Oswaldo Arcia turns 24 in May of 2015. He's already flashed power in limited big league work. With the Twins needing power in the middle of their lineup, they are hoping that a healthy Arcia will be able to blast 30 long balls for them in the coming season. Is that a reasonable number for the Twins to expect? We'll investigate in this entry.

THE MINORS

2008: Signed as an amateur free agent, the 17 year old he appeared in 61 games in the Dominican Summer League. He hit .293 with a .775 OPS as he hit four homers and stole eight bases. 

2009: Saw action in 44 games at Rookie Ball batting .275 with five homers and 24 RBIs. He posted a .792 OPS.

2010: In 64 games at Rookie Ball he hit .375 with a 1.096 OPS. Finally showing the production that was expected. He socked 14 homers with 51 RBIs and 47 runs scored.   

2011: Saw action over 81 games at Rookie Ball, Low-A and High-A. He hit .291 with a .866 OPS. Arcia hit 13 homers with 51 RBIs and 71 strikeouts. 

2012: Appeared in 124 games at High-A and Double-A. Struck out 107 times but hit an impressive .320 with a .928 OPS. He went deep 17 times, drove in 98 and scored 76 times. 

2013: Baseball America had Oswaldo ranked as the 41th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 60th while MLB.com had him 93rd. Appeared in 38 games at Triple-A hitting .313 with a 1.020 OPS. Went deep 10 times with 30 RBIs.

2014:  Appeared in 22 games at Triple-A with a .312 batting average and .962 OPS. Went deep five times with 18 RBIs. 

TOTALS: .314/.375/.542 with 68 homers, 308 RBIs, 268 runs scored and 343 strikeouts in 434 games.

THE MAJORS

2013: In 97 games as a rookie, Arcia hit .251 with 14 homers for the Twins. He also struck out a whopping 117 times as he drove home 43 runners over 378 plate appearances. 

2014: Saw 103 games of big league work hitting 20 big flies while driving in 57 runs. Arcia hit just .213 and struck out 127 times in 410 plate appearances. A strained right wrist cost him more than a month of game action.

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THE SKILLS

Arcia turns 24 in May, and he stands 6'0" and weighs about 210 lbs. He's not afraid of letting some shaft out either as he takes a hack. That's pretty evident based on his early work. Through 723 at-bats he's hit 34 homers, driven in 100 runners and scored 80 times. Let's look more closely at the power stroke.

Arcia has averaged 17 homers in his two big league seasons even though he's yet to hit 375 at-bats. Moreover, per 550 at-bats he has averaged 26 homers. Only 20 men in baseball hit 26 homers last season.

Arcia had a 41 percent fly ball ratio as a rookie, and that mark was 42 percent in year two. With the big league average at 35 percent, Arcia is clearly a guy who understands his strengths and that is lifting the ball. His fly ball ratio in 2014 was 10 percentage points higher than Jose Abreu.

Arcia had a 14.7 HR/F ratio as a rookie. That mark was 19.4 percent last season. Through two years it's sitting at 17.2 percent. Among batters that had at least 502 plate appearances last season, only six men were over 20 percent and just 16 men were at 17 percent. It's a pretty big number. That's not to say that Arcia couldn't maintain that level of production, I'm just pointing out that it's pretty darn high. Should note that during his minor league career, from 2011-14, the mark was 15.2 percent suggesting that he clearly has the stroke to be a potential top-25 option at the big league level in the HR/F category. 

He hasn't shown that power stroke against lefties though. Here are the splits.

vs. lefties: one homer every 40.8 at-bats
vs. righties: one homer 17.1 every at-bats

It's only been two less than complete seasons of work, but that's a significant gap. Might not even be a strong enough word. That's a massive chasm. There's more to suggest lefties give him real problems at this point. Here are the slash lines for his career against both sides.

vs. lefties: .224/.266/.347
vs. righties: .249/.319/.490

Massive SLG difference. Something to think about.

As for home/road splits, really not much to worry about along those lines.

Home: .237/.313/.446 with 18 homers in 363 at-bats
Away: .244/.291/.436 with 16 homers in 360 at-bats

The power is legit.

The batting average? It's legitimately poor. After hitting .251 as a rookie he batted .231 in his season season leaving him with a .241 average over 200 games. Due to all the fly balls, his GB/FB ratio is 0.95. That helps with power, but it obviously hurts the ole batting average given that fewer fly balls end up as hits than any type of batted ball. 

Arcia has a 19.4 percent line drive rate through two years. That's a league average mark.
Arcia has a .314 BABIP. That's ever so slightly above the league average.

Now we get to the approach, and it's not pretty.

Arcia has walked 54 times to this point, a 6.9 percent walk rate. That's nowhere near where I would like it to be. We would hope for 9-10 percent from a power bat. It's hot awful, but certainly not ideal.

The real issue for Arcia is the strikeouts. Huge issue there. In both of his seasons his K-rate has been 31 percent. The result is a massive total of 224 punchouts through 723 at-bats. He's a strikeout force, and that's only good if you are a starting pitcher. Arcia has had a contact rate of about 68 percent the last two seasons. The big league average is about 78 percent. With such massive swing and miss numbers, any appreciable growth in the batting average category is simply not possible. With this approach hitting .250 would be a solid accomplishment.

As for his ability to steal bases. He's 2-for-6 when he tries to run. That's laughable.

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

I touched on the significant struggles that Arcia has faced when a lefty has been on the mound. In leagues where you can manage your lineup on a daily basis it's fair to think that he should pretty much be on the bench whenever the Twins face a southpaw. At the same time, when looking up and down the Twins current lineup, who has legitimate 20 homer power? Brian Dozier and...? Kennys Vargas? Eventually Miguel Sano when he's called up, but the point is that the Twins daily lineup is going to lack thump, and that might mean that Arcia is still in their lineup even with portsiders on the bump.

CONCLUSION

Arcia is all power. If he plays enough to pick up 500+ at-bats, and at this point it seems extremely likely that will be the case, a run to 30 homers cannot be ruled out. The best case scenario for his outlook in 2015 is something like a Lucas Duda effort (.253-30-92). A worst case scenario could be Adam Dunn like (.219-22-64). 

10 team lg: No reason to look at him as anything other than a final round call. No speed an a terrible outlook in the batting average category render him as a league average option in a league this shallow. A bench outfielder type.

12 team lg: Nothing more than a fifth outfielder in this format. That is unless you simply have killed it in average, runs and steals at your other spots. Might be able to sneak him in as a 4th outfielder then. There's big time power upside, but also cavernous lows when/if he slumps.

15 team lg: Interested here. His power potential, as well as the run production, vaults him up to 4th outfielder consideration. Ideally he's be your 5th outfielder or flex option. Then we'd be in business. His 30 homer potential his well worth a bid late.

AL-only: Arcia is a great option here. Roster him as your 3rd outfielder takes guts, but the reward could be well worth it. Absorbing a .240 batting average in a league this deep is totally doable.