Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s baseball slate features 10 games on the MLB schedule. We have games going on all day with plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/3

Our MLB Best Bets Today feature a potential late-night pitching duel as the Seattle Mariners host the Kansas City Royals. Plus, we dive into an AL East matchup between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. As always, don’t miss some top MLB player prop bets and other baseball picks below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

 

 


 

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners Predictions: Thursday, July 3rd

The Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals wrap up their four-game series tonight with an intriguing matchup. Both starting pitchers in this one are putting up All-Star numbers this season. Our MLB picks bank on both guys keeping this a low-scoring contest. 

Mariners starter Bryan Woo owns a 2.93 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. It appears his breakout 2024 campaign, in which he posted a 2.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, was the real thing. Woo had a couple of shaky outings early in June, but he’s allowed only two earned runs over his last three starts combined. 

The right-hander boasts some excellent home numbers as well. He has a 2.08 ERA and .174 batting average allowed at home this season. Woo did the same thing last year with a 2.47 ERA and .186 BA allowed at home. He’s taken full advantage of Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park. 

Woo will take on a Kansas City offense with subpar numbers against right-handed pitching this season (.299 wOBA, 87 wRC+). Over the past week vs. righties, the Royals have a .278 wOBA (25th in MLB) and 74 wRC+ (27th) in the split. They’re also averaging just 2.2 runs over the past 10 games. 

Meanwhile, KC starter Seth Lugo can hold his own as well. The veteran has a 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year. Despite having underwhelming advanced stats, Lugo continues to post solid outings. He’s also pitching well lately, with a 1.26 ERA over his past five starts. 

Lugo has been effective on the road with a 3.19 ERA and .200 batting average allowed across six away starts. This was the case last year, when the Royals’ righty had a 2.62 ERA and .216 BA allowed on the road. 

The Mariners’ offense has a league-low .221 batting average at home this season. Seattle also has weak numbers vs. right-handers over the past week, with a .277 wOBA (27th in MLB) and 82 wRC+ (24th). Lugo can limit the baserunners in this matchup. 

 

 

 

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Predictions: Thursday, July 3rd

Let’s now turn our attention to an AL East matchup. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have played an entertaining series this week and wrap things up on Thursday night. The Blue Jays can win four straight against the Yanks and take over first place in the division. 

Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt currently has a 4.29 ERA this season. It would be his career-worst in a full season. Yet, some positive regression should be coming based on a 3.65 FIP and 3.61 xFIP, which are both lower than his previous three seasons. The veteran’s 6.1% walk rate (80th percentile) and 34.8% hard-hit rate (84th) are encouraging. 

Bassitt has been much better at home with a 2.60 ERA and 2.82 FIP, compared to a 6.38 ERA and 4.67 FIP on the road. He’ll be looking to bounce back today after getting crushed for 9 runs on the road at Boston in his last outing. Before that, though, Bassitt had a 3.12 ERA over his previous four starts in June. 

The Yankees’ dangerous lineup always poses a threat offensively. Still, Bassitt has usually owned the Yanks over the years with a 1.63 ERA across six career starts. Plus, New York is just an average offense vs. right-handed pitching over the past week (.308 wOBA, 98 wRC+). 

On the other side, Clarke Schmidt toes the rubber for New York. The righty boasts an impressive 3.09 ERA this season, though his 3.71 FIP and 4.18 xFIP are notably higher. He’s benefited from a low .229 BABIP and a high 78.8% left-on-base rate so far. 

Schmidt has admittedly been excellent more often than not this season. However, today presents an opportunity to fade him. The Blue Jays have one of the best home offenses in the majors with a .343 wOBA (2nd), 122 wRC+ (2nd), .270 BA (3rd), and 17.1% K rate (2nd). They’re also hitting right-handers well lately with a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+ in the split over the past week. 

Plus, Schmidt has been a bit worse away from NY. He has a 3.71 ERA and 3.88 FIP on the road compared to a 2.76 ERA and 3.62 FIP at home. He’s also coming off one of his worst outings of the year, allowing 4 runs to the Athletics last weekend. 

There’s value on the Blue Jays at home here to win yet again over the Yanks. Toronto is 28-16 at home this season, including a 12-4 record in its last 16 home games. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 6-13 over their last 19 games overall. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 7/3

 

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