THE SKY IS FALLING

Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto stink. They are terrible. They are going to fail in 2016. I’ve heard it all over and over. Why? Folks, get your head out of your rear-end.

Cabrera is 17th in baseball history in OPS.

Votto is 20th in baseball history in OPS.

Cabrera is batting .206 with a .597 OPS.

Votto is batting .206 with a .604 OPS.

I don’t care at all about the slow starts and neither should you.

It’s been less than 20 games.

Where is your patience with ELITE hitters? Not solid, not good, but elite.

Cabrera hit .241 with a .625 OPS last September.
He hit .338 with a .974 OPS on the year.

Votto hit .253 with a .707 OPS last May.
He hit .314 with a 1.000 OPS on the year.

Complain to someone else about these guys. You’re bitching is falling on deaf ears over here.

THE SKY IS FALLING PART II

Justin Upton is not taking to the water in Detroit or something as both he and Miggy are struggling hard.

Folks get all worried when a guy signs a big deal that he will easy off and get soft. I can’t discount that some folks will react that way, but there’s no way to really know, hence the problem with Justin. As this talk pertains to Upton I’m just going to say I’ll take Upton if you don’t want him. When has the 28 year old ever failed? The answer is that he never has. He plays every day, has averaged 28 homers with 84 RBI and 85 runs scored the past three seasons and is really talented. He’s a mess right now, can’t argue that, but his track record, over eight years, combined with his talent level, age, and batting lineup, all point to Justin being an excellent buy low option. Upton is a mess. Bench him for now. But buy him at less than full value if you can, and for certain, don’t give up on him.

WHAT IS UP WITH RASMUS?

Colby Rasmus has long been nothing other than a guy. You need a cheap 20 homers? Shoot. You need anything else. Pass. However, he’s been blowing up this season in a major way. Through 19 games Rasmus thinks he’s Cabrera or Votto with a .293/.440/.707 slash line. He’s hit seven big flies and driven in 18 runs. I’ve been hearing the standard ‘he’s really comfortable in Houston’ line as if that explains what is going on. It doesn’t. Nothing explains what we are seeing if being honest here. Rasmus is a career .245 hitter with a .316 OBP, league average stuff. He’s also never hit more than 25 homers, had only one season of 70 RBI and has failed to reach 60 runs scored in two of three seasons. Remember with Rasmus that we’re talking about a guy with more than 3,500 plate appearances. We know who he is. He’s not taking the leap this season. He’s not holding on to a 0.94 BB/K ratio when his career mark is 0.35. Second, Rasmus has a .447 SLG for his career and his current OBP is .440. Come on, this should be obvious. Third, Rasmus has a 14.1 percent HR/FB ratio for his career. This season the mark is 36.8 percent. It’s never even been 20 percent before.

Do yourself a favor and remember the old adage of… sell high.

INTRIGUED BY…

Joe Mauer.

It’s been years since he was worth a damn, and two years of crap down get erased by three strong weeks. Still, here’s what I see.

Joe Mauer is using new strobe glasses in practice that he thinks are helping his previously strained vision. Is it fair to think that his new training, and the simple passage of time, is enough to cure him of the concussion woes that he’s dealt with in the recent past?

Second, Mauer has a 17.9 percent walk rate that would be a career best. His strikeout rate is 9.5 percent (the mark has been over 16.5 percent the last three seasons). The result is that Mauer has a 1.88 BB/K ratio. He owns a career mark of 0.97 but has been under 0.70 the last three seasons.

Mauer has a hard hit ball rate of 36.7 percent. The mark has been under 30 percent the last two seasons but it was over 37 percent in 2012 and 2013. Mauer also has a .356 BABIP compared to his career mark of .344, The mark dipped to a mere .309 last season.

Mauer can’t be said to be “back.” However, it is fair to say that things are improving and that he now intrigues. Realize that in a mixed league he’s still nothing other than a corner infield option, so even with the good news expectations need to be tempered.

I’VE WARNED BEFORE…

Welington Castillo has five homers, nine RBI and a .603 wOBA the last week. He’s been out of control good. We saw that same thing from him last year from him over 21 games from July 27th to August 24th when he blasted 10 homers. So you can be the pro Castillo type and say that you believe Castillo is a guy who is capable of hitting 18 home runs in 61 games consistently, and yes he has that many big flies in his last 61 games, or you can take the approach that I spoke of in his Player Profile. You can also note, that even with all the homers the last 61 games that he’s still hitting only .251 with a .304 OBP and mere 0.29 BB/K ratio. He could be a top-12 catcher, sure it’s possible, but he’s not a fantasy star and you shouldn’t be pushing hard to add him to your squad.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).