 ERA at the end of April. He finished the year at 3.36 ERA.

How about we look at the 110 hurlers who qualified for the ERA title at the completion of the month of April. Of that group the following men were in the bottom 30 according to WAR: Julio Teheran, Jered Weaver, Nate Karns, Cole Hamels, Wei-Yin Chen, Yordano Ventura, Drew Hutchison, Carlos Martinez and Shelby Miller. Here is the ranking of each of those men at the end of the season (minimum 140 innings pitched – 96 men in total).

79thJulio Teheran
89thJered Weaver
74thNate Karns
18thCole Hamels
39thWei-Yin Chen
40thYordano Ventura
75thDrew Hutchison
27thCarlos Martinez
26thShelby Miller

Some rebounded, some didn’t. Just how it goes folks.

However, there are limits. You can never predict an injury. You can never predict, with absolute certainty, when a player will surge or struggle. At the same time, when players tank early on it’s often difficult in the extreme to overcome that slow start to return a players overall level of production back to the hoped-for level. Data does suggest that players who start out slowly can improve to the point of respectability, but at the same time a slow start is often indicative of an overall down effort. Honestly, it’s really about two things (1) sample size and (2) skill.

I would say, as a general rule, that you give a batter at least the month of April before you bail on him. For hurlers, I would like to give them 10 starts. Now, it all depends on the health of your roster, the waiver moves you can make, the deals you can work out, etc. There is no definitive answer as I said at the start of this piece, however.

Give hitters a month.
Give pitchers two months.

It won’t always work, and you certainly don’t have to play a guy through his struggles – i.e. I’m not suggesting you continue to play the guy daily. I’m suggesting that you don’t send the guy to the waiver-wire, or give up on him in a dump trade, if there’s a valid reason to believe the player is underperforming for reasons that you can quantify and can reasonably expect to turn around given enough time.