Standing 6'2" and weighing in at about 200 lbs, righty Collin McHugh is coming off a rather impressive first season with the Astros. After two seasons of uneven, often pathetic work, McHugh established himself last year as a name that should be on the radar of most in the fantasy game. Can he build on that breakout campaign that not all noticed and establish himself as a widely known name in the fantasy game?

THE MINORS

2008: Drafted in the 18th round by the Mets out of Berry College in Georgia. As a 21 year old he pitched 12 games, and made eight starts in Rookie Ball. He posted a 4.17 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate.

2009: At low-A ball he went 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 75 innings. Also struck out 79 batters while walking just 21. 

2010: Moved up to Single-A ball and went 7-8 with a 3.33 EEA and 1.34 WHIP over 132.1 innings (20 starts). He struck out 129 batters in 132.1 innings with a 3.39 K/BB ratio.

2011: Saw action in 27 games, making 22 starts, at High-A and Double-A ball. Won nine games against four loses with a 3.84 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 3.02 K/BB ratio.

2012: Appeared in 25 games, all starts, at Double and Triple-A. Won seven against nine loses as his ERA fell to 2.91 and his WHIP to 1.14. His K/9 rate dropped a bit to 8.2 and his K/BB ratio was just under three to one. 

2013: Pitched in Double and Triple-A making 20 starts lasting 113 innings. Won six games with five loses as his ERA (3.42) and WHIP (1.28) rose from their 2012 levels. Posted an impressive 3.70 K/BB ratio. 

2014: Made five appearances, three starts, for the Astros' Triple-A club sporting a 2-2 record, 4.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 46.2 innings. He struck out 47 batters as well. 

TOTALS: 37-28, 3.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.18 K/BB ratio over 657.2 innings

THE MAJORS

2012: Pitching for the Mets he appeared in eight games making four starts. The results were pretty ghastly as he failed to win a game, lost four, had a 7.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. 

2013: Pitching for the Mets and Rockies Colin appeared in seven games making five starts. Yet again the results were ghastly. McHugh didn't win a game, lost four, had a 10.04 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. 

2014: Finally finding his form, McHugh impressed in his first season with the Astros. Making 25 starts, Colin went 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, not to mention that he struck out 157 batters over the span of 154.2 innings in a truly impressive campaign. 
 


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THE SKILLS

With McHugh we've got a guy that's totally flown under the radar for know appreciable reason. Pitching for the Astros doesn't get you on national television every day, and teammate Dallas Keuchel did have a historically good run for about two months last season, but that doesn't mean there shouldn't be more hype with McHugh. Let's explore by once again reviewing his minor league work. 

He struck out nearly a batter per inning at 8.7 per nine.
He walked just 2.7 batters per nine.
His K/BB ratio was 3.18.
His ratios were solid (3.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

There are plenty of all-star caliber pitchers in the big leagues that simply can't match that level of success. 

I can forgive people for not even knowing McHugh's name prior to last season. His work in 2012-13 was horrific, akin to the lines I was floating at the bar last Friday when I was trying to get a lesbian to switch teams (my "game" isn't that strong I guess). Things turned around for me when I met two French au pairs, and things also turned around for McHugh in 2014. 

McHugh had a 2.73 ERA in 2014 which was better than Julio Teheran (2.89), Madison Bumgarner (2.98), Sonny Gray (3.08), David Price (3.11), Stephen Strasburg (3.14) and Max Scherzer (3.15).

McHugh had a 1.02 WHIP in 2014 which was better than... well, amongst pitchers who threw at least 162 innings last season only four men in baseball were better: Clayton Kershaw (0.86), Felix Hernandez (0.92), Johnny Cueto (0.96) and Chris Sale (0.97).

Let's use 150 innings as our baseline since McHugh only pitched 154.2 innings. 

McHugh had a 9.14 K/9 mark in 2014. There were only 13 men in baseball who were better.

McHugh walked just 2.39 batters per nine in 2014. There were 45 men who were better. 

McHugh posted a 3.83 K/BB ratio in 2014. There were only 23 men who were better.

How many arms struck out 9.1 per nine, walked less than 2.4 per nine and had a K/BB ratio over 3.75 last year (minimum 150 innings pitched)? The answer is nine: David Price, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and McHugh.

That's some serious pitching folks.

Review McHugh's work at the minor league level it becomes clear that his 2014 levels were the peak of his abilities. At the same time, what he did last year wasn't absurd given his skills. To reiterate - it was the best he could ever do. Doesn't mean he won't settle in as a very good arm though in '15.

What do I say all the time? I want strikeouts, a guy who doesn't walk batters and grounders. We've got two of three with McHugh given his 42 percent ground ball rate. That's better than the 34-35 percent league average, but it's still a bit low for a guy that I'm outright targeting to have on my roster. His mark last year is also a near match for the 43 percent mark he posted in the minors. It's certainly a number I can live with when it's taking in conjunction with a seven percent HR/F ratio in the minors and the 9.5 percent mark he posted in 2014 with the Astros. 

I'm a bit confused/worried about my game with ladies... I mean the line drive rate of McHugh. From 2011 on in the minors his line drive rate was 18.1 percent, slightly better than the norm, but with his control not crazy to think it's a level he could work at. Alas, his big league mark is astronomical at over 25 percent including 24.1 percent last season. That's a huge number that logic says will come down in 2015. Oddly though, his BABIP might still rise. McHugh somehow gave up an inordinate number of line drives last season - there were only two men in baseball who threw 150-innings and had a higher mark in Ervin Santana (24.7) and Ryan Vogelsong (24.2) - but still posted a low .259 BABIP. So strange. Expect the BABIP to move upward while the line drive rate declines (his minor league number since 2011 in BABIP was .309). 

It would also be wise to expect a regression in his left on base percentage that was over 76 percent. The league average is usually about 70 percent, and while back-to-back seasons do occur with a mark over 75 percent, it's a high bar to try and reach. 

One final note. My buddy Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs had a really interesting piece on both McHugh and Jake Arrieta (for more on Arrieta you can read his Player Profile). Both arm threw their slider an awful lot more than ever before, and when you do that two things often happen. (1) You have more success. (2) You start to worry about arm woes (the article goes in to great detail about that). Still, if McHugh's arm holds up, he continues to locate all of his pitches including his slider well, there will be more success in 2015.

CONCLUSION

Colin McHugh is just outside the top-50 starting pitcher rankings at Fantasy Alarm, just as he is sitting on the outside of the top-50 SPs with the NFBC. Given the effort he posted last season the draft cost this season, the cost seems very reasonable. Is growth coming? No. Is regression on the horizon? Probably. Still, when you're in the realm of names like Matt Shoemaker, James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi on draft day there is a lot to like with McHugh.  

10 team lg: McHugh doesn't have the name recognition that will force you to reach at all. Could totally wait and bag McHugh as a back end starter. In many leagues this size he might end up as your 6/7 starter, and if so, you're in really good shape.

12 team lg: McHugh has the skills to be an SP4, but if you draft him as an SP5 you leave yourself some room for profit as well as guarding against the fact that some regression is coming.

15 team lg: Don't go all in. There's the slider/arm concern, the fact that his performance last season was a bit better than it should have been - especially in the ratio categories - and that he's yet to throw big innings at the big league level. I would be comfortable with him being my fourth starter. 

AL-only: The key here is trying your best to have him be your SP3. In an auction that could be accomplished, though to do so in a snake draft you will have to go earlier than I would like for a third arm. Bottom line - he's likely to be a better option in an auction, unless you are comfortable with him being your second starting pitcher.