2019 MLB Prospect Report: Boston Red Sox

Tigers fans will know the feeling Red Sox Nation is just starting to feel themselves. Dave Dombrowski loves to mortgage the future for the present, and hey given last year’s results we can’t fault him for it. However, it does mean that when or if the traded for players leave, a la Craig Kimbrel this offseason, there isn’t much left to show for it down on the farm.

There are some intriguing guys in the system, most are boom-or-bust type prospects but if they pan out, the system will look a lot better than it does today

Minor League Affiliates

Rankings

Top-100 Prospects – 1

Organization Rank – 29th

Divisional Rank – 5th

Top Prospects in the System

1. Michael Chavis (3B) – The 26^th overall pick of the 2014 Amateur Draft has been progressing steadily through the Boston system until reaching Triple-A Pawtucket late in the year. The biggest news he made recently though was his 80-game suspension to start the 2018 season after falling a drug test prior to it. His 2017 year, the best of his career so far on pure numbers, saw him it .282/.347/.563 with 31 homers, 94 RBI, 89 runs, and two steals in 126 games with a 21.5 K% and 7.4 BB%. After returning from the suspension, he played 46 games and hit .298/.381/.538 with nine homers, 36 runs, 27 RBI, and three steals with 33 games spent at Double-A Portland. That’s not a bad showing by any means in a short season, in fact it extrapolates to 32 HR, 127 runs, 95 RBI, and 11 steals in a full 162 game season. The problem with Chavis in general is that he’s really only a one tool guy with power being his only plus-tool and everything else is pretty close to average and below average. At 5’10” and 216 lbs., he’s not your typical build of a guy that plays the hot corner and the wider, more barrel looking, build and that could play a role in his so-so defense at the corner as he’s committed 20, 11, and 17 errors respectively and then last season six in 46 games which puts him at 21 for 162 games. That being said, they did move him to first base late in the season and in the Arizona Fall League and he played nearly error free ball there in a small sample size. As you can see below, Chavis’ swing goes from a bit open to a bit closed as he loads and then he tends to wind up a bit off-balance by the end given his ankle roll on the front side. He also has a major tendency to have an upper-cut swing path to generate his power from, and that’s evidenced by his Line Drive percentage being in the mid-teens his whole career and the FB% being in the upper-30s in that same time. To make it to the majors, he will likely move to first base (where the Red Sox need a better option) and his swing will likely produce 25+ homers but, expect the average to drop down to the .260-.270 range.

ETA: 2020

2. Triston Casas (1B/3B) – Leading up to the June 2018 Draft, Casas was a highly-coveted prospect for those seeking plus-power in the corner infield. In fact this is what was written about him in the MLB Draft coverage from Fantasy Alarm “Casas is right up there with Nolan Gorman in terms of power they can bring into the batter’s box. However, the rest of his hit tool is streaky at best. When’s he locked in, he can be a force at the plate, winning the WBSC International Baseball Player of the Year for his efforts in the 18U Baseball World Cup. The biggest question is whether he can make enough contact to utilize that pop. The other question is his defense and whether he will stick at 3B and most, including me, believe first base only will be his role if his bat pans out.” Here’s the thing though, his debut season was short-lived, due to a torn thumb ligament, with just two games played in Rookie ball as he went 0-for-4 at the dish. Casas has 60-grade power on the 20-80 scale but his slow-footed (30-grade speed) 6’4”- 238 lbs. frame is still likely meant for first base, especially given the depth at the hot corner ahead of him in Devers and Chavis.

ETA: 2022

3. Jay Groome (LHP) – Groome, heading into the 2016 draft, was considered to be arguably the top prospect available. However, the southpaw slipped to 12^th overall due to signability concerns and some off the field issues. Boston nevertheless couldn’t resist taking a potential future lefty ace in the middle of the first round. The biggest issue that Groome has had since being taken is staying the field as the 2017 season ended prematurely due to a lat strain and forearm soreness and then he missed the entirety of the 2018 season with Tommy John Surgery in May of last year. All-in-all he has put together 62 innings of work on the mound between Rookie ball, low-A, and A-ball combining for a 5.37 ERA, 3.94 FIP, .219 BAA, 11.9 K/9, 4.94 BB/9, and a 1.39 WHIP. Overall, yes, it’s a small sample size but that isn’t great for a guy that is supposed to be a burgeoning ace and it speaks to control issues and being far too easy to hit even in the lowest levels of the minors. Now all that being said, he is still just 20 years old and a lanky 20-year-old at that, coming in at 6’6” and 220 lbs. which means he’s pretty much like most prep arms that are lanky, it takes time to fill-in to the frame and gain command. The arsenal features two plus-offerings and a third that’s average with a mid-90s fastball with run and a great power curve being the top two choices and the changeup bringing up the rear. The delivery is clean and repeatable and with more strength in the frame, control and health should be less of concerns.

