Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for today, May 11! We are slowly trying to work ourselves back into a groove, though we encountered some real bad luck with the usually reliable Tampa Bay Rays who found themselves getting shut down by Dean Kremer. As you’ve heard us discuss on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and even on the Cash It podcast, we’re going to experience some highs and lows as we settle into the 2023 MLB season and, right now, we are scratching and clawing our way back into it. Once we get closer to where we need to be, we’ll start shooting for some longer odds in a same game parlay or something, but I need a few days with some consistent wins before we try to hang it all out there. I feel like we’re close, though a real short slate today might not have as much fill-game value as we’d like. Let’s take a look.

  • Season Record: 50-54-2
  • Bankroll: -10.35 units


MLB Best Bets for May 11 

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

While the Giants spent the early part of the season struggling against lefthanded pitching, the landscape of the lineup has changed and we are now starting to see the bats improve against southpaws. Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater, both hit lefties well and are finally healthy while rookie call-up Casey Schmitt is a developing right-handed bat with tremendous raw power. They’ll take on southpaw Tommy Henry whose 5.17 ERA and lack of strikeouts tilts the scales towards some of these Giants bats. Meanwhile, Alex Cobb takes the hill and has been rock-solid with a 2.01 ERA, a 63.1-percent ground ball rate and 2.97 xFIP. While the DBacks have hit righties well this season, the first couple of times through the order are going to be tough. We expect Cobb to minimize early damage and the Giants bats to be aggressive against Henry.

Pick: San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-105 on BetMGM)

San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins

While I don’t want to take anything away from what Bailey Ober has done through his first three starts this season, there are two things to look at very closely. Fist off, his opponents have been the Guardians, Royals and Nationals. Not exactly a group of powerhouse lineups, are they? Second, his peripherals show that regression is coming. A 4.72 xFIP with a 0.98 ERA? Doesn’t quite add up, does it? Yu Darvish will work against a Twins team that has averaged just two runs per game over their last five and has a .243 wOBA with a 24-percent K-rate over the last seven days. We’ll avoid bullpens here and stick with the plus-odds for a first-five bet.

Pick: San Diego Padres First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (+105 on Caesars Sportsbook)