As the 2023 MLB season continues, you can see just how difficult betting baseball on a daily basis can be. Here at Fantasy Alarm, the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks started off hot but have cooled significantly to the point where almost all the winnings in our bankroll we built over those first two weeks have diminished. We are continuously looking for trends to follow, but as we continue to investigate, we’ve found that there really aren’t any great ones to follow right now. Straight-up money line bets for home and away teams are currently split 50.5/49.7-percent in favor of the visitors. Favorites are ahead 61.7-percent, but are we really looking to bet a minus-275 line? Over/unders are currently split 51.5/48.5 in favor of the over, so that’s another tough exercise. But maybe we can check out some more run-line bets as there does seem to be a bit more of a lean as away teams are covering the run-line at 59.1-percent with away favorites at 58.5-percent and away dogs are at 59.4-percent. Now I’m not saying we’re going to live and die by this current trend. We’ll have to look at the value we are getting. You just need to see how close it’s been just one month into the season. Maybe that will help you with your frustration after watching the Rangers bullpen collapse and the Cardinals failing to show up against Alex Cobb.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 38-30-1
  • Bankroll: +2.95 units

With a full 15-game slate today, let’s see what looks good.

Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds

We’re going right back to this game today, especially with this pitching match-up. While I’ve never been a huge fan of Martin Perez, you cannot deny what the lefty has been doing recently. Last year, he shocked the baseball world with 12 wins and a 2.89 ERA and this year he’s sitting on a 3.38 ERA and has won three of his four starts. The ballpark is a pain in the ass, but the Reds have been miserable against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .294 wOBA with a 26-percent strikeout rate. Perez should be able to contain them for the majority of time he is on the mound. With Luke Weaver on the mound for the Reds, we will happily invest in the Rangers bats and their .348 wOBA against righties this season. Now the question is, how safe do we play it? We can take the Rangers on the money line with a little juice (-140 on DK Sportsbook) or we can chase some plus-odds and take them on the run line. Despite the Rangers bullpen meltdown yesterday, they still have a 2.00 ERA over the last seven days, so I’m going to risk it for the biscuit. Will I regret it? I don’t think so.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 Run Line (+115 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Here’s another game where I wanted to chase the away team on the run line, but with the Blue Jays being such overwhelming favorites and the fact that Jose Berrios has seemingly settled down over his last two starts, we’re going to instead look at the over/under here. With regard to Berrios, I’m not 100-percent sold on him. We’ve seen far too many blow-ups since he landed in Toronto and, if you look at the data, there are a few players in Chicago’s lineup who have familiarity and have hit him well. On the other side is Mike Clevinger who has also had an up-and-down season through four starts and has had issues with his command at times. The Jays bats have started to wake up and are posting a .330 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Overs have had a slight advantage thus far and I believe this pitching match-up will help us lean properly.

Pick: White Sox/Blue Jays over 9 runs (-115 on BetMGM)

Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies just took three of four from the Rockies to close out the weekend and are now hitting righthanded pitching well, posting the fourth-best wOBA (.351) against them. However, they are still striking out almost 25-percnt of the time against righties and, let’s face it, no one on Colorado has the talent of Mariners starter Logan Gilbert who takes the mound tonight. Gilbert has fantastic swing-and-miss stuff, he doesn’t pitch to a whole lot of contact and he also doesn’t walk a lot of guys. Like any pitcher, he can be prone to a bad inning which is what happened to him in his last start, but he quickly settles down and never lets things get away from him that much. While I don’t expect him to shit down the Phillies lineup, I do think he can contain them. On the mound for Philadelphia, Bailey Falter has not only been inconsistent, but he also hasn’t been getting much in the way of run support. He tossed a quality start in his last outing against the White Sox, but he got almost nothing from the Phillies offense. We’ll back the better pitcher, and yes, another road team.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Money Line (-120 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned