We all do our best to make things simple and understandable. One of the most frequently asked questions that comes my way each year seems simple but rarely is, “How will this youngster perform? Will the player take some time to find his groove or will he immediately explode on the scene?” Truth is, no one knows. Think I’m full of it? For every Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa there is a steady stream of players that really struggle in their first season. Who can forget the following first season of some of the best in the game? The answer is many of you, since everyone seemingly wants to draft rookies regardless of history, which strongly suggests that ample caution regarding first-year performance is warranted.

Mike Trout went .220-5-1620-2 with a .590 OPS in 40 games in 2011.

Manny Machado .262-7-26-24-2 with a .739 OPS in 51 games in 2012.

Jurickson Profar .231-7-38-32-2 with a .645 OPS in his first 94 games (2012-13).

Oscar Taveras .239-3-22-18-0 with a .590 OPS over 80 games in 2014.

Byron Buxton .209-2-6-16-2 with a .576 OPS over 46 games in 2015.

These are no lower level prospects either. These are some of the best of the best. The fact is, no one can predict if a player will “make it” or “how long” it will take a player to make it even if he does (after all, it took Bryce Harper four years at the major league level to reach his true potential and he was hailed as the best prospect in baseball in 25 years).

So how do we improve our chances of being more accurate beyond reading a scouting report?

Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics, attacked this issue years ago when he developed his Major League Equivalents (known as MLE’s). A closely guarded secret, how to actually calculate MLE’s, James developed the system as a way to translate minor league numbers into pro level performance, meaning if Player X hit 23 homers in League X that would equates to 17 homers at the big league level (or whatever the number might be). Basically, the theory of MLE’s is that we can translate the level of statistical performance in any minor league to the majors. The conversion seems to be more successful the higher one progresses in the minors meaning that Single-A numbers are tough, Double-A numbers are a bit better and Triple-A numbers give us the clearest picture when trying to project minor league success.

The last point, however, is a big issue. You will constantly hear me say something like, “he only has 214 at-bats above Double-A” or “that guy has only thrown 114.2 innings above Single-A” when people ask me about youngsters. What that means is that I agree with MLEs. The more experience a player has in the minors, especially at the upper levels, the more valuable those numbers are when we are trying to predict a player’s major league out. The issue, though, is this: more frequently than any time in the past, teams are “rushing” their talents through the minors. That alone is likely one of the reasons some guys struggle in the big leagues. It’s not that Player A doesn’t have the talent to be a star it’s just that he hasn’t “learned” the nuances of playing the game. Just look at the following list of players who burst on the scene last year. Each player is listed by the games/innings they have appeared in Triple-A in their young careers.

Kris Bryant, 77 games

Byron Buxton, zero games

Carlos Correa, 24 games

Taylor Jungmann, 161 innings

Francisco Lindor, 97 games

Lance McCullers, zero games

Aaron Nola, 32.2 innings

Joc Pederson, 121 games

Carlos Rodon, 22 innings

Eduardo Rodriguez, 48.1 innings

Addison Russell, 14 games

Miguel Sano, zero games

Kyle Schwarber, 17 games

Noah Syndergaard, 162.2 innings

The fact is most elite level talents simply don’t spend much time in the minors and they quite frequently make the jump from Double-A to the bigs, spending little time in Triple-A against more mature talent.

Some other concerns with MLE’s:

  1. Players are often promoted only when they are doing well. That means MLE’s often leave out players that are struggling a bit, which leads to an inflated series of number for many players.
  2. MLE’s do not take into account a player’s age. An All-Star season at 21 certainly means more than the same performance from a 25-year-old, doesn’t it?
  3. How will a player perform at the next level? MLE’s acts like it’s got this licked. It really doesn’t. Isn’t the leap from Double-A to the majors much more significant than Double-A to Triple-A? Players simply don’t adjust at the same rate, and thinking we can predict how they will perform when moving from playing 24-year-olds of moderate talent to 30-year-old men in the big leagues is foolish.

So the bottom line is that as much as MLE’s help, they really aren’t the “answer” to the question of who will perform. Also, can we trust minor league numbers? The simple fact is this… there is no answer. It doesn’t exist. There is still some level of guesswork involved in predicting player performance, there’s just no way around it, when we try to predict how they will perform at the big league level.

A few overall points.

  • Some leagues are “hitters” leagues due to weather issues or perhaps park dimensions.
  • Sometimes a hurler will go out there and work on a pitch without caring about the results. Whereas he might throw his curveball 10 percent of the time perhaps he found a new grip and wants to test the pitch so he will throw it 30 percent of the time in a game. If he gets hit hard his organization understands why – he’s learning on the job. Ditto a hitter who is pull-happy. Maybe for three straight weeks all he is concentrating on is hitting the ball to the opposite field. In both cases the player’s performance, i.e. numbers, will dip but that’s not really giving you a full picture of who the player is.
  • Who is the player competing against? Is he facing inexperienced 21-year-olds right out of college? Is he facing seasoned pros who are 28-year-olds?
  • How will the player react when playing in front of 60,000 people instead of 6,000? Will nerves be an issue? Will he press? Mental makeup matters a ton and, unfortunately, we often times have zero inclination on how any player will react.

 

Minor league numbers matter, but more than homers or ERA you should do as you always do: focus on the player’s skill. Can they hit the ball the other way? Are they susceptible to off-speed stuff? Have they learned to drive the ball yet? Can they take a walk?

Does a pitcher have one, two or three elite pitches? Can he work out of the stretch? Does he have ground ball or fly ball tendencies? All of these issues should be addressed when trying to understand minor league numbers.