2021 MLB Draft Guide: Sweet Spots and Max Exit Velocity

Buzzwords in the fantasy industry can spill over into baseball broadcasts. Terms like launch angle, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage continue to push themselves to the forefront despite the “old school” dismissing the merits of analytics. It's been noted by other analysts the higher a batter's maximum exit velocity could portend an uptick in production.

Since pitchers affect launch angles more than hitters, using sweet spot percentage (8-to-32 degrees) from total batted ball events can assess how well a batter makes contact. When using sweet spot percentage, it could insulate a hitter's ability to hit for average which needs to be accounted for when Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy miss the first charts at their positions despite their power upside.

However, how useful these two data points varies. Taking them into account by position in an attempt to identify potential fantasy targets, these two results lead the way in research but charts also include fly ball and line drive average exit velocity (FB/LD EV), hard hit rate (HH%) and barrels.

In an effort to associate the outcomes explored to an expanded sample size, each position will include a search from the second half of 2019 through and including the results from 2020 honing in on a launch angle between 20-to-35 degrees (research finds over 80 percent of home runs occur in this range) sorted by barrels with an average exit velocity of 97 MPH or better. Focusing on quality of contact with a higher exit velocity could help locate hitters who may not succumb to a decline in power if MLB deadens baseballs as reported by Eno Sarris of the The Athletic.

For those interested in how to create such a search, here's how to set it up on the Statcast search tab:

Once the information aggregates, clicking on the player reveals a list of charts to sort out spray charts, radial charts, zone profiles and more:

For instance, pull side home runs prove ideal in order to defray the predicted effects of the adjusted COR (coefficient of restitution) taking an average of five feet of flight off of batted ball events in the air (fly balls or line drives). A hitter who hits most of his home runs to center field could be adversely affected along with batters with a propensity to hit the ball to the opposite field.

With all of this in mind, how sweet spot percentage and maximum exit velocity apply may not be as important as the other indicators included but José Abreu spiked his max exit velocity in 2019 to 117.9 MPH ahead of his Most Valuable Player Award in 2020.

Catcher

Using at least 90 batted ball events as the sorting criteria to provide enough players at each position, starting with catcher in this exercise sheds some light on a shallow position. This chart shows the top five along with six names of interest after for its top-10. James McCann missed with only 69 batted ball events but included due to projected to start for the Mets in 2021:

For phase two of the research, now a chart displaying the number of batted ball events from the second half of 2019 through last year with a launch angle between 20-to-35 degrees, an exit velocity of at least 97 MPH, how many actual home runs, plate appearances and home run per plate appearance rate:

Many allow Yan Gomes to drift in drafts taking the name brand in Yadier Molina , anyone checking these charts knows better. Rebound seasons could be in the offing for both Mitch Garver and Carson Kelly as post-hype targets with power upside. As for Perez, he missed all of 2019 yet makes this list with a strong 2020 campaign. He's also playing for a contract but taking Will Smith of the Dodgers as the second overall catcher in 2021 remains the play.

First Base

Keeping the requirements similar to catcher in regards to at least 90 batted ball events, here's the top-10 first baseman in sweet spot percentage along with their respective maximum exit velocity:

Perhaps it's a bit too soon to give up on Joey Votto , especially given his reduced price point in drafts. Another name of intrigue who missed the list above, Evan White . He recorded a 112.8 MPH maximum exit velocity his rookie season with a 96.9 fly ball and line drive average exit velocity, a 52 percent hard hit rate along with 14 barrels in only 99 batted ball events. White's barrel per plate appearance percentage tied Matt Olson .

Here's the top-10 in batted ball events between 20-to-35 degrees with an average exit velocity of 97 MPH or better with their actual home runs from the second half of 2019 through last year:

There's mixed feelings about Voit's small sample size from 2020 but his batted ball events form this sample hold up and his home runs per plate appearance only trails Pete Alonso since the second half of last season.

Second Base

Although the first two positions illustrated some intriguing power options the sweet spot reflect more batting average options instead with the exception of Brandon Lowe of the Rays:

Fantasy owners can take solace in knowing Ozzie Albies suffered from lingering wrist issues last year but he's still not discounted in drafts. As for power candidates, a new position awaits Keston Hiura but any rebound in batting average and he could bounceback in 2021:

For those kicking dirt on Jose Altuve , check out his numbers from the playoffs and his reliance on pulling the ball in Houston for home runs. One name who may suffer from the deadened baseball, Cavan Biggio who sprays the ball all over the field but may lose home runs to center.

Third Base

Perhaps no position displays disparity in sweet spot percentage in comparison to fantasy value than third base. Key on the maximum exit velocity for two of the third basemen (Matt Chapman and José Ramírez ) and welcome to the no idea how to value Dylan Moore portion of this process:

Not making the list above, but worth noting, Rafael Devers increased his maximum exit velocity to a robust 116.7 MPH last year if looking for a third baseman with upside at a depressed price in 2021. Now for the second chart in this exercise:

Two deeper league sleepers exist in Kyle Seager and Evan Longoria on this list. Just missing this batted ball event list, José Ramirez, Miguel Sanó and Yoán Moncada all tied with 19 apiece.

Shortstop

Seeing who makes and misses the first charts does not prove too damaging for projecting fantasy statistics but quality of contact does get weighted for expected batting averages. Here's the top players at shortstop according to Statcats in sweet spot percentage with maximum exit velocity included:

Anyone nervous about Trevor Story with Nolan Arenado leaving town can view his numbers compared to Dansby Swanson above and pass on him in the first round. After years of fading Corey Seager , his results jump off the charts, especially his max exit velocity and barrel total. Here's how the position stacks up dialing back to the second half of last year for power:

It's amazing the amount of statistics Fernando Tatis Jr. put up in such small major league samples. He's yet to incur a slump outside of an injury so it remains to be seen how Tatis Jr. adjusts once the league does to him. Trea Turner continues to shine and his uptick in power pairs well with his stolen base upside. Not many notice, but Willy Adames continues to improve, especially in his power metrics.

Outfield

There's something for everyone in the outfield, a deep position for 2021. Starting off with sweet spot percentage for a top-10, many names one would expect but with some intriguing results as well:

A hotly debated player for 2021 may be Marcell Ozuna . He surged in 2020 with a 115.6 MPH maximum exit velocity, 96.6 MPH average fly ball and line drive exit velocity and 26 barrels. However, in the search below on Statcast, he only recorded 14 batted ball events with a launch angle between 20-to-35 degrees with an exit velocity of 97 MPH or higher compared to 27 for Kole Calhoun who missed the top-10 list.

Fun fact, George Springer leads qualified outfielders with 35 home runs since the start of the second half of 2019 through last season. Teoscar Hernández made the bust list not because of his power surge, rather a return to a batting average anywhere near his 2020 mark of .289 in 50 contests. While many may be out on Kyle Schwarber , he could rebound in Washington at a reduced price point.

Putting a bow in this first installment of analytics, it appeared sweet spot percentage could help identify hitters with power upside. After further digging, it aligns more with expected batting average, a reactive number not a proactive one. However, maximum exit velocity could signal a hitter primed for a bigger season in the year ahead which bodes well for some of the highlighted players within this piece. Next year, focusing on the gains from year to year along with the batted ball events between 20-to-35 degrees with an exit velocity of at least 97 MPH stays.

Happy searching on Statcast.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.co