ETA: 2022

4. Bobby Dalbec (3B) – Dalbec was a three-year starter at Arizona but was still young for that level of experience, just 20 years old, when he was drafted in June of 2016. Part of trend in the Boston system, straight power, Dalbec has the best power tool in the system, even more than the top-prospect in Chavis with that being his calling card. The swing has some comps to that of Kris Bryant ’s in terms of how he loads and his hands at the start of the swing. Now to be clear there are plenty more holes in his swing than Bryant’s has, but the raw power generation and bat speed is similar. Dalbec played 129 games in 2018 between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland and combined for a .257/.361/.558 slash line with 32 homers, 109 RBI, 73 runs, and three steals (though his 30-grade run tool doesn’t portend a lot of steals in his future) all over 455 at bats. To give you an idea of the power, that line paces out to a 40-homer, 137-RBI, 92-run, season in 162 games which is a better line than Chavis’ best season has been. The 23-year-old third baseman should be able to stay there with average defense and an already 60-grade arm and the offensive profile, his problem is the depth in the system as you can see with three third baseman in the top-four of this system not including Devers already in the majors.

ETA: 2020

5. Tanner Houck (RHP) – Houck was a first round pick in the 2017 out of the University of Missouri as a three-year starter for the Tigers. His sidearm, sling-type delivery reminds some, including me, of Chris Sale but from the opposite side of the rubber and that delivery also caused him to slide a bit in the draft due to lack of projection as a starter. However, Boston likes him in the starter role and at 6’5” and 215 lbs. he should have the frame to withstand the innings load on his arm. Stuff wise, Houck features and mid-90s fastball that has very nice run when he has everything working and can top 97 with the two-seamer. The two other pitches in the arsenal are an above-average slider and a league average changeup which can both keep hitters off-balance as he throws them well out of the same arm slot and same arm speed. The problem that he’s run into, while early in his career, is his control with a 4.54 BB/9 rate in his first full season in the pros. The 4.24 ERA in 2018 belies the end of the season run he went on where in the last six starts he pitched 35 innings and allowed just eight earned runs (four of which came in one start) for a 2.06 ERA with 41 Ks and six walks. Early in the campaign he brought his arm slot higher and his stuff flattened out and became much more hittable, so from July on Houck went back to what he knows best and did the ¾ to sidearm, crossfire action and then results were immediate. If he can get his control figured out and tamed, he’s got number three starter stuff.

ETA: 2020

Others To Watch In The System

Darwinzon Hernandez (LHP)

• He’s worked as a starter almost exclusively in the minors using a 70-grade Fastball, 60-grade Curveball, and 50-grade Changeup as a lefty.
• Hernandez pitched to a 3.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .220 BAA, 11.2 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 in 107 in 2018 but had a 10-start stretch of a 1.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .209 BAA, and a 74:25 K:BB ratio.
• Recently added to 40-man roster and will move between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 and may be shifted to a bullpen arm.

ETA: 2020

C.J. Chatham (SS)

• Chatham is a high-contact middle infield type who should be able to post .300-plus seasons in the big leagues.
• Not much power to speak of as he’s hit nine total homers in 156 career minor league games with four coming in a 27-game span in 2016.
• Shortstop is his natural position and his gap-to-gap flat swing-plane profiles well there as does his double-digit steals potential.

ETA: 2020

Durbin Feltman (RHP)

• Feltman was drafted out of TCU in 2018 in the third round and is expected to be a faster riser through the system.
• In 23.1 innings between Low-A, A-ball, and High-A, Feltman posted a 1.92 ERA, 1.09 FIP, 13.8 K/9, and 1.93 BB/9 while collecting four saves.
• He could very well be closing out games for Boston in the second half of the 2019 season if all goes according to plan.

ETA: 2019

Nick Northcut (3B)

• Northcut was an 11^th-round pick in 2018 but he possesses third-round talent. A commitment to baseball power Vanderbilt was a concern of most teams.
• His debut in Rookie and Short Season A-ball wasn’t great (in a small sample) with a .223/.303/.319, two HR, 25 RBI and 16 R in 47 games.
• Solid tools profile that could have him produce 30-plus home runs a year while hitting in the .280 range and playing a good defense at the hot corner.

ETA: 2022

Gilberto Jimenez (OF)

• Just 18 years old, his game revolves around his 70-grade speed and his 55-grade hit tool as he’s an extreme ground ball hitter (60.5% in 2018) and uses his speed to beat out the grounders he slaps in the infield.
• He was purely a right-handed hitter when he was signed but became a switch-hitter afterward and hit better from the left side of the plate (.350) than the right side (.204) in his 67-game stretch in Dominican Rookie League.
• The raw athleticism is there for him to be a prolific steals threat, Jimenez just has to learn how to use it first (caught 14 times in 30 attempts thus far). Overall should hit for a .290 average with a 10-homer ceiling and a 45-plus steals upside, similar to Trea Turner but less pop.

ETA: 2022

Travis Lakins (RHP)

• Switched from being a full-time starter to more of a reliever in 2018 as he got to the upper levels of the system
• Has four-plus pitches as a starter (Fastball, Cutter/Slider, Changeup, Curveball) but as a reliever uses just Fastball and Slider for his mix.
• He saved three games in 2018 and in 54.1 innings posted a 2.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.44 K/9, .189 BAA and 3.16 K/BB ratio making him a dark horse for saves in Boston this year.

ETA: 2019