While there’s no replacing the countless hours of hardcore research and number-crunching necessary to properly prepare you for your draft, the use of the mock draft is one of the best ways to help get yourself prepared for the big day. Ranking players and assigning auction values is a great start, but public perception plays such a huge part in your draft that you would be doing yourself a disservice by not taking it into account. We’re taught at a very young age to not care about what other people think, but in this case, it’s paramount. Whether it’s a snake-style draft or an auction, what other people think about a player is going to be the key to the values you assign. But before we get to the mock draft here in the magazine, let’s establish a few things about the mock draft process to carry with you during your off-season preparation.
1. Mock drafts are like snowflakes - no two are ever alike. Eventually you’ll start to see patterns develop within each draft. The top-5 may change in order, but it’s always the same players. Runs on specific positions will occur in or around a particular round. While you may see similarities from draft to draft, there will still be a number of differences that will cause you to alter your game plan. This is why you don’t just do one mock, but a series. You want to see where the patterns develop and how a variety of owners act towards them.
2. Mock drafts are a guideline, not the gospel. Yes, patterns develop. Yes, you will see a variety of similar trends. But you cannot count on them each and every time. You don’t always see a run of closers in the sixth round, but when the run does occur you now know how to react. You can choose to join, or you can address another need, based on both your draft and your expectation of what will happen later after such a run exists. The mocks you have done become a rough outline rather than a template and your ability to adapt because of what you know is coming is derived from that knowledge.
3. The mock draft is a learning tool. This might be the most important aspect of the mock draft, yet it gets overlooked by far too many of its participants. You need to mix up your strategy in each mock draft you do. The mock draft is a simulation, and you need to learn from as many different possible outcomes as you can. All too often, people go after their ultimate draft day targets in mocks to see how their team looks at the end. But there’s so much more to it than that. You can learn more from taking a guy just to see how the subsequent picks in the round go afterwords than if you were to just rigidly go down your list of favorites. We’re not saying to do something frivolous like taking Wilson Ramos in the third round just to see how everyone reacts, but maybe try a pitcher-heavy strategy just to see how the rest of the field goes. Maybe try and start that closer run a little earlier and see how many people bite and how many stand their ground. There are millions of different draft scenarios, and it’s to your benefit to see as many of them as you can.
So with that, it’s now time to take a look at the 2015 Fantasy Alarm MLB Draft Guide’s mock draft.
In order to get this to the printer/publisher on time, we had to do our mock draft in late December. There is obviously still some movement taking place, a number of position battles to be won and lost, and, of course, the array of injuries that occur during spring training, but as we just said in the above paragraphs, this is a guideline for you, not the gospel. Consider this your primer, your base coat, if you will.
We took 10 of the best fantasy minds here at Fantasy Alarm and invited a pair of ringers to join us for what we hope will be your springboard to a successful draft. We drafted under the assumption that it would be a 12-team, mixed, two-catcher league with standard 5x5 roto categories and standard 23-man rosters. We also included two extra rounds at the end to account for some high-upside youngsters or potentially forgotten veteran rebound candidates.
Because some of the best fantasy information is often gleaned from a multitude of opinions, also included here is a list of mock draft picks and pans. Without being allowed to select one of their own choices, we’ve asked each participant to tell us which pick they loved the most and which pick they hated. Call it their last chance to praise or snipe beyond the in-draft chat room, if you will, but more importantly, it’s interesting and opinionated commentary from those who have collectively won a boatload of fantasy baseball championships.

Todd Zola
Loved it: Pick 6.04 Matt Kemp, OF SD (Ray Flowers) — With Kemp either you believe or you don’t, and with the report about arthritis during his Padres physical, more don't. I do. At least for this year, anyway, as the arthritis is a long-term concern, but I saw enough after the All-Star break last season to anticipate a very solid season, even in Petco Park.
Hated it: Pick 1.06 Jose Abreu, 1B CHW (Ivar Anderson) — It's really hard typing this while dodging lightning bolts being sent down from the fantasy gods, but I'm sorry, I see way too much that can go wrong with Abreu, with a limited chance he repeats last year's good fortune. In geek-speak, I don't see a carry-over of his .356 batting average on balls in play and especially his 27 percent home run per fly ball rate. These bloated metrics masked a below-average contact rate and relatively high ground ball rate.
