Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for May 22! After taking the weekend off, we’ve had some time to digest that horrific Zac Gallen outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday and are ready to start back up for the week. I know that hindsight is 20/20, but I probably should have known. After publishing my betting picks, I looked around at what other analysts were focusing on and when I saw everyone was on Gallen, I probably should have pulled back. As I’ve alays said, “all o those beautiful hotels in Las Vegas were built on the public being wrong.” It is what it is. The day wasn’t a total bust though as we still hit a few nice bets.
- Friday’s Record: 2-3
- Season Record: 60-64-2
- Bankroll: -11.21 units
We’ve got a full 15-game slate on Monday, so let’s get to the MLB betting picks for today, including some potential same game parlay looks.
MLB Best Bets for May 22
While we could be looking at a late-game bullpen sweat, it’s very difficult to not back the Rangers, even on the road against the Pirates. Righthander Dane Dunning has been strong with back-to-back quality starts and he’s allowed just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. He’s certainly not infallible, but the Pirates are still struggling with the 10th-lowest wOBA (.305) against righthanded pitching and quickly came back down to Earth over their last two games following that Zac Gallen debacle. For me, it all comes down to this Texas offense which has the third-highest wOBA (.339) and the second-highest wRC+ (116) against righties this season. And over the past seven days, we’re talking about a team slash line of .314/.372/.531. They’ll face righty Luis Ortiz who just got beaten up by Detroit and probably won’t go more than four or five innings. So long as we don’t get our souls crushed by the Rangers bullpen, we should be fine.
Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’ve talked about the Cardinals finally breaking out of their shell and it’s been more and more evident after watching them take two of three from the Dodgers over the weekend and are 11-3 over their last 14 games. They have a .375 team wOBA over the past seven days and that comes with a .235 ISO and rock-solid plate discipline. Today they take on rookie southpaw who looked strong against the Rockies in Coors Field for his debut, but obviously gets a much tougher opponent in the Cardinals who own a .345 wOBA with a .190 ISO against lefties this season. Meanwhile, the Reds, who have struggled against lefties this season, take on Jordan Montgomery who may have had his ups and downs this season, but should be able to handle this lineup. I expect some runs to be scored in this one, but rather than focus on the 10-run over/under, I’ll focus on a Cardinals win by a few runs with some love for their hottest hitter right now.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Run Line (-120 on BetMGM)
Pick: Nolan Arenado over 0.5 RBI (+100 on BetMGM)
While I’ve never been a big BvP guy, it’s tough to ignore the numbers of what the current Dodgers lineup has done against Charlie Morton. Both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have wOBA totals over .400 against him and players like Max Muncy, J.D. Martinez and even David Peralta have been solid as well. On top of that, Morton has a career 1-2 record with a 4.94 ERA against the Dodgers. Not that it’s the same team, but he did face this lineup last season as well. The Dodgers are sitting on a .338 wOBA (fourth-highest) against righthanded pitching and their 11.3-percent walk rate shows the patient and methodical approach they are taking at the plate. We’re not going to worry about the winner of this game as both teams are tremendously talented, but we can definitely ook at how many runs the Dodgers will score against Morton and the Braves bullpen which is a little overworked over the last seven days and has a 3.68 ERA over that span.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total over 4 runs (-125 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Pick: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+108 on Caesars Sportsbook)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned