Michael Bourn is fast. He’s not Billy Hamilton fast but he’s fast enough to make opposing batterymates and managers awfully nervous. Unfortunately he frequently failed to flash that talent last season, his first in an Indians uniform. He also dealt with injury, and no one wants to see that with a player who is in his 30′s. What does the recently turned 31 year old have to offer in 2014 and should you be interested in buying him at his lowest point since 2008?

From 2009-12 Bourn averaged 152 games played a season. He was a rock. No one questioned his durability. Now the question about his durability has arisen, and it’s become an issue. As I noted he turned 31 (in late December), and while that’s from from AARP days it’s starting to get up there a bit for a player who depends so heavily on his wheels. Let’s just start there with Bourn, his wheels and the concern we have to admit to now as the years roll up on his driver’s license. Here are Bourn’s steal totals for 2008-12.

2008: 41
2009: 61
2010: 52
2011: 61
2012: 42

That’s obviously 5-straight years with at least 40 steals. No other player in baseball could match that level of success. In fact, the only player who was able to have a run of 3-straight 40 steal seasons in that five year time span was B.J. Upton. No one could match Bourn, and that’s why Bourn was so often leaned on in the fantasy game. However, Bourn slumped to 23 steals last season. A couple of things to note. (1) Twenty-three steals is still a solid mark. Of course it’s a terrible mark if you’re hitting .263 with six homers. Obviously Bourn will need to have that steal number double to be a strong mixed league option in 2014. (2) Though he was injured often he still appeared in 130 games in 2013 so it’s not like he only played a half season or anything. That makes his tumble in the steals column even more difficult to understand. (3) As players age their skills diminish. As a hitter it’s sometimes possible to work around the loss of physical talent through “thinking” the game better, through study of mechanics/pitchers etc., or through subtle adjustments. That is not the case when your skill is base stealing. Once that little extra burst is gone, it’s never coming back. It’s would therefore be legitimate to question if Bourn still has the same level of “juice” to turn to. After all, since the modern era of baseball began in 1900 there have only been six men who have had four seasons of 40+ steals from age 31 on. Of that group, only Ichiro played in the 21st century.

Before we leave this discussion of speed speed take note of the following data points.

Bourn only had a .316 OBP last season, that after 4-straight seasons with a mark of at least .341. He not only missed games last season he also got on base less than usual (career .335). That obviously didn’t aid his attempt to steal bases.

Bourn averaged 51 steals a season from 2008-12. He was caught an average of 12 times a season during that five year run. Last year his steal total dipped to 23 and he was caught stealing… 12 times. Ugh.

His wSB mark (stolen base and caught stealing runs above average), thank you Fangraphs, was (-0.5). The mark had been at least 2.3 each of the previous six seasons.

The fact is that he just wasn’t the base runner we have grown to love in 2013. Given the totality of the evidence it would be unwise to predict a run to 50+ steals again. Damn near impossible really. Could he get to 40? Possible, but given everything unlikely. So, if Bourn is a 30-35 steal guy, what is his fantasy value?

As I noted above he hit .263 with a .316 OBP in 2013. That’s completely league average stuff. When coupled with his love of the strikeouts, he’s been over 130 punchouts in three of the past five seasons, Bourn becomes a tough nut to fully support. I can say this. His .338 BABIP last season was right on his career mark of .342. His 19.6 line drive rate was a bit low but only a point off his career mark. His 2.37 GB/FB ratio was just above his 2.30 career mark. All of that suggests his batting average could move upward a bit in 2014 but note that he is a career .271 batter who has hit less than .275 in three of the past four years. The fact is, he’s not the .294 hitter that we saw in 2011.

Because I have to for the sake of fantasy baseball, let’s tough on the other categories.

Bourn has never hit more than nine homers in a season. He hit six last year.

Bourn has reached 50 RBIs in 3-straight years. He’s never reached 60.

Bourn does score a good deal of runs since he bats at the top of the order and plays nearly every day, so if he returns to health it’s reasonable to expect his runs scored mark to increase from the 75 he scored last season. The previous four seasons he did average 93 runs a season.

Aging speedsters coming off down seasons are not strong building blocks in the fantasy game. That’s an even more accurate statement when the player under discussion is going to hurt you in the homer/RBI columns, and do little to help you in the average department. I don’t believe you can build a roster that wins with your main speed component being Bourn. Let’s turn that frown upside though. Bourn will cost half of what it took to add him to your roster last season. Heck, he may even cost less than that. Let Bourn fall in drafts and then pounce when the time comes (when the balance tips toward Bourn becoming a value add). Bourn will still steal bases, even if not at the elite rate we’re used to seeing, and he’s going to be on the field everyday and that will help him to score runs at a strong clip. He’s no longer a difference maker but as a spare part in the later rounds you could do a hell of a lot worse.

By Ray Flowers