Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s baseball slate is a smaller one with nine games on the MLB schedule. Even so, we have plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/22

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an NL East divisional rivalry matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. We’ll also dive into the AL West afternoon showdown between the Los Angeles Angels and Athletics. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

Braves vs. Nationals Predictions: Thursday, May 22nd

The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals wrap up their series on Thursday evening. We have AJ Smith-Shawver on the mound for Atlanta while Trevor Williams starts for Washington. Let’s break down how to bet on this NL East contest. 

Smith-Shawver has an impressive 2.33 ERA through seven starts this year. Yet, he could be in for some worse outings moving forward. The right-hander’s 4.88 xERA and 3.42 FIP are notably higher while benefiting from an 84.8% left-on-base rate and a low .280 BABIP. 

The Braves’ starter also has other worrisome advanced metrics despite the hot start. Smith-Shawver’s 10.6% walk rate (26th MLB percentile), 47.6% hard-hit rate (13th), and .282 xBA (15th) could come back to bite him in tougher matchups. Washington could be that today. 

The Nationals have been a top-tier offense vs. right-handed pitching lately. Over the past week vs. righties, they boast a .388 wOBA (5th in MLB), 148 wRC+ (5th), and .302 batting average (5th). Washington also has an above-average offense at home this year (.326 wOBA, 112 wRC+).  

On the other side, Williams has an ugly 5.91 ERA through nine starts this season. The Nats’ right-hander has been shaky recently with a 6.86 ERA over his last four outings. His 5.48 ERA at home this year doesn’t offer much confidence either. 

The Braves, meanwhile, are hitting righties well over the past week with a .352 wOBA (10th), 123 wRC+ (11th), and .309 BA (3rd). They also have a league-low 13.6% K rate in the split over this stretch. That’s tough for Williams, who has just an 18.4% K rate himself (26th percentile). 

Grab the over for both the first five innings and the full game. These teams had yesterday’s game rained out, so the offenses should be raring to go. An added bonus is that Washington has one of the worst bullpens in the league with a 6.41 pen ERA (29th). 

 

 


 

Angels vs. Athletics Predictions: Thursday, May 22nd

Let’s get some action on Thursday afternoon’s slate as the Athletics host the Angels. We should see scoring from both offenses in this series finale, especially considering the ballpark. Both starting pitchers are worth fading in today’s spot as well. 

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been productive this season, but he’s likely due for negative regression. The veteran lefty’s 4.85 FIP and 4.75 xFIP are notably higher than his current 3.04 ERA. He’s benefited from a low .210 BABIP and high 83.3% left-on-base rate, which would both be career-best marks. 

Anderson will face an Athletics offense that’s hitting left-handers well this year. The A’s have a .326 wOBA (8th in MLB), 113 wRC+ (9th), .436 SLG (4th), and .271 batting average (5th) against southpaws. They’re also a top-10 lineup at home during the month of May (.334 wOBA, 117 wRC+). 

Meanwhile, Athletics starter Luis Severino has been very up and down this year. His home/road splits are particularly eye-opening. Severino has a 6.75 ERA, 4.22 FIP, and .344 wOBA allowed at home compared to a 0.72 ERA, 2.66 FIP, and .224 wOBA on the road. Those home struggles are understandable at the hitter-friendly Sacramento ballpark. 

Severino’s issues at home could easily continue tonight. The Angels are quietly rolling offensively right now. They’re averaging 7.3 runs per game over the past six contests. Los Angeles has also been hitting right-handed pitching well over the past week (.361 wOBA, 135 wRC+, and .230 ISO). It’s a top-10 lineup in the split over the past two weeks as well (.342 wOBA, 121 wRC+). 

Furthermore, both bullpens should result in late-inning scoring. The Angels have a league-worst 6.82 pen ERA while the Athletics’ relievers have a 5.62 ERA (28th). Finally, the A’s have played to the over in 16 of 24 home games in Sacramento this season, for a potent 66.6% hit rate. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/22

 

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