Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s baseball slate is a small one with just five games on the MLB schedule. Even so, there are plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/29

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an American League showdown between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros. We’ll also dive into an interleague matchup as the Seattle Mariners host the Washington Nationals. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

 

 


 

Rays vs. Astros Predictions: Thursday, May 29th

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros start up a four-game series tonight. The starting pitching matchup and respective offensive splits point to one clear side here. Let’s break down how to bet on this series opener to lead off our MLB picks. 

The Rays will start right-hander Shane Baz, who’s been shaky. Overall, he has a 4.94 ERA and 4.92 FIP through 10 starts this season. Lately, he’s struggled to a 7.82 ERA over his last five starts. Baz has some concerning advanced metrics with an 11.5% barrel rate (15th MLB percentile), 22.2% whiff rate (28th), 9.4% walk rate (36th), and 43.6% hard-hit rate (31st). 

In his last two road outings, Baz has allowed eight runs on 13 hits over 10.2 innings. He could struggle on the road again here. The Astros have one of the best home offenses this year with a .344 wOBA (4th in MLB), 126 wRC+ (3rd), and .283 batting average (1st). They're also crushing right-handed pitching over the past week (.361 wOBA, 138 wRC+, .308 BA). 

On the other side, rookie Ryan Gusto starts for Houston. The righty’s 4.58 ERA and 1.53 WHIP don’t offer much confidence at first glance. However, he’s been effective recently outside of one terrible start in which he allowed seven runs over 2.1 innings two weeks ago. In his six other latest appearances, Gusto owns a respectable 3.00 ERA over 21 innings while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. 

Gusto should be productive enough at home in this matchup. The Rays have one of the league’s worst road offenses this year with a .284 wOBA (27th in MLB), 81 wRC+ (26th), and .636 OPS (27th). Tampa is also just league-average against righties over the past two weeks (.306 wOBA, 101 wRC+). 

Finally, the situational spot also favors Houston tonight. The Rays are on the road for the first time in nearly two weeks. It’s also the first time they’ll travel outside the Eastern time zone in over a month. Meanwhile, the Astros are playing their seventh straight home game. Houston is also 20-10 at home this year and 11-4 in its last 15 home games. 

 

 


 

Nationals vs. Mariners Predictions: Thursday, May 29th

Thursday’s late-night matchup features the series finale between the Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners. These teams have split the first two games, with Seattle winning on Tuesday and Washington taking last night’s contest. Let’s see which side to back for this one. 

Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has a rough 5.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through eight starts this season. His 5.36 FIP and 5.57 xERA don’t offer much confidence either. The right-hander has some ugly home numbers thus far with a 12.34 ERA, .421 BA allowed, and .527 wOBA allowed across three home outings.

Hancock’s advanced stats are worrisome as well. First, his -14 Pitching Run Value at Statcast is in the bottom 1% of qualified MLB pitchers. Plus, he has just a 15.7% strikeout rate (11th percentile), .317 xBA (3rd), and 22.2% chase rate (5th) 

If you couldn’t tell, we’ll gladly fade Hancock today. The Nationals present a tough matchup. They boast a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .331 wOBA (10th in MLB), 18.8% strikeout rate (5th), .173 ISO (8th), and .260 BA (11th). Washington just knocked around George Kirby last night and can carry that into tonight’s game. 

On the other side, Nats starter MacKenzie Gore is the more trustworthy pitcher. He has a 3.47 ERA this year, but his 2.81 FIP and 2.43 xFIP are notably lower. Gore owns a career-high 36.3% K rate (98th percentile) with an elite 34.6% whiff rate (95th) and 32.3% chase rate (86th) as well. 

Gore admittedly has worse numbers on the road (4.26 ERA) than at home (2.64 ERA). However, he boasts a 3.09 FIP over his last seven starts coming into this one. The left-hander will face a Seattle offense that’s below-average at home with a .308 wOBA (23rd), .218 BA (28th), and 25.2% K rate (28th). 

The starting pitching matchup favors Washington on the road here. There’s value in backing the Nats to win on the moneyline and lead after five innings. 

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/29

 

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