Rick Wolf
Loved it: Pick 8.01 Dellin Betances, RP NYY (Lawr Michaels) — The upside is immense. The Yankees love to have a closer get all the saves and pitch the ninth inning. He should be able to put up SP numbers for strikeouts with great ratios and a boatload of saves.
Hated it: Pick 5.12 Marcell Ozuna, OF MIA (Lawr Michaels) — Too fancy. He’s a .260 hitter with decent pop, but was he really the best outfielder on the board? Matt Kemp, Billy Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Jason Heyward, Matt Holliday and Jayson Werth all went after him. What am I missing?
Howard Bender
Loved it: Pick 20.02 Carlos Carrasco, SP CLE (Steve Gardner) — I tipped my hand way too early, as I accidentally clicked Carrasco’s name somewhere in the earlier rounds and had the pick changed to a much more sensible choice that early. But while I knew everyone in the room was digging Carrasco, my mock draft nemesis Steve Gardner was now put on notice that this was a player I wanted. Because this was a mock designed to guide the readers, I knew I had to wait on Carrasco. The hype will raise his ADP enough; I didn’t have to do it here. But in waiting, Gardner scooped him up ahead of me and will reap the benefits of a developing stud whose strikeout and ground ball rates will remain high while his command and super-nasty slider will keep the ratios low.
Hated it: Pick 3.06 Michael Brantley, OF CLE (Ivar Anderson) — It’s not that I don’t love Brantley as a player and wouldn’t be happy with him on my roster, but certainly not as my No. 1 outfielder. He had a peak season in 2014, and while I could see him coming close to many of those numbers again, there are certain spikes in his data, particularly his BABIP and HR/FB, that were significant enough that I think he finds a happy medium as opposed to plateauing in the 20/20 realm. He passed up on Carlos Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp and even Yoenis Cespedes, all of whom I have ranked higher.
Mark Kaplan
Loved it: Pick 18.05 Danny Santana, SS MIN (Jeff Mans) — He has shortstop and outfield eligibility, hit seven home runs, and stole 20 bases in only 101 games last season. The youngster can do it all as he posted a solid slash line of .319/.353/.472 as well. It was a steal getting a player of his caliber so late in the draft.
Hated it: Pick 7.07 Elvis Andrus, SS TEX (Glenn Colton) — There's zero reason to take this guy in the first 10 rounds of draft. He doesn't hit for power or average, the stolen bases are nothing special (had 27 SB last season), he barely contributes in home runs and runs batted in, and he's not going to get any better. Alcides Escobar had a similar, if not better, statistical season than Andrus, and he lasted till the 17th round. Do yourself a favor by avoiding Andrus in all fantasy formats.
Michael A. Stein
Loved it: Pick 7.11 Starlin Castro, SS CHC (Steve Gardner) — Castro is feeling the pressure now with all the trade rumors and the Cubs’ collection of talented young shortstops in Javier Baez and Addison Russell. He has great value where he was drafted, especially a few picks after Elvis Andrus. He will provide solid offensive numbers in all five roto categories, which is tremendous for a shortstop that late in the draft
Hated it: Pick 1.12 Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL (Lawr Michaels) -- Tulowitzki is such a huge injury risk that I would never draft him as the foundation of my team. He is elite when healthy, but he is never healthy. Tulowitzki is now 30 years old and coming off of hip surgery, so he is a huge question mark and cannot be trusted.
Ivar Anderson
Loved it: Pick 17.1 Drew Smyly, SP TB (Todd Zola) – I expect him to pick up where he left off last season, providing a 3:1 K/BB ratio, a low WHIP around 1.16, his career average and an ERA south of 3.30. He does not have the arm to produce elite strikeout numbers, but his peripherals are very good and he strikes out nearly eight batters per nine innings. I worry a bit about the loss of Joe Maddon as manager, but Tampa has a good team and Smyly should slot in as the SP4 in the rotation.
Hated it: Pick 1.12 Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL (Lawr Michaels) — I have given up on taking Tulo in drafts, because you need to grab him so early, and then he will inevitably miss time with injuries. Over the past three years, he has played 47, 126 and 91 games. Yes, he is the top SS in the game, but you want your top pick to give you stats over the majority of the season, not just part of it. If you draft Tulo, you need to grab another top-15 SS to sit on your bench in the event your first round draft pick hits the DL and with Tulo, the odds are good that he will miss significant action during the season.
