Josh Bell arrived to the majors with strong metrics within his discipline with fantasy owners hoping his power would develop. In 2016, Bell blasted 26 home runs, but with a .255/.334/.466 slash line. While the power enhanced his appeal, it felt like Bell could hit for a better average. Last year, Bell slightly improved in the category, but the power cratered to only 12 home runs in 148 games.

Bell produced ground balls almost half of his at-bats in 2018 capping his power and frustrating his owners. This depressed his preseason price tag in drafts and auctions, which means his owners could be reaping the rewards from his hot start. Through 38 games, Bell’s already launched 10 home runs in 142 at-bats with 35 RBI and a robust .324/.395/.655 slash. Accounting for Bell’s inflated BABIP, his average will migrate to the mean, but, how much along with the power surge will decide his final outcome.

Before delving into his expected statistics, according to Fangraphs, Bell’s increased his line drive rate by over five percent compared to last year without sacrificing his power or hard hit percentage. In fact, Bell’s producing more power despite hitting more fly balls. Check out his rolling game chart from the last three years:

In an almost perfect storm, Bell’s generating more fly balls, with a spike in hard hit rate and carrying over the gains to his home run per fly ball percentage. Where it gets interesting, Bell’s only slightly increased his swinging strike percentage with a one percent drop in contact, but his chase rate almost aligns with last season. This fuels his present .331 isolated power.

According to Statcast, Bell’s breaking out in regards to exit velocity with an average of 94.9 MPH this year. By far the highest of his career. He’s already racked up 17 barrels of his 108 batted ball events for a 15.7 barrel percentage, more than doubling his rate from last season. Staying with Statcast, Bell’s ground ball rate of 38.9 percent bodes well to sustaining the power.

Plus, Bell owns a .312 expected batting average and .631 expected slugging. These suggest Bell’s due for some regression, but, he’s not too far from his actual production so far. Bell’s also upped his average fly ball and line drive exit velocity to 97.5 MPH, tied for 26th in baseball. And, check out his player page graphics in terms of his 2019 production:

This season seems to be a culmination of Bell’s talents coming to fruition. Maintaining his discipline metrics while improving his power translates with Bell moving into his power peak years. Here’s his rest-of-the-season projections from two different sites:

  • Josh Bell , THE BAT ROS: 112 games, 412 at-bats, 60 runs, 18 home runs, 63 RBI, three stolen bases; .268/.355/.467

  • Josh Bell , Steamer ROS: 115 games, 425 at-bats, 60 runs, 18 home runs, 66 RBI, three stolen bases; .273/.363/.467

Armed with a career 35.3 on-base percentage, it seemed like only a matter of time for Bell to breakout. Given health, Bell’s pacing towards 28 home runs this year with an average near .290 with a chance at 100 RBI. At a time when fantasy owners crave production without sacrificing average, Bell makes for an alluring target.

Track how his power continues to progress this year and if Bell can maintain the gains in exit velocity, his breakout will continue. Fighting off the potential ground ball regression would seal it. Here’s to hoping Bell stays on the path of the perfect storm illustrated in his rolling game chart.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com