With the baseball season fast approaching and Spring Training upon us, fantasy owners are beginning to compile their rankings and projections for 2016. Sorting through established players and household names is one thing, but leagues are never won by big-named stars performing at their expected statistics. Instead, crowns are donned by the owners who were able to sift through the first 200 players selected and draft upside “deep sleepers” (ones who are able to greatly outperform their ADP and provide exceptional value to their owners). Which players qualify for that distinction this season? Read on and find out.

Player: Andrew Heaney

Team: Los Angeles Angels

Age: 24

Position: SP

2015 Statistics: 6-4 record over 105.2 IP / 3.49 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 78 Ks

Current ADP: 272 (Fantasy Pros)

Background

Expected to begin the 2016 season as the fourth starter in the Angels rotation, Heaney’s name has been tossed around as a sleeper for the better part of three seasons, largely due to the hype he received as a prospect while a part of the Miami Marlins system. Owners finally had a chance to see him in action last season, after waiting for what seemed to be an eternity in the minor leagues. The results that he posted last year (listed above) are typical of a rookie pitcher – he had several starts where he showed flashes of brilliance (such as the month of July, when he posted a 4-0 record, 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP) and rough patches as well (He couldn’t even make it out of the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays after surrendering eight earned runs in late August).

So what should owners expect from Heaney entering 2016? Is he the high-end ace that was touted in fantasy circles several years ago? Or a back-end starter with limited upside? The truth lies somewhere in between. While Heaney owns an above-average fastball which can reach speeds upwards of 93-94 MPH, his only true strikeout pitch is his slider. He has been developing a sinker and changeup to compliment his arsenal, but their effectiveness has really only been tested during Spring Training. The early returns have certainly been encouraging (Heaney owns a 2.57 ERA over 14.0 IP through four starts), but one has to wonder if the success will translate once April hits.

Positives

1.) Consistency - Wait a minute, didn’t you just say that he went through struggles in his rookie campaign? Why write about consistency then? Well, consider this. In nine of Heaney’s 10 first starts, he allowed two earned runs or less. While his record only stood at 4-0 during that time span, it could have easily been much better with additional run support. Even after his “blow-up” game against the Blue Jays, during five of the next seven starts he allowed three earned runs or less. True, Heaney faded down the stretch and had a handful of poor outings to close 2015 with a bitter taste in owner’s mouths. They shouldn’t forget how things started, or hope that he can make the necessary adjustments to maintain his performance throughout the latter half of 2016.

2.) Pedigree - For all of the managers who are getting flush in the face while thinking of Lucas Giolito or Tyler Glasnow, let me kindly point out that he was receiving similar levels of hype back in 2013-2014. Heaney routinely topped prospect charts, and was considered the focal point of two major trades. While his rookie season didn’t quite mirror those of a Jose Fernandez or Stephen Strasburg, the upside was evident.

Negatives

1.) Smaller than expected K% - Taking into account Heaney’s fastball-slider combination and his minor league track record, it is surprising that he couldn’t crack the 6.6 K/9 rate last season. The most strikeouts he recorded in a single game in 2015 was just 7 (against the New York Yankees on June 30). At each level of the minor leagues his rate floated around the 9.6 mark, so the drop is alarming. While he utterly dominated left-hand batters (they only hit .228 against him), right-handed batters performed much better - nearly 30 points higher. This could partially be explained due to the low ground-ball rate that he was able to induce against right-handed batters. Additionally, of the nine home runs which he surrendered last season, eight came against right-handed players. The splits will need to be corrected.

2.) Struggles down the stretch – If Heaney could have duplicated his performance from the first to the second half of 2015, he would be in the SP2 discussion entering this year. Simply put, from August until his final start in October, Heaney had a difficult time lasting past the fifth inning. In fact, during those three months he only made it into the seventh inning once. His inefficiency against right-handed batters spelled his doom, as the pitch counts per inning routinely were North of 20. Inducing weaker contact will help, especially if he can develop his secondary pitches.