Glenn Colton
Loved it: Pick 20.02 Carlos Carrasco, SP CLE (Steve Gardner) – I loved this pick of Carrasco in Round 20. This guy could easily be this year's Corey Kluber. Gardner will love owning this heat-throwing post-hype sleeper.
Hated it: Pick 3.11 Brian Dozier, 2B MIN (Steve Gardner) — Yes, second base is a very scarce position and yes, 20/20 guys are hard to come by, but that .240 average will kill you and that was what Dozier hit in Triple-A as well as the bigs. Third round was just too early.
Jeff Mans
Loved it: Pick 19.07 Josh Hamilton, OF LAA (Glenn Colton) — Nobody likes Hamilton this year but when you move past the emotional letdown of his injuries, his baseline of a .265 average, 22 HR and 75 RBI is pretty darn good for that late in the draft. It is a huge “if” but if he were to stay healthy his upside makes Hamilton a tremendous value where Glenn selected him.
Hated it: Pick 10.07 Mookie Betts, 2B BOS (Ivar Anderson) — When I look at the 10th round and see names like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hosmer, Gerrit Cole, Matt Carpenter and Brett Gardner, the one name that doesn't fit is Red Sox Mookie Betts. There are so many potential obstacles in Betts’ 2015 season that taking him when all of these other proven players are still on the board is just a mistake.
Ray Flowers
Loved it: Round 19.03 Gregory Polanco, OF PIT (Howard Bender) — The guy was great and then awful in 2014, but Polanco's still elite with potentially across-the-board talent. The 19th round actually had some nice outfield talent after the position was ignored for a couple of rounds. Pretty hard to argue with Howard's outfield either... might be the best group in the league- other than mine of course.
Hated it: Round 3.02 Victor Martinez, DH DET (Rick Wolf) — In 2012 I told Rick and Glenn Colton they were "hosed" after V-Mart hurt his knee like a day after we did the FSTA draft. Was this payback, Rick? Martinez is old (37), there's no chance he will repeat the homer total (32) and it's dubious he will reach 87 runs or .335 in the batting average column again. Hosed again perhaps?
Ted Schuster
Loved it: Pick 5.05 Joey Votto, 1B CIN (Michael A. Stein) — He will have a big bounce-back season and return first or second round value.
Hated it: Pick 7.02 Jimmy Rollins, SS LAD (Rick Wolf) — Rollins in the seventh is too early for a player whose talent is going downhill quickly. The power numbers are going to be down in Dodger Stadium and the batting average will continue to fall.
Steve Gardner, USA Today Sports
Loved it: Pick 11.08 Matt Harvey, SP NYM (Jeff Mans) — As much as I liked Jeff Mans getting Clayton Kershaw with the eighth overall pick in the draft, I thought his selection of Matt Harvey in the 11th round was even better. Yes, Harvey is coming back from elbow surgery, but he’ll be over a year and a half removed from that surgery when the season starts. When he was last on a national stage in 2013, he was the NL’s starter in the All-Star Game. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has struck out just under 10 batters per nine innings in his 36 MLB starts. Harvey is an elite talent who shouldn’t last until the 11th round of any draft.
Hated it: Pick 4.01 Yoenis Cespedes, OF DET (Lawr Michaels) — My buddy Lawr Michaels has built his reputation as fantasy’s Zen master by playing this game the unconventional way. Many times the things he does don’t make sense on the surface but somehow end up working out. If that’s the case in this draft, I can’t wait to see how Yoenis Cespedes justifies Lawr’s selection as the first pick in the fourth round. More flash than substance, Cespedes had a career-high 600 at-bats in 2014 and hit a career-low 22 homers. Now on his third team in two years, he shouldn’t be considered a borderline No. 1 outfielder. At least not in my book.
Lawr Michaels, Mastersball
Loved it: Pick 20.08 Lucas Duda, 1B/OF NYM (Michael A. Stein) — How can you not like 25-plus homer potential this late? Also, an honorable mention goes to Matt Kemp in the sixth round by Ray Flowers. It’s the perfect kind of gamble.
Hated it: Pick 5.08 Jay Bruce, OF CIN (Jeff Mans) — Bruce is the new Jeff Francouer, so grabbing him in the fifth round, especially with Kemp still out there is just madness, to quote James Douglas (Major Clipton) from The Bridge on the River Kwai.
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